From last year to this year, DeFi has become extremely popular.
In such a wave, have you ever been curious? It seems that everyone is talking about DeFi, but how many people are actually involved in it?
The following two sets of data may provide the answer:
Google Extended Data shows that on March 22, MetaMask (Little Fox Wallet) downloads exceeded 2 million
According to Dune Analytics, the number of independent DeFi addresses exceeded 1.67 million on March 21.
Considering that each user usually has multiple addresses, Uncle Jian estimates that the actual number of DeFi users may be only around 100,000 to 300,000. This raises another question: How many people are speculating in cryptocurrencies around the world?
Let the data speak
▌United States: Coinbase has 56 million certified users
As the first exchange to enter the "traditional" capital market, Coinbase's listing this year is considered a major milestone in the cryptocurrency world.
According to documents submitted by Coinbase to the SEC before its listing, as of December 31, 2020, the total number of Coinbase certified users reached 43 million, an increase of 34.4% from the end of 2019.
However, Coinbase's first quarter 2021 financial report showed that as of March 31, the number of certified users had reached 56 million, a 30% increase in three months.
Coinbase is the largest exchange in the United States, so most of its certified users are from the United States.
Therefore, it can be calculated that 17% of the total U.S. population is now involved in cryptocurrency investment.
▌UK: 5% of the total population holds crypto assets
A report released last year by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) estimated that as of the end of 2019, 3.86% of the UK population held crypto assets.
Taking into account the similarities between the UK and the US, and assuming that their growth rates are the same, by the end of 2020, the UK's currency holding population is expected to have exceeded 5%, or about 3.4 million people.
▌South Korea: Exaggerated kimchi premium
Recently, everyone must have heard a term frequently - "Kimchi premium".
For example, on April 5, the price of Bitcoin on South Korea's Bithumb exchange exceeded 66,000 US dollars, which was a full 15% higher than the price on Coinbase during the same period.
The Kimchi premium refers to the price difference between cryptocurrencies on South Korean exchanges and other exchanges.
During the last bull market, the highest premium was as high as 50%.
Such an exaggerated premium just shows how crazy Koreans are about cryptocurrencies.
According to a survey by Koreanclick, a Korean Internet market research organization, as of January 2018, the total number of users of digital currency services in South Korea reached 5.09 million, accounting for 2/3 of the total number of stock investors in the same period.
That is to say, the number of people speculating in cryptocurrencies in South Korea at that time reached 9.8% of its total population. (It is worth noting that this proportion was three years ago)
Using the “Innovation Diffusion Curve” to Look at the Development of the Cryptocurrency Circle
The above introduces the situation of cryptocurrency speculation in various countries. Based on the data of "percentage of coin holders", what stage do you think the cryptocurrency circle has reached now? Is it still in the early stage?
The following figure is called the "Innovation Diffusion Curve" or the "Technology Adoption Life Cycle".
Rogers first proposed this theory in the 1960s, when there was no popular Internet for civilian use, let alone smartphones. However, the subsequent development of many Internet products, as well as the spread of ideas, concepts, and technologies, all conform to this theory.
The innovation diffusion curve explains how new things spread from their emergence to their spread. In terms of population attributes, they will penetrate in the order of innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards.
According to data analysis, the proportion of the population holding currency in the first three countries has already exceeded 2.5%, and they have all passed the innovator stage.
Among them, the UK has entered the "early adopter" stage; while the United States and South Korea are even in the "early majority" stage.
Uncle Jian believes that open regulation is the key to user growth. After all, only with corresponding support in laws and regulations can the public more easily understand and purchase cryptocurrencies.
For example, U.S. users can purchase cryptocurrencies on compliant exchanges such as Coinbase and Gemini, as well as on brokerage firms such as Robinhood, Webull, and even Paypal.
For example, in South Korea, Bithumb, Upbit, Coinone and other exchanges all have official banking partners, because South Korean regulators explicitly require banks to provide fair services to exchanges in order to ensure KYC and anti-money laundering.
Therefore, these countries are in a leading position in terms of the proportion of their population holding currency.
But when we look beyond a specific country and take a global perspective, we will find different things.
The world's total population is 7.8 billion, and the total number of Internet users is 5.053 billion. Assuming that the total number of cryptocurrency holders is 100 million (which is probably not yet reached), the penetration rate of cryptocurrency among Internet users is 1.9%, and the penetration rate among the global population is 1.2%.
The crypto world seems to be surging, but only a few people are really surging with it. From a global perspective, we are still in the innovator stage.
When will the turning point come?
The key to the diffusion of innovation actually comes from the leap from “early adopters” to “early majority”.
There is a huge gap between early adopters and early majority. If you can cross the gap, it means you can quickly move from "early market" to "mainstream market".
Therefore, 16% (2.5% innovators + 13.5% early adopters) is an important turning point. So when will this turning point of cryptocurrency come for the world?
The world is a complex system, and it is extremely difficult to predict the speed at which new things evolve.
But we can still get some rough answers through comparison.
If we add up the number of people who adopt the innovation diffusion curve, we get an "S curve".
Throughout the 20th century, technologies or products that were generally accepted by the public all showed a certain form of S-curve, that is, they all experienced a process of slow growth, rapid takeoff, and slowing growth.
And as technology advances, the S curve becomes more and more compact. For example, the rapid take-off phase of early telephones and electricity lasted for 40 to 50 years, while the rapid explosion of mobile phones and the Internet in the 1990s lasted only a dozen to 20 years.
The most similar thing to the development of cryptocurrency is the Internet.
There are currently approximately 5.053 billion Internet users in the world, accounting for 64% of the world’s total population.
In 2010, 30% of the world's Internet users; in 2005, 16% of the world's Internet users.
Going back further, you will find that in 1995, there were less than 40 million Internet users in the world, less than 1%.
It took the Internet about 10 years to go from less than 1% to over 16%.
As mentioned earlier: Assuming that the total number of cryptocurrency holders in the world is currently 100 million, the penetration rate of cryptocurrency among Internet users is 1.9%.
If we hope to reach 16% in 10 years, that means an average annual growth of 24%, which is not an unattainable number at present.
Summary of Lao Zhong
All disruptive innovations seem very unreliable in the early stages, and this is also true for cryptocurrencies.
But the dreams of those days are gradually becoming a reality.
The audience of Bitcoin has expanded from geeks to the general public and institutions, and sooner or later it will attract sovereign states to make investments.
Although Uncle Jian cannot be sure when the turning point of cryptocurrency will occur, he remains highly optimistic about whether it can cross the turning point.
The innovation diffusion curve provides us with a broader perspective, that is, we must grasp the short-term bull and bear cycles; but more importantly, we should all enter the game as early as possible, keep up with the times, and then wait for the turning point to appear and the trend to explode.
Only in this way can we enjoy the bubble of industry growth and long-lasting dividends. #币安合约锦标赛 $BTC
