The U.S. will release non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data tonight, which will have a huge impact on the market.
Bitcoin market analysis
On June 27, I made some unreliable speculations about the market. For details, please see "Qingmei Zhubi: Where is Bitcoin in the cycle? Make an unreliable speculation!"
Today continues to be unreliable.
Just to talk about the possible scenarios of Bitcoin today:
The market will move downwards again during the day, rebound to the lower edge of the parallel channel (55600), and then fluctuate and consolidate, waiting for the news of non-agricultural and unemployment rate in the evening. If the news is good, the market will stop falling and rebound. If it is bad, the market will break through and directly run to around 51000 and then rebound. There will be CPI data to be released next Thursday.
Here are the reasons:
1. Both the Bitcoin daily line and the 3-day line closed with long shadows, so the probability of stopping the decline at the current position is not high, and it is necessary to continue testing downward. The nearest position is the lower edge support of this large parallel channel, and the current corresponding point is 55,600.
2. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate are important economic data. Currently, market confidence is insufficient. If there is bad news, it will be the last straw that breaks the camel's back. If there is good news, the market will bottom out and rebound.
3. The market sentiment is starting to panic, but it is not yet desperate and there is still room for downward movement.
4. From the perspective of chip distribution, the extreme position is around $43,000, which is also the shutdown price/cost price mentioned many times before. The median chip peak is around $51,800, and the probability of falling directly to $43,000 is not high, so when it reaches the median chip, it may enter another period of volatility.
The above is an unreliable speculation and is for reference only. #BTC走势预测
