This article was written on July 4. A good trading plan can help you filter market fluctuations.
This article is also a summary report of my own. (I have been watching the market for a long time in the past few days, and I am writing a summary of my thoughts)
one:
Time node, today is July 4th. (US Independence Day, US stocks are closed for one day)
This key point specifically avoids the decline of the Nasdaq and ETF. (Suspicious)
two:
The Nasdaq index has been rising all the way, reaching a high of 18,000, while the A-share market has been around 3,000 points for thousands of years.
The strength of the Nasdaq shows the enthusiasm of the macro market and the optimism about the future economy.
Thinking: Nasdaq is an index of US technology stocks and can indirectly reflect the trends of the global market.
The Nasdaq has experienced four corrections since the 20th century.
The first time was in 2008. (U.S. real estate, subprime mortgage crisis)
The second time 18 years ago (European debt crisis)
The third time: mid-to-late 2019 (outbreak in the mask era)
Fourth: 2022 (U.S. inflation)
The third mask era affected the economic downturn in the stock market, and the US government adopted a policy of printing money and releasing water. This led to a sharp rise in inflation. The start of the interest rate hike monetary policy led to the fourth major correction.
question:
(But the Nasdaq is too strong. Will it experience a big correction?)
A: The CPI is gradually decreasing, the interest rate cut cycle is approaching, and the market is hot. It is possible that the CPI data will jump sideways in the short term. This will lead to a delay in the expectation of interest rate cuts, resulting in profit-taking and selling in the market, and a correction. However, the interest rate cut will definitely come within six months. The fiscal deficit and the upcoming general election are all problems.
Summary: The strength of the US stock market will continue, and there may be a short-term correction, but it will also be a small sell-off. (The overall market is rising, and ETFs continue to enter fresh blood.)
three:
Chart candlestick.
Big cake, from the perspective of the half-year cycle, the final bottom is around 52,000, and the positive factors of the Nasdaq and ETFs can support it.
The final position given by the Fibonacci expansion is 43,000-48,000 (I have doubts here) (A fall to this position can only be a major negative for the industry)
Statistics of the current price position profit and loss ratio:
Big Pie 57600
Bottom space 52000 10%.
Worst result 48000 17% (floating loss)
43000 24% (Floating loss)
upside potential
For the upward estimate, the upward Fibonacci extension is also used.
First position: 62000 10% (floating profit)
Second position: 66500 17% (floating profit)
Third position: 72500 27% (floating profit)
Profit and loss ratio: 1:1
Summary: The overall trend is upward, the long-term policy is upward, there is also a price advantage, and the profit and loss ratio is 1:1. However, the positives outweigh the negatives, so this position can be deployed.
In order to avoid missing out, this position will be heavily invested, because in a bull market, people are not afraid of being trapped, but they are afraid of missing out.
Four:
Selection of target.
The first target is ETH.
The overall layout is definitely dominated by mainstream currencies. But I will not buy big coins, after all, the fluctuation is too small.
The first consideration is ETH. (ETH's ETF has been approved, and now it is just waiting for the official issuance rules. Everyone has seen that Bitcoin's ETF has brought huge gains for Bitcoin)
ETH's current market value is 390 billion. With the circulation of ETFs, the estimated market value can reach 700 billion (conservative estimate)
The price at this time is estimated to be 6000-7000u.
The increase fluctuates between 100% and 125%
Chart candlesticks:
ETH's final position is around 2850
In the case of a black swan in the circle and major negative news, around 2250.
Downside forecast:
First position: 2850 10% (floating loss)
Second position: 2250 28% (floating loss)
Rising estimate:
First position: 3554 Fibonacci and extended 38.2 position 12% (floating profit)
Second position: 3814 61.8 position 20% (floating profit)
Third position: 4235 Philippine expansion new high 34% (floating profit)
Profit and loss ratio 1:1.25 (conservative algorithm)
Summary: Overall, there are significant positives, and the profit and loss ratio is quite appropriate. You can open a position at this position. And a large position.
Second target:
SUN
The overall market value of SOL is 61.5 billion
(I have done many rounds of SOL trading, but in this bull market, I have never invested in it for a long time with a value concept. It should be because SOL was collapsed by FTX in the last bull market, which caused me to lose money.)
The best position for SOL is around 127, the high point of the previous round, the location of the previous four rallies, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement position. It has been confirmed many times.
The overall fluctuation of SOL will be relatively large, but the overall development of the ecosystem will be relatively rapid.
Overall position: 135
Falling expectation: 127 Fibonacci retracement line 61.8% 11.4% (floating loss)
100 Filipino expansion 100% position 26% (floating loss)
69 Philippine expansion 138% 50% (floating loss) Black swan event
45.5 Philippine expansion 161.8% 66% (floating loss) Black Swan ultimate bottom
Rising expectations: 161 Philippine expansion 38.2% 17% (floating profit)
177 Philippine Expansion 61.8% 30% (floating profit)
203 Philippine expansion 100% 50% (floating profit)
229 Philippine Expansion 138.2% 70% (floating profit)
Summary: The overall profit and loss ratio is 1:1.25. The overall project is in an upward state, and the ecological data continues to increase. If you can hold it for a long time, the fluctuation will be relatively large, so you need to adjust your mentality.
Five: Overall summary
I will carry out full position operation in this period of falling market, and currently I have held 9 positions. Trade your plan, plan your trade, and the rest is just to execute in the market.
(The oversold market in the early stages of a bull market is a bonus for the market. Buy at the bottom, even if you are trapped, how long can it last? In a bull market, don’t be afraid of being trapped, be afraid of missing out.)
