The recent claim that the price of BTC (Bitcoin) has soared to 60,000 is actually a short-term illusion driven by market operations after Wall Street funds were approved through ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). Behind it is more the result of capital liquidity and market protection strategies, rather than the embodiment of the natural evolution of the market. The traditional logic of the currency circle seems out of place at this moment and difficult to accurately connect.

At present, the real value support point of BTC is closer to around $40,000, while ETH (Ethereum) also benefits from ETF expectations, and its real value range may be positioned at around $2,500.

The US monetary policy has become a sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the currency circle. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its position of not cutting interest rates, it will be difficult for the cryptocurrency market to usher in a real spring. After all, historical experience tells us that the US interest rate cuts are often forced by domestic economic difficulties, such as the measures after the 2008 subprime crisis.

However, the current US economy can still maintain stability, and there is no urgency to cut interest rates. The Fed's inaction is actually looking for the best time to cut interest rates in the global chess game - this time is not based on the single consideration of domestic inflation, but expects cracks to appear in the world's economic powers so that American capital can take advantage of the situation and carry out "bottom-fishing" actions on a global scale.

However, this strategy also implies risks: if the United States delays cutting interest rates, although it can temporarily retain domestic capital, the long-term high interest rate environment may impose a heavy burden on the domestic economy, and it may even fall into trouble before bottom-fishing in other countries.

Therefore, for investors in the currency circle, it should be clearly aware that as long as there is no substantial downward signal in the market, the haze of the bear market will be difficult to completely dissipate. As for ETH, I still stick to the expectation of the price of US$3,144,

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