According to people familiar with the matter, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has returned the S-1 form to potential Ethereum spot ETF issuers, requiring them to address relevant comments and resubmit by July 8. This means that the final trading date of the Ethereum ETF will be postponed because it needs at least one more round of filing. If Ethereum can successfully gain attention in the ETF market, it will attract a large number of long-term investors to pay attention to its application value not only as a "supercomputer" but also its "store of value" value.

I define Ethereum's application value as "functional" value. For example, DeFi Summer triggered a more than 10-fold jump in Ethereum prices. If innovative applications emerge again in the ecosystem, the value may achieve exponential growth. However, the current market focus is not on Ethereum. Today, the gas price on the chain has dropped to 1Gwei. Even during last year's bear market, the gas fee has never fallen to such a low point, which reflects the periodic weakness of the Ethereum ecosystem and explains the poor price performance of ecological projects.

From the market situation, if the Ethereum ETF is delayed and there are no new highlights in the ecosystem, the price may face a period of "internal and external troubles". I have predicted that Ethereum may rebound first after sideways trading, but this judgment is based on the premise that the Ethereum ETF is successfully listed. Under the current circumstances, the price of Ethereum may be mainly sideways. In addition, there is another phenomenon worthy of attention. Many applications choose to launch on the L2 layer (such as Arbitrum and Optimism). Although there are no explosive applications yet, the market is waiting for an outbreak point.

The price of Bitcoin has remained above $60,000, which is consistent with my previous judgment. The probability of going higher next is relatively high. Although the price has not fallen to the bear market level, the market sentiment has been quite depressed, and the price of altcoins has generally been halved relative to the high point, and the cost performance is obvious. Retail investors usually chase high when market sentiment is high, and choose to wait and see when prices fall, which is similar to airdrop activities. Previous airdrop activities such as ZK and L0 did not attract enough attention, but I think now is a good time to pay attention to airdrops.

Through these adjustments, we can have a deeper understanding of the development trend of Ethereum and its ecosystem, as well as potential investment opportunities.