Interpretation of macroeconomic data on June 27: Final value of annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States Recommended reading: ★★★
Final value of annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States:
The value was 1.4%, higher than expected and the previous value. The value shows that the economic growth in the first quarter of the United States is still beyond expectations, and the economy is still strong and there is a possibility of overheating. At the same time, combined with the previous belief of some Federal Reserve officials that the GDP in the second quarter will be higher than that in the first quarter, then from the perspective of economic data, there is still pressure on inflation control.
As mentioned earlier, the GDP of the United States is mainly calculated based on the expenditure algorithm, supplemented by the production and income algorithm. According to the data released at the same time as the final value of GDP in the first quarter, the quarterly rate of personal consumption expenditure in the first quarter was significantly lower than that of the previous quarter, but the price index exceeded expectations. The data shows that the willingness of consumers to spend in the first quarter is reduced, but because prices are still high, there is obviously still pressure on inflation control. If the willingness to consume continues to decrease and prices (food, energy, services, rent, etc.) are effectively reduced, it will be more conducive to inflation control.
However, it should be noted that the GDP forecast for the first quarter was 1.4% last week, but it was changed to 1.3% this week. If the GDP was in line with the original expectations, it would be in line with expectations, but now it is obviously beyond expectations.
If the GDP in the second quarter is still higher than that in the first quarter according to the views of Fed officials, then obviously the overheated economic growth is not conducive to the current market's expectations of the Fed's two interest rate cuts in 2024.
The number of initial unemployment claims for the week of June 22 announced at the same time was slightly lower than the expected and previous values, proving that the short-term employment market is relatively good, but the data has little impact in this period and can be ignored.
Later on Friday, the more important data about PCE is the monthly rate of existing home sales in May at 22:00
