Macroeconomics has nothing to do with the currency market, and the currency market returns to the industry fundamentals (1/2)
[Basics]
1. July 4th is the US Independence Day holiday. The US economic data originally scheduled to be released on July 4th (Thursday) was concentrated on July 3rd (Wednesday) in advance. Many data show the downward trend of the US economy. The US ISM service industry PMI in June unexpectedly fell short of expectations and fell into contraction. The US ADP small non-farm data in June showed that the number of new jobs in private enterprises was lower than expected. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending June 29 was higher than expected. Many data have strengthened the possibility of "economic weakness" and are likely to lead to the first interest rate cut in September.
2. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in June were basically within market expectations and did not show a significant impact on the US stock market. Federal Reserve policymakers said that lowering interest rates requires more data on cooling inflation, and at the same time being more cautious about the job market. Policymakers have differences on the restrictiveness of monetary policy.
3. Trump won a landslide victory in the first round of debates in the US presidential election. Biden was exhausted by calls to abandon the election. The market reappeared the "Trump deal", and the S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs. After Trump won the 2016 presidential election, US stocks, Treasury yields and the US dollar soared at the same time.
4. Japan's Topix index broke through the peak of the 1989 bubble period, breaking the 34-year record and setting a new record. This Wednesday, the Indian stock market hit a record high, sweeping the global financial media. Today, Thursday, it continued to rise, and there will be new highs after new highs.
5. The currency market is temporarily separated from the macro fundamentals and is dominated by industry fundamentals, but the macro environment can still indicate that the bull market has not ended.
Against the background of the German and American sell-offs and the expectation of the Mentougou sell-off, liquidity and purchasing power are seriously insufficient, and the decline continues to hit a new low. It is currently below the 200-day moving average and is likely to fall below it.
6. Pay attention to whether the non-agricultural data to be released by the United States at 20:30 on Friday, July 5th can bring a rebound and form an opportunity to reduce positions.
#非农就业数据即将公布 #德国政府转移比特币 #BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划
