Article source: Ryan S. Gladwin
Adapted by: Web3 Frontline, Bijie.com
Bitcoin prices fell more than 5.7% over the past week. The decline was mainly due to small transactions from wallets associated with the defunct Mt. Gox exchange, which caused the price of Bitcoin to fall below $55,000. In addition, the German government transferred another $75 million worth of Bitcoin to the exchange today, which also had a negative impact on market sentiment.
BTC market, picture from Bijie.com
Market conditions are complex and changeable. Multiple factors, including the macroeconomic environment, policy changes, and market sentiment, are influencing Bitcoin prices.
According to the data from the Bitcoin options market expiring in July, most market participants believe that the price of Bitcoin will not fall below $50,000 this month. Option transactions are concentrated between $50,000 and $60,000, indicating that the market believes that the price of Bitcoin is most likely to be close to $60,000 by the end of the month.
However, there are different voices in the market. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, believes that Bitcoin is more likely to fall to $51,500 than to rise to $65,800. He pointed out that $50,000 is the "February consolidation area", the price point where most Bitcoin was purchased in February, and may be the next stop for Bitcoin.
Most of the investment in the bitcoin market now comes from ETFs, which were approved in January. However, bitcoin looks out of place in the world of traditional finance. Cryptocurrency ETFs are among the most volatile investments in traditional portfolios, and cryptocurrencies are often the first to be sold whenever portfolio managers need to sell the riskiest assets.
The impact of changes in the macroeconomic environment on Bitcoin prices cannot be ignored. At present, the inflation problem in the US market is still severe, and the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a far-reaching impact on the Bitcoin market. The Federal Reserve's extended interest rate cut cycle is considered to be unfavorable to risky assets such as Bitcoin, because in a high-interest rate environment, investors are generally unlikely to invest in high-risk markets such as Bitcoin.
However, some market analysts believe that this pain may be short-lived. As the global economy gradually recovers and the market gradually adapts to inflation, the price of Bitcoin may gradually recover in the coming months.
Despite the downward pressure on Bitcoin prices in the short term, many investors remain confident in its long-term prospects. Changes in market sentiment often have a significant impact on prices, so market dynamics and investor behavior require close attention.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's price movement can be evaluated through a variety of indicators. Currently, many analysts use technical indicators such as moving averages and relative strength index (RSI) to determine Bitcoin's support and resistance levels. According to technical analysis, Bitcoin's key support level is currently around $50,000, while the main resistance level is around $60,000.
Technical analysis shows that although further adjustments may occur in the short term, as long as the price of Bitcoin can maintain above the key support level, it is expected to rebound in the future. Especially when market sentiment improves and the macroeconomic environment stabilizes, the price of Bitcoin is expected to return to the upward track.
Market experts hold different views on the future trend of Bitcoin. Some experts believe that the price of Bitcoin may continue to fall and may even fall below $50,000. However, other experts believe that the current adjustment is only temporary and the long-term prospects of Bitcoin remain positive.
Basile Maire said that although the Bitcoin market may face certain fluctuations in the short term, in the long run, its price still has a lot of room to rise. Although there are certain uncertainties in the current market, the fundamentals of Bitcoin are still strong and are expected to rebound in the next few months.
In the long run, Bitcoin's scarcity and decentralization make it anti-inflationary. As global economic uncertainty increases, more and more investors are beginning to view Bitcoin as a tool to hedge risks. Therefore, although prices may fluctuate in the short term, the long-term investment value of Bitcoin is still worth paying attention to.
