1. What has happened in the past few months
Two months ago, we found through on-chain data that long-term investors had a large turnover. We kept 35-50% of our cash, waiting for a pullback. During this period, BTC once rose to $72,000. Despite the pressure to increase positions, it quickly fell back to around $60,000.
I have always emphasized the transparency and importance of on-chain data, and I am not stingy about sharing our right and wrong. Since the establishment of the fund, our biggest misjudgment was the failure to correctly predict the time of ETH's ETF approval. We built a position in the middle of February, and reduced our position in April due to pressure, missing out on 50% of the gains. In the end, the Biden administration pressured the SEC to pass the ETF in late May in order to win over crypto voters. These records are all on my X account (@jhy256).
We have been emphasizing that the movement of chips on the chain is the most real, and only investors who really hold positions will be responsible for the market results. The media does not hold positions, and the information is often inaccurate, and it will increase the greed and fear of the market. The current market reaction verifies the validity of the on-chain data. After we significantly reduced our positions, BTC has fallen below $54,000. We are fortunate to continue to increase our positions throughout the decline, and we still hold more than 25% in cash. It should be noted that less than a month ago (June 7, 2024), the price of BTC was 72,000.

2. Today’s market volatility
Today’s market volatility is mainly due to the possible sale of about 200,000 bitcoins by the German government and MTGox (the largest Bitcoin exchange bankruptcy in history), equivalent to a $10 billion sell-off, which is 2/3 of the net inflow of funds since the BTC ETF was passed.

3. Future Outlook
Foreseeable selling pressure: Bitcoin confiscated by the government, the bankruptcy liquidation of MTGox, and the bankruptcy liquidation of FTX are all being gradually digested.
Foreseeable buying: The assets under management (AUM) of BTC ETF only account for less than 0.1% of the total allocation of the 10 institutions with ETF qualifications. It should reach 1% to reach the first milestone. Previously, less than 0.1% of buying has pushed Bitcoin from $40,000 to $73,000. If there is another 10 times inflow of funds, the Bitcoin price of $100,000 will not be difficult to reach.
We are in a 5% interest rate environment, and there are $6 trillion in US money market funds. In the zero interest rate era (2011), this amount was $2.6 trillion. As risky assets (BTC and AI) are currently scarce, rate cuts will attract a large amount of funds to the market.

NDV is still bullish on the crypto market and expects BTC to reach $100,000 by the end of the year!

Finally, I would like to quote Buffett: "When others are fearful, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I am fearful." Let us encourage each other!

#VanEck提交首个SolanaETF #MiCA #BTC走势分析 #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 #ASI代币合并计划