Recently, VanEck, an asset management giant that has issued a Bitcoin spot ETF and is seeking SEC approval for an Ethereum spot ETF, confirmed that it has submitted application documents for the Solana ETF (VANECKSOLANATRUST) to the SEC.
The news of the application for the first Solana ETF to be listed in the United States has caused the price of SOL to rise, and the Solana ecosystem has more hope. At the same time, it has triggered widespread discussion in the market: When will the United States approve the listing of Solana ETF? In the current political and regulatory environment, what are the prospects for the listing of Solana ETF?
In fact, a week ago, crypto asset manager 3iQ filed for a spot Solana ETF in Canada, the first in North America. In recent months, $1.5 trillion asset manager Franklin Templeton has also praised the Solana ecosystem and network.
Citing data from June 20, analyst James Seyffart said that more than $1 billion worth of Solana exchange-traded products have been launched globally, including the 21Shares Solana Staking ETP and Europe’s ETC Group Physical Solana product.
Solana is a highly watched blockchain network, and its native token SOL is also favored by investors, but it is not easy to establish a Solana ETF. Although VanEck's Solana ETF application has been accepted, industry insiders generally believe that under the helm of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) led by the Biden administration, there is still great uncertainty as to whether it can be successfully approved.
According to analysis, the approval of the Solana ETF may face many obstacles and will be difficult to achieve at least during the Biden administration. The main reasons are as follows:
The SEC has a dispute over Solana's status. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler previously said that Solana may be identified as a security rather than a commodity like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which means that the Solana ETF will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Solana lacks a mature derivatives market. Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana has not yet established a mature futures market. The SEC tends to approve futures-based cryptocurrency ETFs rather than spot ETFs. In the past, the SEC required a mature futures market as a basis for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF applications. The lack of a derivatives market will limit the ability of ETF managers to effectively hedge and manage risks.
Concerns about manipulation and price manipulation. The SEC has always had concerns about the lack of regulation and potential manipulation in the cryptocurrency market, and this risk may be greater for the emerging Solana. In addition, the Solana network has experienced multiple downtime incidents, which is also a major obstacle for the SEC to delay the approval of the Bitcoin ETF.
Although it is difficult to obtain approval from the SEC under the Biden administration, industry insiders generally believe that the future of Solana ETF is still relatively optimistic. Once the political landscape changes, such as Trump's re-election, the approval prospects of Solana ETF may change significantly.
During the Trump administration, the SEC's regulatory stance was generally more open and friendly. Especially in the field of cryptocurrency, the Trump administration has always maintained a relatively relaxed attitude. Moreover, after Trump took office, the leadership of the SEC is likely to change, and the new management may be more open to the listing of the Solana ETF. Therefore, some analysts believe that if Trump succeeds in taking office, the approval of the Solana ETF may be quickly approved and may exceed the increase of the Bitcoin ETF.
However, some people believe that regardless of whether Trump can be elected, even if it is still in the Biden era, as time goes by and the regulatory environment changes, Solana ETF will eventually be approved. It is just a matter of time. At the same time, the attitude towards the broader cryptocurrency market is positive: VanEck's application for Solana ETF further proves that altcoins are about to land on Wall Street.
First, the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were eventually approved during the Biden administration, which shows that the U.S. regulatory environment is gradually accepting cryptocurrency ETFs. Against this backdrop, the road for Solana ETF will become smoother and smoother.
Secondly, as a highly watched blockchain network, Solana’s ecosystem is also constantly developing and improving. In the future, if Solana can further improve network stability and strengthen regulatory compliance, it is believed that it will be able to better meet the SEC’s approval requirements.
Finally, a change in the US government may also bring about changes in the regulatory environment. If a more cryptocurrency-friendly government emerges in the future, the approval process for the Solana ETF may also be accelerated.
In summary, the road to the listing of Solana ETF will not be smooth, but in the long run, with the continuous development of the cryptocurrency market and the gradual improvement of the regulatory environment, Solana ETF will inevitably land in the US capital market and become the focus of investors. For investors, Solana is undoubtedly one of the most promising cryptocurrencies at present and deserves close attention.
