$ETH Short-term effective support, capital pressure becomes the decisive factor
After BTC fell all the way to $58,400 last week, the trading volume was effectively enlarged and gained strong support. After 4 days of rebound, it gradually approached the $64,000 mark. Coinbase's weekly trading volume increased by 31% month-on-month. The market followed the trend and formed the second largest chip accumulation point of 479,000 BTC at $61,000. The first chip accumulation point is $16,000, which is where this round of bull market started.
Once again, the support of the short-term investor's break-even line has been verified. After a short-term loss clearance, the market is at the bottom of the midline. However, the market still needs to continue to work hard to return to the latest break-even point of $64,400.
A further test point is the $66,000 mainstream mining machine shutdown price of American miners that we have repeatedly mentioned. If the results pass these two barriers, the price of BTC is expected to return to the big bull market rhythm in March.
When the price plummeted to $58,400 last week, market sentiment also quickly fell to an "extreme panic" state, with the panic index reaching 31. But even so, the adjustment of BTC prices from the high point is only 20%, but after 16 weeks of shrinking "high-level shocks", market confidence has been greatly impacted. Some pessimists even asked whether this bull market has ended?
We tend to believe that the market is in the second half of the mid-term clearing. Within a one-year cycle, several key factors, such as interest rate cuts and structural positive factors of the US election, are still solid.
In the short term, people may overestimate the momentum of spot ETFs in the United States and Hong Kong: institutions account for only 22% (most of which are hedge funds), and real long-term investors have not yet come in. But looking at the long-term line, people seriously underestimate the significance of ETF exposure.
In the United States, Mr. Trump, who advocates "America First", seems to be getting closer to moving into the White House for the second time; right-wing forces are rising widely around the world. Their common characteristics are that they reject global trade and cooperation externally and brew populist trends internally.
The world has entered an era of rupture and turmoil under the background of the Cold War and local hot wars.
This is the historic window period for cryptocurrencies such as BTC to truly leap to the throne of the world's major safe-haven assets.$BTC
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