Mini Program: Daily Cryptocurrency Dynamics Summary

1. Data: The trading volume of the top 7 spot Bitcoin ETFs shrank in early July

According to Santiment data, among the top 7 Bitcoin ETFs (GBTC, IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, BTCO, BITB, HODL), the volume in early July has indeed shrunk. Trader indecision is usually a sign of capitulation, and if you are bullish on cryptocurrencies, you should be happy about it. Expect a jump in trading volume tomorrow to make up for the National Day holiday in the US stock market.

2. Viewpoint: Bitcoin volatility is expected to continue to decline

With each halving of Bitcoin, its volatility is expected to continue to decline. The next halving is scheduled for 2028, when Bitcoin will be four times more scarce than gold. André Dragosch, head of research at ETC Group, said that as retail and institutional adoption of crypto increases, volatility is structurally expected to decrease over time. Although the annualized volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum is currently around 45% to 50%, while the volatility of the S&P 500 is around 15%, the volatility of crypto assets is gradually decreasing. For example, Bitcoin's volatility was as high as 200% in its early stages, but has recently dropped to 45%. This is mainly attributed to the increased scarcity of Bitcoin, which makes it more "golden". Dragosch pointed out that as the diversity of investors increases, the disagreement between buyers and sellers will also increase, thereby slowing volatility. This trend is expected to continue in the future, especially as crypto assets become more popular and adopted. Investors need to understand that where there is growth, there is volatility, but this volatility is gradually decreasing.

3. Forbes: In the cryptocurrency rally in the first half of 2024, multiple meme coins outperformed Bitcoin

According to Forbes, according to Coingecko data, the market value of all cryptocurrencies increased by $661 billion in the first half of this year, of which Bitcoin, the world's most valuable crypto token to date, contributed $409 billion of the increase. As institutional investors' enthusiasm for this asset heats up, Bitcoin has risen 48%, but the increase is still not as good as some "meme coins". According to CoinMarketCap, among the approximately 70 tokens with a market value of more than $1 billion, Dogwifhat has the highest return rate, with an increase of about 1,300% in the first half of the year. Pepe is the second best performing token in the first half of the year, with an increase of nearly 800%. Floki, named after Musk's Shiba Inu, and another token called Shiba Inu, rose 418% and 67%, respectively, also exceeding Bitcoin's increase. However, Dogecoin's increase is relatively inferior in comparison, at only 35%. In addition, some tokens that are not meme coins have also seen increases that exceed Bitcoin, including ETH (up 51%) and BNB (up 81%).

4.1 0x Research: Bitcoin may fall further to $50,000

Analysts at 10x Research say Bitcoin could fall further to $50,000. Breaking through the psychological benchmark of $60,000 and heading down towards $50,000 marks a significant shift in market sentiment, which 10x Research attributes to the fact that buy flows are drying up, “while sell flows are accelerating.”

5. Bitcoin short-term holders’ transfer volume drops sharply, indicating market stability

Since the 2024 halving, short-term Bitcoin holders have made significantly fewer transfers to exchanges when they lose money, according to Glassnode data. This transfer volume peaked at 90,000 BTC in early 2024, but stabilized below 30,000 BTC after the April halving. Historical data shows that short-term holders of Bitcoin tend to increase transfer activity during major price declines, reflecting panic selling. This trend was particularly evident during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. However, after the 2024 halving, the market showed greater stability and investor confidence, and panic transfers decreased. Still, it’s important to monitor transfer volume, as its spikes often signal significant price movements and could be a potential indicator of changes in market sentiment.

6. South Korea strengthens cryptocurrency regulation and cracks down on trading fraud

South Korean regulators are stepping up pressure on local cryptocurrency exchanges to root out suspicious transactions as part of efforts to strengthen investor protection under a new digital asset law that takes effect later this month, Bloomberg reported. The country's Financial Supervisory Service said in a statement on Thursday that it is setting up a system to monitor unusual cryptocurrency trading activity. It added that exchanges are advised to input data and information into the system to ensure compliance with the legislation that takes effect on July 19. The statement noted that red flags include trading volumes and prices outside normal ranges, excessive trading volume, and unusually slow execution speeds. The Financial Supervisory Service said one of the goals of the measure is to find accounts associated with "suspicious" activities. Matt Younghoon Mok, senior foreign lawyer and partner at Lee & Ko Seoul Law Firm, said the FSS guidelines "may pose a major challenge to altcoins that cannot quickly meet regulatory requirements." South Korean exchanges have begun reviewing the listings of more than 1,000 altcoins over the next six months to ensure they comply with the Virtual Asset User Protection Act. An immediate “massive” delisting of altcoins is unlikely, an industry body said Tuesday, dismissing the idea that the bill could quickly kill trading in some of the country’s highly speculative tokens.

7. German lawmakers urge the government to stop selling Bitcoin

According to CryptoSlate, German MP Joana Cotar strongly criticized the government's decision to sell $195 million worth of Bitcoin, believing that this move increased market volatility and could have a long-term negative impact on the stability of the cryptocurrency market. These Bitcoins came from an investigation into the illegal website Movie2k.to. Cotar said on the X platform that the German government should reconsider this strategy and discuss with the United States the use of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve currency.

8. Data shows that the German government still holds more than 40,000 Bitcoins after recent sales

The German government has been selling seized Bitcoin but still holds more than 40,000 BTC, worth more than $2.3 billion, according to blockchain intelligence firm Arkham On-Chain data.

9. The former Attorney General of the Obama era accused the country's regulators of deliberately depriving the crypto industry of banking services

According to Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, former Obama-era U.S. Attorney General Donald Verrilli said that regulators are deliberately debanking the cryptocurrency industry: "Despite the digital asset industry's desperate need for banking services, federal regulators have launched a concerted campaign to debank the industry." Verrilli's comments came in an amicus brief filed on Wednesday on behalf of Custodia Bank, which is appealing a Wyoming District Court ruling that allowed the Federal Reserve to deny it a master account. Verrilli's criticism of the court was fierce.

10. Justin Sun: Willing to negotiate with the German government to purchase its BTC through over-the-counter transactions to reduce the impact on the market

Justin Sun tweeted that he was willing to negotiate with the German government to purchase all of its BTC in an over-the-counter transaction to minimize the impact on the market.

11. New Zealand tax authorities warn cryptocurrency traders to declare their income

The New Zealand Inland Revenue Agency stated that the agency is paying more attention to those who do not declare income from crypto asset transactions in their tax returns. It has identified 227,000 unique crypto asset users in New Zealand who have conducted approximately 7 million transactions worth $7.8 billion.

12. Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission requires cryptocurrency companies to set up local offices

The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires the country's virtual asset service providers (VASPs) to have an office in Nigeria to be eligible to participate in its framework program. The SEC said that these institutional entities must be incorporated and have an office in Nigeria to be eligible to participate in the Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Program (ARIP), and the CEO or managing director must reside in Nigeria. Applicants must be engaged in investment and securities business and are seeking registration or submitting virtual asset-related applications to the SEC.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data