Data from Coinglass suggests Bitcoin could be poised for a strong rally driven by historical patterns.
The upcoming Mt. Gox repayment and the German government’s massive Bitcoin sell-off pose significant threats to BTC’s price in July.
Bitcoin had a rough time in June, with its performance less than stellar, and BTC plummeted by nearly 7%.
June’s performance left investors and analysts feeling mixed, with them unsure whether BTC’s price will strengthen or continue to trend lower.
But according to historical data from Coinglass, whenever Bitcoin experienced a downturn in June, there was always a sharp rebound of up to 7.42% in the following month.
Importantly, in this case, June has historically been a negative month for Bitcoin, with an average drop of 0.35%, according to Coinglass, which tracks BTC returns since 2013. However, it always rebounds strongly.
To support this claim, Murad, a well-known meme coin analyst, made a powerful statement to his more than 100,000 followers on the X app, pointing out that Bitcoin has performed very well in the first few weeks of July over the past six years. Murad emphasized that Bitcoin has risen by at least 28% in the first few weeks of July every year over the past six years, which shows that Bitcoin’s historical trend is very solid.
Despite the historically bullish outlook, some analysts have struck a cautious note, warning that July could be a tougher month. One major hurdle for Bitcoin’s impending troubles is the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment. Repayments to the bitcoin exchange are expected to begin in the first week of July, with approximately $8.5 billion in Bitcoin set to be returned to creditors.
However, some analysts believe that the impact may not be as severe as expected, and perhaps only $4 billion will flow into the market.
Another serious obstacle is the massive sale of BTC by the German government, as Crypto News Flash reported earlier. On June 25, a crypto wallet labeled "German Government (BKA)" was discovered by on-chain intelligence provider Arkham Intelligence to have 400 BTC moved from the wallet in two parts to cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Kraken. The transaction, worth about $24.4 million at current prices, occurred around 07:38 UTC. Subsequently, another 500 BTC was transferred to an unnamed address, valued at $30.5 million.
Recent market conditions have had a huge impact on social media platforms. Data from crypto analytics firm Santiment shows that positive sentiment towards BTC has declined, indicating that the market may have bottomed out. Since the Bitcoin halving in April, which reduced mining rewards, Bitcoin miners have been selling heavily to cover operating costs.
Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo observed that price recoveries typically occur after “weak miners die and hash rate recovers.” This process was extended in 2024, taking 61 days, compared to 24 days in 2017 and 8 days in 2021.
While historical events and a decline in miner selling pressure provide room for optimism, the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment and a massive sell-off in Germany pose challenges for Bitcoin in July. Still, if historical patterns repeat themselves, Bitcoin could still have a strong month. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,951.13, up 2.19% over the past 24 hours.
