After Bitcoin hovered above the 60,000 integer mark for several days, the market finally chose to "accelerate" downward today, falling through more than 58,000 and 57,000 integer marks in succession, and the lowest intraday price once dropped to 55,000 US dollars, hitting a new low in nearly two months. Ethereum fell below 3,000 for the first time in three months to 2,890 US dollars. Driven by the two, the crypto market ushered in a general decline. In the Binance USDT market, there were less than ten non-stable currency assets with positive gains in the past 24 hours, and most altcoins hit new lows...
In the past 12 hours, the total liquidation was US$589 million, of which US$510 million was long positions, and a large number of long positions were liquidated.
What caused this round of deep correction in the "bull market" supported by a series of favorable factors such as "halving + ETF + election"? Is the bull market really over? Is the bull market over?
Germany sold about 10,000 BTC in half a month
Earlier this year, Germany seized 50,000 bitcoins, worth $2.17 billion at the time.
These bitcoins finally began to be transferred and sold in June of this year, with a total of about 9,600 bitcoins sold, and the current position holds 40,359 BTC.
On June 19, 6,500 bitcoins were sold that day;
On June 25, at 5:20 pm, 400 tokens were transferred to the exchange and 500 tokens were transferred to other addresses;
June 26, 3:50 p.m., 750 transferred;
On July 1, at 4:26 p.m., 400 tokens were transferred to the exchange; subsequently, another 282.74 tokens were transferred to multiple exchanges;
July 2, 7:20 pm, 361.877 transferred to Flow Traders;
In yesterday’s transfer, the German government transferred 1,300 BTC to the exchange at 4:25 pm, and transferred 1,700 BTC to an anonymous wallet address at 4:35 pm.
BTC finally fell below $57,000 at around 5:15 p.m. yesterday, reaching a low of $56,952.
Mentougou's huge compensation has started testing small transfers
The Mt. Gox compensation issue has aroused market concerns. The selling pressure of 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH caused panic in the market on June 24, and the price of BTC dropped to around $60,000. However, since the transfer was not actually started at that time, the $60,000 mark was maintained. According to the official website documents disclosed earlier, the Mt. Gox trustee stated that the BTC and BCH repayment work will be started from the beginning of July.
Mentougou had already done a test transfer at 12:00 yesterday. The market had already started to fall sharply at around 9:00. Although the selling force was not from Mentougou, it also cast a shadow on the market confidence in the future. After all, the large amount of selling pressure was ahead, and no one was willing to stand under the dangerous wall.
BTC spot ETF has net outflow for the first time after net inflow in the past 5 days
As an important data of buying and selling orders, Bitcoin spot ETF can be used to observe the buying and selling strength of the market. However, the data is not optimistic. The total net outflow on July 3 reached 20.4495 million US dollars, which was the first net outflow after the net inflow in the past 5 days.
When we extend the timeline, the above chart clearly shows that when the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF is high, the price of Bitcoin tends to rise. When the net outflow of the day becomes larger, the price of Bitcoin falls significantly. In May, its continuous net inflow of funds provided support for the rise in Bitcoin prices, but in June, its total net outflow accelerated significantly, and funds were flowing out significantly.
How will the market outlook be?
BTC broke below the $60,000 support level amid heavy selling pressure, with BTC miners showing signs of capitulation, which historically usually means a bottom for prices. The last comparable hashrate drop occurred in 2022, when Bitcoin was trading at $17,000. In addition, despite the severe sell-off in the crypto market, the options market remains optimistic, with a heavy bias towards ETH call options expiring in September and December.
Considering the recent selling pressure from Bitcoin, driven by factors such as Mt. Gox, miners, and government regulation, ETH has the potential to see a stronger rally due to the upcoming Ethereum spot S-1 filing.
You shouldn’t panic at this time! More and more factors are gathering to confirm the bottom.
1. Bitcoin has fallen to the moving average of multiple time dimensions of technical indicators.
2. Bitcoin weekly line is about to reach below the middle track of the Bollinger Band. In the past bull market, every time it reaches this point, it is the super bottom area, and then it usually washes out the market on the lower track for 5 to 7 weeks before starting a new round of market. (If this is the case, the market will come at least before the interest rate cut)
3. Falling below the integer mark of 6 and repeatedly washing it out will make people more likely to panic.
4. The negative news from Mentougou has exacerbated market panic. There was no response to Grayscale’s previous selling, and the effect of the negative news will be more easily magnified when the market falls.
5. It has currently fallen to the shutdown price of some mining machines.
6. Retail investors’ confidence gradually collapsed, and the market fear index hit a new low in a year.
This round of market is not 312, but it is even worse than 312. It is a slow grind and a slow cut.
In this bull market, your uncle is still your uncle, but your aunt is no longer the same aunt as before. Bitcoin is still Bitcoin, and Ethereum is still Ethereum, but the current wash-out of copycats is exactly the same in magnitude and time as the callback of the previous bull market. The longer Bitcoin fluctuates between 5 and 6, the greater the opportunity space for copycats will be.
This wave of clean-up is thorough. There are favorable expectations and good narratives in the future. The room for explosion is definitely larger than in the first half. It is not a problem for everyone to get their money back, but a question of how much they can earn. However, we will have to adopt a separate strategy for cottages in the future. We cannot do cottages according to the thinking of bulls and bears. The future market will only become more and more difficult to play, so it makes me more determined to only do staged market.
At present, I still say the same as I said two days ago, keep 50% of my position, pay attention to the non-agricultural data tonight, if it is good, you can add 10% appropriately, but there is a high probability that there will be a bad market. If there is a sharp drop, boldly enter the market and add two layers of positions. If it falls slowly, continue to stay put and look for opportunities to add more. The strategy I have always told you is to attack and defend, and we don't gamble on the results. We can just follow the trend.
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together
