Heavy data released late at night! Good news from the Federal Reserve, will Bitcoin be stable in July?

Tonight, the United States announced the final value of the PCE price index in the first quarter was 3.7%, the expected value was 3.6%, and the revised value was 3.6%. GDP in the first quarter grew by 1.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations. Both data did not exceed expectations, so they will not hinder the rate cut process at the end of the year.

In addition, Federal Reserve official Bostic said in a speech that interest rate cuts may begin in the fourth quarter of this year, and four quarterly rate cuts of 25 basis points each are expected in 2025. He hopes to be "absolutely certain" that the inflation rate will return to 2% before the initial rate cut, and said this will be the first step in a series of measures to cut interest rates.

After the news was released, Bitcoin broke through $62,000 and Ethereum also rose by 2%, but then Bitcoin fell below $62,000, which shows that the market believes that the news is good, but not strong. I am optimistic about the market in July. I have analyzed before that the probability of Bitcoin rising in July is 63.64%. Only in 2015 and 2017 did it fall, and the rest of the years rose.

In addition, July is a policy window period and is not easily affected by policies.

Tomorrow morning is the first debate between Trump and Biden. I personally prefer Trump because he is more topical, has a meme attribute, and he is more supportive of cryptocurrency. Wait and see the debate tomorrow morning.