➡️At the time of writing this post, we fell from a high of 73777 to 53485, which is 27.5%
And now is the right moment to “gather stones” and look at yourself from the outside.
1️⃣Last year I made a forecast that the “bull run” would begin in the “May 15-June 15” corridor (some were often confused and wrote in the comments that I meant the alt season, no! I was talking about BTC specifically, but there was a remark , that if it starts with a “bull run”, then the alt-season will start with it). Recently in a video I said that you need to wait 1-2 months to sum up whether it has started or not, but looking at the market structure, this is definitely not the beginning of a bull run, neither technically nor visually (in terms of price).
Therefore, this forecast did not come true❌
2️⃣In one of the videos on Thursday (now it’s “alt day”), around spring, I said that ALL altcoins will strive for their “previous high” because at that time there was strength, technically I was looking at it + I believed that the forecast for the beginning of the bull run would be realized, so I made the following conclusions, of course, corrections were allowed, but at the moment the price of many altcoins is almost at the 2022-2023 mark.
Therefore, this forecast did not come true❌
3️⃣The current global forecast is related to Wyckoff's logic. I always say that the logic is correct, only the authors who draw it can make mistakes, I still remain true to the logic and the fact that we are in the reaccumulation zone (we will talk in more detail in the coming videos). The key here is that I do not believe that the bear market has begun globally or this is the end of growth, we will see if it goes over 73777, whether it will be in 2024 or 2025 does not matter.
I expected and expect the beginning of the global bear market and crypto winter to be summer/autumn 2025.
4️⃣The current local forecast was:
EMA200 (today it is 58200) should keep the price near itself, initially I expected to see a rebound from it, but the situation in the crypto industry decided otherwise, we are still near it, although below the moving average; in trading, being below EMA200 is considered a bearish trend.
Therefore, the key thought and expectation about EMA200 was not realized❌
5️⃣I often introduced you and showed you about various support areas, now from the important and key we have support for 1 month. TF is EMA10, now it is equal to: 53875, below only EMA50 for 1 week. TF, now it is 51250. Thus, these are key support zones for me, as it was.
We will talk in more detail about EMA in the coming days.
6️⃣I will be consistent in my forecasts, let me remind you that everything that happens happened the day before and began before the release of inflation data and rates from the Fed this month, we’ll talk in the coming days, we’ll remember!
The next event is inflation on Thursday, July 11th.
➡️Let’s draw the line:
-It’s too early to sum up the forecast for the month, exactly, I haven’t identified a single trajectory, now the closest one is red with a deviation, taking into account yesterday’s update along a possible arc to 54700 also already has an error of 2.21%, nevertheless I I wouldn't rush to conclusions.
But certainly in the form in which I wanted to see the trajectory, it’s not there❌
-EMA200 has not yet completely fallen and given up, I would draw conclusions after an attempt to retest EMA200 + oversold status is imposed by RSI (of course, it can be even lower), there is a redistribution for everything. EMA200 also has a protector EMA10 for 1 month. TF.
-I assume that as the weeks progress, another touch to EMA50 for 1 week. TF, again, if this happens, I see it either now immediately in the near future or no earlier than in a couple of weeks (in the case of a TF, this is a couple of candles of this TF).
-I view this fall as a correction before the last global impulse wave of growth.
⚠️Important areas:
✅Support: 54700, 53875, 53100, 51250, 50800, 49150, 45700, 45000, 43200, 42750
❌Resistance: 56550, 56800, 58200, 59650, 60900, 61500, 62150, 63600, 64400, 65200
#BTC #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #crypro
