Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Seasonal evidence suggests BTC price correction ends in July
Weekly US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows were minor.
On-chain data indicates miners selling more, indicating negative momentum.
US and German governments sent 4,690.28 BTC worth $287.57 million to exchanges.
Seasonal data suggests BTC growth in July.
Bitcoin (BTC) price may fall this week due to minor outflows in US spot ETFs, BTC miners selling, and the US and German governments transferring 4,690.28 BTC to controlled exchanges. Technical indications suggest BTC may correct 5% before rising again.
Bitcoin miner selling pressure rises
CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow statistics shows that miners transferred 8,592.14 BTC to exchanges this week, 29% higher than previous week.
Transferring cash to exchanges might cover immediate costs or allow BTC miners to profit by selling at an overpriced price. Both examples are linked to sale behavior, which suggests a Bitcoin price decline, which is negative.
Big government BTC transfers cause FUD
Arkham Intelligence reports that the US Government sent 3,940.28 BTC, worth $241.22 million, to Coinbase Prime Deposit on Wednesday. A January 2024 trial forfeited this Bitcoin from drugs trafficker Banmeet Singh.
Additionally, Lookonchain data reveals that the German government transferred 750 BTC worth $46.35 million this week. A lesser payment of 0.001 BTC to Flow Traders may be a test transaction or a prelude to a BTC sale.
The German government deposited 2,100 BTC, or $135.22 million, to Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Kraken last week. The German government owns 45,609 BTC worth $2.81 billion.
Coinglass illustrates July BTC price bounces in monthly returns (%). BTC usually climbs double-digits in July after a bad June. Over the previous five years, post-June drawdowns have led to BTC rallies of over 9.6%, sometimes 24%.
Bitcoin finds resistance at the bottom falling wedge band.
Bitcoin price fell 7.5% on Monday to retest its weekly support at $58,375 before rebounding 5.8% on Tuesday.
