In simple terms
Bitcoin’s dominance broke out of its uptrend, hovering around 54.70% as the price fell below $60,000.
Nonetheless, the market is experiencing an active Bitcoin season as altcoins are seeing corrections.
Fewer than eight coins have seen gains over the past three months, and only 13 of them have outperformed BTC.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen sharply over the past few days and even lost a crucial support level.
This seemed to spark hopes among investors that the altcoin season had begun, but the reality seemed different.
Bitcoin dominance declines
As of this writing, the Bitcoin price is hovering around $57,000 after losing the psychological support level of $60,000 this week. This has caused the dominance of Bitcoin (BTC.D) to also drop significantly.
BTC dominance has been in a macro uptrend since the beginning of the year. However, late June and early July were not kind to the cryptocurrency market, causing BTC.D to fall below the uptrend line. Currently, this dominance is 54.70%.
This led many to believe that the altcoin season may have begun. However, as Bitcoin fell, most altcoins in the market also fell with it. Many altcoins, such as Arbitrum (ARB), even hit new all-time lows.
Looking at the performance of the top 50 non-stablecoin altcoins, we can see that only 7 coins are up. A total of about 13 coins outperformed BTC, of which 5 were down.
Generally speaking, for an altcoin season to begin, at least 75% of these 50 tokens (i.e. 38 altcoins) must outperform Bitcoin. Since this is far from the case, it can be said that it will take some time before the market sees the start of an altcoin season.
How long is the altcoin season?
The Altcoin Seasonality Index shows that Bitcoin Seasonality is currently active as the entire market falls. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with values below 25 indicating Bitcoin Seasonality, which is currently at 24.
When the value is above 75, the altcoin season is considered active, which can take several months. Last time, it took the market about three months to switch from BTC season to altcoin season. If the same interval is considered this time, it can be expected that the latter will start in early October.
