Cryptocurrency daily summary:
$9.25 billion in BTC options are about to expire, and bulls may face a crisis
SEC May Approve Spot Ethereum ETF as Early as July 4
Bitcoin Virtual Machine Team Launches ZK Rollups Service to Scale Bitcoin
Blast Airdrop Issues 17 Billion Tokens
Let's first look at the trading activities of Bitcoin ETFs. According to Farside Investor data, on June 26, Grayscale Bitcoin Spot ETF (GBTC) received an inflow of $4.3 million; at the same time, Fidelity Bitcoin Spot ETF (FBTC) received an inflow of $18.6 million, and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Spot ETF (ARKB) received an outflow of $4.9 million. Grayscale official data showed that as of June 26, Grayscale GBTC held 275,895.653 BTC, a decrease of about 499.811 from the previous trading day.
$9.25 billion in BTC options expire this week, bulls may face crisis
The June monthly expiration is particularly critical because it marks the end of the first half of 2024. Historically, this moment is the second-largest expiration date in every market, including the traditional financial sector. Now, investors are particularly concerned as Nvidia, a $3 trillion tech giant, is down 12% since its all-time high on June 20.
$9.25 billion in BTC options will expire this week. Two months have passed since the Bitcoin halving, and 57% of bullish bets are concentrated on prices of $70,000 or higher. However, the market has been weak in the past two weeks, putting pressure on bulls. If Bitcoin remains around $61,500 on June 28, BTC options at prices of $62,000 and $64,000 will not expire, and put options at prices of $58,000 and $60,000 will expire.
Current financial market dynamics are similar to those in 2021 and could signal an impending bear market. Signals include a growing gap between the S&P 500 and the equal-weighted index. The availability of June 28 call and put option contracts depends on the settlement price. Bitcoin longs need $64,000 to avoid losses, and bulls desperately need the $60,000 support to hold before the June 28 expiration.
SEC May Approve Spot Ethereum ETF as Early as July 4
Industry executives and other relevant sources revealed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve spot Ethereum ETFs as early as July 4. As negotiations between asset management companies and regulators have entered the final stage, eight asset management companies including BlackRock and VanEck are seeking SEC approval to launch these funds.
Sources pointed out that the process of revising the offering documents has progressed to the point where only "minor" issues need to be resolved. A lawyer working with one of the issuing companies also said that it only requires "final touches" and approval may not take more than a week or two. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas had previously expected approval to come as early as July 2.
Funds launched in January that track the spot price of bitcoin have been among the most successful in the ETF market, attracting about $8 billion in assets. The nine products had nearly $38 billion in assets at the end of June, though holdings of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fell to $17.8 billion as the company converted its $27 billion bitcoin trust into an ETF.
The SEC declined to comment. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler told Reuters earlier this month that the launch date would depend in part on how quickly issuers respond to regulators’ inquiries.
Frax Share
BVM launched BitZK, a zero-knowledge proof service, last week, which enhances Bitcoin’s scalability by allowing users to create rollups and migrate applications from Ethereum to Bitcoin. This surge in activity has prompted multiple development teams to explore new ways to scale Bitcoin and incorporate ideas from other blockchain projects.
BVM charges $99 or more per month for access to its BitZK service, and has already amassed a group of early users, including Bitcoin Layer2 RWA Chain, POWD3R Blockchain, and Octopus Bridge. The monthly fee covers the memory, CPU, and storage costs associated with running Bitcoin Layer 2.
The Bitcoin Virtual Machine (BVM) was launched in January 2023, and according to the project’s white paper, “BVM is a state machine similar to the Ethereum Virtual Machine that leverages Bitcoin as a data layer for transaction-level consensus. This approach allows the BVM to act as a general-purpose state machine, leveraging Bitcoin’s security and data availability without the need for additional network or consensus protocols.”
The protocol aims to make the Bitcoin network as versatile as possible and is one of several Bitcoin scaling solutions. The need for scaling solutions began last year when protocols such as Ordinals and Runes were launched. The increased demand for block space and these solutions began to gain traction, stimulating on-chain activity on the Bitcoin network.
Scaling Bitcoin has always been a difficult problem, whether it is through increasing the block size or developing scalable layer 2 solutions. Zero-knowledge proofs are used in blockchain circles to compress data and have become the basis for many of the most popular rollups on Ethereum.
Blast Airdrop Issues 17 Billion Tokens
Ethereum layer 2 scaling network Blast distributed 17 billion BLAST tokens to early adopters of its network at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
Parsec Finance’s blockchain exploration tool shows that more than 35% of the airdropped BLAST has been claimed within the first few hours after the token went live.
Market Analysis: Layer2 narrative is gradually abandoned by the market. The market focuses on the inflation data released on Friday
Market Trends
BTC: Bitcoin fell back after rebounding above $62,000 and is currently consolidating around $61,000. This consolidation state indicates that the market is looking for a new direction and investors are waiting for further market signals.
ETH: Ethereum price retreated slightly to around $3,380, despite this, the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains strong.
Altcoins: After yesterday's general rise, the gains of altcoins have narrowed. This usually indicates that the market is digesting the previous gains and there may be a short-term need for adjustment.
Macroeconomics
- US stocks: continued to rise, showing investors' confidence in the economic outlook. But at the same time, the US dollar index is also rising. The market is paying close attention to the inflation index data to be released on Friday, which will have an important impact on future monetary policy.
Market Hotspots
1. Layer2 project Blast: BLAST was listed on Gate last night, with a current market value of $2.7 billion. Blast's points airdrop model is not friendly to large investors, and it has not yet been listed on more high-quality trading platforms. Blast's price performance shows to a certain extent that the narrative of Ethereum Layer2 is being abandoned by the market, and investors may be looking for new growth points.
2. Lista, a stable project: LISTA continues to rise sharply, breaking through $0.8 this morning. This week, Lista announced the start of a new round of mining, with an annualized return of LISTA/BNB mining of up to 245%. Community users estimate that based on Lista's mining income, the price peak of LISTA tokens may be around $1.2.
3. Kas of the PoW chain: KAS has surged, approaching its all-time high. The official announcement is that the Kaspa chain will focus on Meme coins in the future. After the BTC halving, many BTC mining companies switched their computing power to mine KAS.
4.Meme section: Trump and Biden will hold a presidential debate at 9:00 am Beijing time tomorrow. US election concept tokens such as MAGA,$PEOPLE It is worth paying attention to the debate, which may bring short-term price fluctuations.
After a round of market adjustment and consolidation, investors should pay close attention to the release of macroeconomic data and changes in market hotspots. In particular, there are certain short-term investment opportunities in the Meme sector. For long-term investors, observing the trends of BTC and ETH and changes in macroeconomic policies will help to formulate a more robust investment strategy.
Macro: Wall Street ends slightly higher in choppy trading ahead of inflation data; Asian stocks fall, yen slumps
Major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher on Wednesday, June 26, after volatile trading as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential debate and the release of a highly watched inflation report from the Federal Reserve.
The index performances were as follows: the Dow Jones rose 0.04%, the S&P rose 0.16%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.49%.
Chipmaker Nvidia surged 0.25% before the close, erasing earlier losses. Other large tech stocks such as Apple, Amazon, and Tesla also recorded gains. However, some analysts expressed concerns about Nvidia, believing that potential geopolitical issues could have a significant impact on the company.
There will be multiple economic data releases this week, with Friday's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index being particularly important, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator for determining the path of monetary policy. Analysts believe that investors are holding back, waiting for tomorrow's presidential debate and PCE data. Meanwhile, investors increased their bets on non-tech sectors earlier this week.
Asian stocks fell on Thursday and bond yields surged as inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. Japan's Nikkei fell 1%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares fell 0.5%.
In the foreign exchange market, U.S. yields supported the dollar, which hit a two-month high of 106.13 against a basket of currencies on Wednesday. Expectations of U.S. rate cuts were suppressed due to stubborn inflation and strong economic data, and the dollar index rose 1.3% this month and nearly 1.5% this quarter. The New Zealand dollar fell a further 0.1% on Thursday to a six-week low of $0.6069, while the pound fell to a six-week low of $1.2613. The dollar hit a six-week high against the pound and the New Zealand dollar.
The yen was at 160.7 per dollar, just off a 38-year high hit on Thursday. Such nervousness has made risk assets in financial markets particularly vulnerable.
The yen fell to an all-time low of 171.79 per euro on Wednesday and was at 171.57 per dollar in Asian trading, below levels that prompted Japan to intervene in April and May. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said Thursday he would not comment on exchange rate levels but reiterated that the government is concerned about the impact of a weaker yen on the economy and is keeping a close eye on currency markets.
Australia's three-year government bond yield jumped 18 basis points on Wednesday and rose another 10 basis points to 4.21% on Thursday, tracking an overnight sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, as inflation accelerated to a six-month high in May.
In commodities, Brent crude futures fell 0.4% to $84.92 a barrel and are down 3% so far this quarter.
Gold prices fell as yields rose, trading at $2,297 per ounce.
