Written by: TechFlow

There is a very popular article recently, titled "How to Spend History's Garbage Time."

What is historical garbage time?

In short, it is the moment when a certain period of history violates the laws of economics, and it is difficult for individuals to reverse the situation, and the overall trend seems doomed to fail.

For example, Japan's economy has stagnated for three decades since the bursting of the bubble in the 1990s. Young people have no opportunities, and the development of the country and individuals has hit a ceiling.

For example, during the Great Stagnation in the United States from 1970 to 1982, high inflation, high unemployment and low economic growth coexisted.

For example, the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1989, and even Russia which continues to this day.

A speck of dust from the times becomes a mountain when it falls on a person's head.

In the face of the general trend, individuals are always insignificant. Buffett became the "God of Stocks" because he was born in the United States and invested in U.S. stocks; the rise of China's wealthy class is riding on the east wind of China's reform and opening up over the past 40 years; some people get dozens of times or even higher returns by investing in altcoins/MEME coins because the rise of Bitcoin has driven market sentiment and brought in incremental funds...

But if the entire market or country is facing headwinds, no matter how hard an individual tries, it will be of no avail.

In the investment market, "junk time" is particularly vivid.

Taking Bitcoin as an example, most of the gains are concentrated in a few months, and the gains in those months are concentrated in a few days.

Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee also recently said that most of Bitcoin's annual gains occur within 10 days each year. "If you exclude the 10 best performing days of the year, Bitcoin actually has a negative return."

All the waiting is just for these most crucial ten days.

So, how should individuals deal with garbage time in the investment market?

A-share investors may have considerable experience in this regard.

The first method is to lie down.

This is the approach chosen by most Japanese after the economic bubble burst. Under the mountain of the times, personal efforts are very insignificant. Since they can't resist, they just lie down and enjoy it. If they can't change the reality, they just change themselves.

In the words of the cryptocurrency community, go out and get wet in the rain, return to your original life, no longer be kidnapped by the K-line, go out for a walk, date with beautiful girls and handsome guys, and get together with friends...

You see, whether it is Binance/OKX or other exchanges, they remind you every day, "Touch the Grass" (go out and touch some grass, stop living in the online stratosphere, and take a look at the real world).

At this time, it is a blessing in life to stay away from frequent transactions, invest in core assets such as Bitcoin, and hold cash such as USDT for continuous financial management.

The second method is moisturizing.

For example, in the 1990s, a large number of Japanese companies chose to go overseas and created a second Japan overseas. Many people also chose to go to China to seek gold and look for new opportunities in the non-junk market.

The same is true for investment. When A-shares were in garbage time, many A-share investors turned to invest in US stocks and the crypto market.

In 2024, when the crypto market is also in garbage time, investors turn their attention and liquidity to US stocks.

This is not speculation, but the actual situation. The U.S. stock market has siphoned a large amount of liquidity from the crypto market this year. Many crypto tycoons worth billions of dollars have invested heavily in Nvidia, Tesla, etc., and reaped rich rewards. This also reflects another situation: the overall wealth effect of the currency circle this year is far less than that of the U.S. stock market.

The third approach, Vol.

If the cake doesn't get bigger and you want more cake, you can only snatch the cake from others. This is called curling. You have to be ruthless to others and even more ruthless to yourself.

The volume of the crypto market is typically on-chain PVP and wooling.

For small retail investors, there are greater opportunities on the chain. After all, on an exchange, your counterparties may be market makers, exchanges, and project parties, but on a chain with a relatively clear chip structure, everyone can rely on early participation to become the main force, and then rely on fooling group members to complete liquidity exit.

However, as the chain becomes more and more competitive, the life cycle of each Rug becomes shorter and shorter, from 1 week to 1 day, or even to 1 hour. This is an even more brutal fight, not to mention the various MEV robots and professional Rug issuing teams on the chain.

Group members ship online, come if you have enough money.

Finally, I still want to say that history has garbage time, but individuals do not.

According to the data in the World Economy: A Millennial History, Western Europe's per capita GDP barely grew in the first millennium AD. It started to improve from 1000 to 1500, and then recovered after the 18th century. China's per capita GDP was slightly higher than Western Europe's in the first millennium, but it also stagnated for a thousand years. The same was true for the first 900 years of the second millennium, and it has only started to catch up in the last 100 years.

Looking back at history from a higher dimension, human beings have been in the "garbage time of history" for thousands of years. There has been no improvement in productivity, no appreciation of assets, and the efforts of every individual and every generation seem to be "wasted", as if experiencing a long winter.

Historic opportunities often only come to one or two generations, but everyone still has to live, and live well.

Perhaps, we have missed the best time to invest in Bitcoin. At this moment when things cannot be changed, perhaps it is still not that bad and the most cost-effective choice.

Finally, a poem by Zhang Yuangan of the Southern Song Dynasty is very appropriate:

The white dog turns into floating clouds,

Eternal fame and honor will soon turn into dust.

It is good to drink with a sad song.

Let’s write a poem together to cherish the remaining spring.

The scenery is just like the Central Plains sun.

The stench is caused by people of our generation.

After the rain, the flying flowers know the bottom number,

Get drunk and win your freedom.