Like A-shares, when new leeks cannot be mined, the sickle can only make money by cutting old leeks in the market. There are only so many leeks, and the number of seeds is almost catching up with the number of leeks, so the altcoins are easy to fall and difficult to rise like most A-shares. There are new leeks, but there are too many sickles and altcoins, so the new leeks are far from enough.
And Dabing happened to get a job this year and escaped from the sea of suffering, and gloriously joined the ranks of U.S. stocks, supported by a steady stream of liquidity from all over the world.
Bitcoin and altcoins are completely different species. There is no comparison at all.
The number of altcoins is still increasing, just like the A-share market is constantly adding IPOs. In this case, the cryptocurrency market is always bleeding, and it is difficult to imagine an overall bull market in the altcoin market. After the altcoin holders sell their altcoins, the funds are basically either used for consumption or exchanged for Bitcoin.
Shanzhai coins have deceived retail investors twice, once during the bull market in 2017 and once during the bull market in 2021. Now, except for a few varieties, the prices of others have been halved, cut in half, and cut in half again compared to their peak periods. As the saying goes, three times is more likely to happen, and retail investors who have been deceived twice will no longer buy Shansai coins. Many people have fully realized that only big coins can continue to break new highs, and those with large amounts of capital, especially, do not want to take over Shanzhai coins.
I personally think that the biggest factor that determines the price of Bitcoin 9 should be the mining cost. Although it is occasionally lower than the mining cost, in the long run, the price is mostly above the median of the mining cost. The current median should be around $50,000, and it will be around $100,000 after another halving in three years. In other words, the price of Bitcoin will basically stabilize at $100,000 in three and a half years.
Other coins do not have this feature of Bitcoin, that is, there is no mining cost price to refer to. When the market is bullish, it will rise wildly, and when it is powerful, it will fall sharply. Bitcoin has not been like this so far, and it will be less and less likely to be like this in the future.
Keeping a close eye on the mining cost price is probably the most valuable reference method. The most conservative consensus is that it will at least double every four years.
Finally, if you are a complete novice and you are excited to enter the cryptocurrency circle after seeing BTC hit a record high, then I suggest you follow me first, learn the knowledge of the cryptocurrency circle from me, and improve your basic skills. A tall building is built from the ground, and glory can only be achieved by yourself. Only by laying a solid foundation can you go further.
