Lichtman's 13 keys are as follows: Party Mandate, Competition, Incumbency, Third Party, Short-Term Economy, Long-Term Economy, Policy Change, Social Unrest, Scandal, Diplomatic/Military Failure, Diplomatic/Military Success, Incumbent Charisma, and Challenger Charisma.

The "keys" consist of 13 true/false questions, and if the answers are true, the parameters favor stability. If eight or more of the keys are false, the prediction is that the incumbent party in the White House will lose.

As it stands, Biden has clearly lost two of Lichtman's keys. "The key of mandate based on the midterm elections, because the Democrats lost seats in 2022, they need to win seats to win this key. The other key Biden lost is candidate charisma, because he is not Franklin Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy,"

In Lichtman's view, the debates did not have any significant impact on the results. According to his 13-item standard model, the Democrats need to carry Biden to have a chance of winning the election. #非农就业数据即将公布 $BTC