If the price of BTC falls below its mining cost, it will be very difficult. What is involved is not just a simple supply and demand relationship, but the interweaving and game of multiple forces. Large funds, financial institutions, government-level actions, miners' survival line, and compensation for historical problems all force these entities to carefully consider when selling, and avoid selling at prices below cost to avoid suffering major losses.
It is worth noting that the BTC price we observe daily is actually only a reflection of a small part of spot transactions in the exchange, which only accounts for about 12% of the total BTC volume and cannot fully represent the circulation of the entire market. Therefore, when the price approaches the mining cost, although retail investors may sell out of panic, such selling pressure will often be quickly absorbed by large households, institutions and a few powerful miners in the market, thereby avoiding further price collapse.
Here, we have to emphasize the importance of cost support. It is not just a numerical boundary, but also a comprehensive reflection of market psychology, capital distribution and power comparison. When we try to predict price trends through technical analysis, we must be aware of this and avoid being misled by one-sided data.
Furthermore, if the price of BTC really falls to a low of $30,000, it will be an extremely rare phenomenon, which means that the mining cost has undergone earth-shaking changes. To achieve such a cost change, the computing power of the entire network must decline sharply, or even halve. However, from the historical data of BTC since its birth, the computing power of the entire network has maintained a steady growth trend, which provides us with a strong signal: in the foreseeable future, the possibility of BTC prices plummeting below its mining cost is very small.
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