What is the Kondratieff cycle? Do you know about it?
The Kondratieff cycle is an economic cycle lasting 50 to 60 years, discovered by the Russian economist Kondratieff in 1926.
In this cycle, the first 15 years are usually a recession; the next 20 years are a period of massive reinvestment, new technologies are constantly adopted, and the economy develops rapidly; the last 10 years are a period of over-construction; the result of over-construction is a 5 to 10-year period of chaos, which leads to the next major recession.
The time division and characteristics of the Kondratieff cycle are as follows:
1. The first Kondratieff cycle: from 1800 to 1860, Britain was the dominant country, Germany and France were the challengers, and it was in the era of steam engines and textiles.
2. The second Kondratieff cycle: from 1860 to 1920, Britain was the dominant country, the United States was the main challenger, and it was the era of steel, railways and automobiles.
3. The third Kondratieff cycle: from 1920 to 1980, the United States was the dominant country, Japan was the main challenger, and it was the era of electrical and heavy chemical industries.
4. The fourth Kondratieff wave: 1980 to 2040 (estimated), the United States is the leading country, China is the main challenger, and it is the electronic information age.
The first three Kondratieff cycles were classical cycles, that is, the gold standard period, the total amount of money was greatly restricted, and the economy was prone to deflation; the fourth Kondratieff cycle was a growth cycle, that is, debt-driven, the total amount of money showed a continuous expansion trend, and the economy was prone to inflation.
Each Kondratieff cycle is accompanied by a major technological revolution and brings about great social and economic development. At the same time, each Kondratieff cycle has a large emerging economy joining the capitalist cycle system.
The well-known economist Zhou Jintao once said, "Life depends on Kondratieff to make a fortune", which also attracted more people's attention to the Kondratieff cycle. However, the Kondratieff cycle is only an economic theory or observed phenomenon. The actual development of the economy is complexly affected by many factors, and investment or decision-making cannot be simply based on the Kondratieff cycle. In practical applications, other factors need to be considered comprehensively.
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