Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
Not long ago, legendary trader GCR made an impressive remark. In response to comments on the market in June, he said that the current situation is more like the late summer after the DeFi wave in 2020, or equivalent to the summer of 2021, and we are still in a bull market.
This response made many market players look forward to the coming July. Just when everyone was eager to bid farewell to May and June, thinking that July would usher in a "turnaround", the market played a big joke on investors. The German government sold nearly 10,000 bitcoins, and there were still 40,000 to be sold. Later, Mentougou paid a huge compensation of 142,000 bitcoins. After testing a small transfer yesterday, nearly 50,000 bitcoins were transferred to a new wallet address and a suspected exchange address today.
Stimulated by the negative news, BTC fell below $60,000 and then fell sharply. After falling below $57,000 yesterday, it once fell below $54,000 today, and fell to a minimum of $53,485. Ethereum also fell below $3,000, falling to a minimum of $2,810. Other altcoins generally fell by more than 10%, and some altcoins even fell by more than 20%.
Panic in the crypto market even hit a new low since September 12, 2023. Where will the market go in the future?
dForce founder Mindao: There may not be a bull market for altcoins
dForce founder Mindao tweeted that we are in a very different cycle of market structure, and now a lot of liquidity will flow into stablecoins instead of BTC and ETH. This does not mean that the main currencies in the market will not rise, but that kind of good times of certainty may be hard to come by. We may not usher in the altcoin season.
In addition, the distribution of legal currency compensation in Mentougou has begun, which may help ease market panic.
Blockstream CEO: There have been 6 30% declines in the bull market in history. Buy on dips is recommended
Blockstream CEO Adam Back said that there have been six 30% declines in the bull market in history, and this decline is about 26%. The recent decline is not large, and investors are advised not to panic and buy on dips.
OX.FUN founder Zhu Su: Repurchased ETH at $2,900
Zhu Su, founder of OX.FUN, tweeted today that he had sold Ethereum at around $3,300 and bought it back at $2,900. A few hours later, he tweeted again that you will not see this decline on the chart in fifty years.
Santiment: Historic panic on social media, opportunities for the bold
Crypto analytics firm Santiment said that as the market continues to fall, historic panic has emerged on social media. It is rare that there are more mentions of "sell" than "buy" in an hour. But in the past 24 hours, this has been seen, including the largest ratio of negative comments to positive comments since 2024. For bold traders, this is an opportunity, and some may want to be true contrarian investors and buy when the crowd is angry and frustrated.
WOO X COO Willy Chuang: In the long run, the negative impact will gradually dissipate
WOO X COO Willy Chuang said that Mt. Gox’s transfer of 47,228 BTC marks the beginning of its repayment process, as a potential massive sell-off has sparked some market panic, exacerbated by various factors including German BTC sales, Federal Reserve issues, and U.S. election uncertainty.
Despite the concerns, the long-term impact may not be that severe as the market gradually absorbs the selling pressure. According to Mt. Gox's 2023 data report, the actual selling amount is much smaller than the total amount, because many creditors have sold their claims to funds due to the long compensation cycle. Therefore, these claims are mainly held by institutional entities, and only 226 creditors own more than 50% of Mt. Gox claims. It is expected that there will be panic in the market in the short term, but in the long run, these negative factors may gradually dissipate.
Chris Burniske, Partner at Placeholder: You can’t get crazy returns without huge downside risk
Chris Burniske, a partner at Placeholder, tweeted that after SOL rose about 10 times in 2020, it fell 80% later in the same year. The following year, in 2021, the number doubled again by more than 100 times. It then fell 97% to around $8 in 2022, and has since risen about 20 times. ETH and BTC also had similar volatility in the early days.
For the complainers, you can’t have huge crazy returns without big downside risk.
If you are used to being scared by the market, you will gradually become numb to this kind of decline and choose to ignore it. Whatever happens here, I see opportunities.
