Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has remained cautious in public about whether to cut interest rates in September, which reflects the complexity and multifaceted nature of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. His statement highlights that when the Fed responds to the current economic situation, it must not only consider inflationary pressures, but also prevent unnecessary damage to the economy.
First of all, the two-way risks of monetary policy mentioned by Powell are an important consideration. On the one hand, if the Fed cuts interest rates too early, it could stimulate economic activity and reignite inflationary pressures. This risk is particularly significant now that inflation remains above the Fed's target. On the other hand, if interest rates are cut too late, it may lead to a slowdown in economic growth or even a recession, as a high interest rate environment will have a disincentive effect on consumption and investment. Therefore, the Fed needs to find a balance between the two to ensure the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Secondly, the market expects that the probability of raising interest rates by September is about 70%, which reflects the market's expectations for the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, this expectation is not static, but is affected by a variety of factors, including economic data, international situations, and market expectations. Therefore, the Federal Reserve needs to pay close attention to changes in these factors when making decisions and adjust monetary policy based on actual conditions.
Judging from current economic data, although the U.S. inflation rate has slowed down, it is still higher than the Fed's target level. In addition, economic growth is also facing certain pressure. In this case, the Fed is likely to adopt a cautious monetary policy stance to avoid unnecessary damage to the economy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will continue to evaluate the performance of economic data and adjust monetary policy according to the situation. #币安合约锦标赛