Alas, the cryptocurrency market is going to be difficult this time. Conservative estimates suggest that it will fall to around 56,000, with strong support at 52,000.

The consensus for the halving in 2024 should have been to go up all the way, as was the case in previous times. But now all kinds of accidents happen frequently, and the 10 billion Mentougou selling pressure has scared the market.

Indeed, 10 billion is equal to half of the ETF inflow. This round of market conditions is very bad, and many of them are different from the previous ones. For example, before the halving, it broke through the previous high because of the ETF, and after the halving, various negative factors hit, but it is still falling.

I expect the real increase in the cryptocurrency market will start in the autumn and winter, following the Halloween effect, and now is the summer off-season. This is the experience of the US stock market for a hundred years. If you don’t know these two terms, you can go and search. Do a good job of risk control and fight the dog dealer to the end! As analyzed above, I am sorry for everyone. This year is a half-year reduction, and the consensus is to buy on dips, and it will start to soar.

Unfortunately, there are too many negative factors, such as the selling pressure of 50,000 bitcoins from miners, 40,000 bitcoins from Germany, and 140,000 bitcoins from Mentougou. There are too many. Just after one, another one comes. It turns out that the short position will always make money after reducing half a year.

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Look at the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which have set new historical highs, but the currency circle has been falling, which is caused by this negative factor. It is really helpless.

What we need to do now is risk control, and cut a few orders of high-multiple contracts so that the margin can be retained for other orders. Try to hold spot or 2 times. The real bull market will be later than expected, and may come in September-October.

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