There are generally two types of black swans:

❚ Internal black swans

Mainly black swan events that occur in the blockchain, encryption, and Web3 industries. Typical internal black swans include:

BCH fork computing power war in November 2018.

Luna crash in May 2022.

FTX bankruptcy in November 2022.

❚ External black swans

Pandemic, historical examples are 312 in 2021.

Regulation, historical examples are 94 in 2017 and 519 in 2021.

War, the current example is the Israeli-Palestinian war in April this year.

Of course, there are also some mixed black swans, such as Binance being sued by the SEC, which is both a regulatory black swan and an internal black swan. It doesn't make much sense for us to make this specific classification.

❚ The influence and persistence of black swans

It is meaningful to analyze the influence and persistence of black swans. The greater the influence, the greater the decline may be, and the larger the scale of our bottom-fishing should be. For example, the impact of FTX's bankruptcy is greater than the Mentougou sell-off that closed down 10 years ago.

The more persistent the black swan is, the more patience we need to wait. For example, the chain reaction caused by the collapse of Luna lasted longer than the Israeli-Palestinian war.

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