After Bitcoin fell back to the 60,000 level recently, it experienced a long period of narrow range tug-of-war. This long period of narrow range tug-of-war has had a certain degree of adverse impact on the subsequent market pull-up.
First of all, let's look at the trend of Bitcoin on the daily chart. We need to pay attention to two important moving averages. One is the 30-day moving average, which is called the lifeline, and the other is the 120-day moving average, which is the dividing line between bulls and bears. As early as 69,500, the direction of the 30-day moving average had already begun to turn downward, and in the current market trend, the moving average direction is still downward. The key point is that after the 120-day bull-bear dividing line broke, it also turned. The last time Bitcoin fell below the 120-day moving average was in May this year. At that time, the Bitcoin market received effective support at this position and ushered in a subsequent upward pull. However, the direction of the 30-day moving average also turned downward, and a V-shaped reversal occurred later. It was strongly suppressed at the 30-day moving average position, and after a slight retracement, there was a subsequent breakthrough in the market.
However, this time, Bitcoin has been consolidating below 63,000 for a long time, reaching 5 to 6 days today, and the moving average direction has also begun to turn. It is difficult to form a V-shaped reversal candlestick pattern like the last time, but will continue to test the position of the lower track of the channel at 58,800. The 58,800 line is the key position for bullish defense. If it breaks, Bitcoin will open a new downward channel and may even test 52,000. Going up, since the 30-day lifeline direction has turned downward, this will become an important suppression position. So even if Bitcoin rebounds upward, the pressure of the 30-day lifeline is inevitable. At the current 4-hour level, we are still bearish in the short term. Yesterday, Bitcoin rebounded to the top, and it was thought that it would form an N-shaped reversal pattern of rising, but when it touched the 30-day lifeline, a bearish candlestick combination appeared. Especially this candlestick at the 4-hour level, there is a long upper shadow line above, called the hanging neck line, which appears on the 30-day lifeline and the upper track of the channel at the same time, and the volume is also large, which means that the selling pressure at the top is very heavy. The subsequent market did not break through the 30-day moving average or the upper track of the channel as expected. Instead, it fell below the neckline after one night. Since then, the Bitcoin market has formed a double top structure at the 4-hour level. Therefore, 60,800 has become an important pressure point for Bitcoin during the day, and the target of the decline is around 58,800. #币安合约锦标赛 #MegadropLista #美联储何时降息？
