Two weeks have passed and I am thinking about what will happen next

This bull market and bear market are very different from the 20-24 year cycle

It is not like the big bull market in 20-21 (unlimited QE)

It is not like the bear market in 21-22 (industry leverage cleanup)

- Structured bull market: A small number of tokens may have market-making plans and funds, so they can rise; most projects have consumed funds and expectations in the past three years, and it is difficult to pull the market again (the standard is some public chains, DeFi and GameFi projects that were financed in the last round of bull-to-bear financing) Here I would like to praise manta, alt layer and other awesome project parties, the right time, right place and right people

- BTC ETF: Americans are not stupid, they only buy BTC; they have a low preference for copycats

- Exchange strategies are conservative under the regulatory background: there are very few attempts such as Binance on Spaceship and OKX on Shib, and there are basically no Ponzi projects that last for more than a month

High FDV and low circulation: This is the specialty of FTX and SBF. People and exchanges of this generation seem to be unable to handle it. New coins are supposed to be a good show in the bull market, but this time they are particularly rubbish, especially OKX new coins. Most of Binance's new coins can still be pulled up, but OKX new coins are all rubbish VC Chinese who only come to reduce their holdings

The biggest problem encountered by copycats: the last round of project owners and investors carried out dumping and reduction of holdings (because they were burning money to death), and a large number of VC projects are still waiting to be listed, so there may be a market after these projects are completed

At the same time, pay attention to high financing, recent financing, fast coin issuance projects and chain big dealers. These projects still have money, while others may have already bet everything on one throw

There will still be opportunities to buy new coins, but the winning rate will not be very high, so it is recommended to take a break

Avoid the so-called high-valuation VC coin issuance trend