After a sharp decline to $58,000 this week, the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently temporarily stabilizing above the key support of $60,000, awaiting the key catalyst that will determine the next trend. As of the time of writing, it is $60,662, down 1.6% on the day and 6.55% on the week.
Experts point out that the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) will face an important test in the next few days. Whether the key support of $60,000 can be maintained will directly affect whether Bitcoin and other altcoins can bottom out and rebound.
The US government transferred 3,940 Bitcoins
According to on-chain data tracked by Arkham, a wallet marked as being associated with the US government transferred 3,940 bitcoins (about $241 million) to Coinbase Prime last night. The US government currently still owns 213,546 bitcoins, worth about $13.1 billion. It is the national government with the largest bitcoin holdings.
Arkham Research tracked transactions in the United States and found that the 3,940 bitcoins were originally seized from drug trafficker Banmeet Singh and confiscated at trial in January 2024.
Is Germany also preparing to sell Bitcoin?
According to on-chain data tracked by Arkham, the German Federal Criminal Police Office (Bundeskriminalamt, BKA) transferred a total of 650 bitcoins (about 40.29 million US dollars) to the exchanges Coinbase, Bitstamp and Kraken in the past two days.
As of press time, BKA still holds 45,264 bitcoins, worth approximately $2.76 billion.
According to BitcoinTreasuries, a Bitcoin holdings data platform, the German government's Bitcoin holdings rank fourth, after the United States, China and the United Kingdom.
Technical Analysis
Currently, Bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI) has entered the oversold area, and the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) has also entered the bottom of the historical trend.
For this reason, technical analysts believe that as long as the bulls can avoid Bitcoin's daily or weekly closing price below $60,000, they will be able to maintain control and trigger a bullish divergence after the next retest of support, pushing prices to new all-time highs, but if $60,000 is lost, it is likely to fall to around $58,000 to seek the next support level.
As macroeconomic factors including interest rate hikes and inflation begin to exert their influence on the market again after a half-year absence, the two data that the market is most concerned about this week are the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data that will be released today and tomorrow.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024 will be released on Thursday (June 27), which is tonight at 20:30 Taiwan time. The forecast is 1.3%, and the previous value was 3.4%. If the indicator is higher than expected, it will be considered as a strong/rising U.S. dollar, otherwise it will be considered as a weak/falling U.S. dollar.
The U.S. GDP growth has declined for two consecutive quarters, with the previous two initial values being 1.6% and 1.3% respectively. The result of the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes to fight inflation is that the U.S. economy is weak in a high-interest rate environment. If GDP continues to decline, it is likely to increase the Federal Reserve's expectations for rate cuts, driving up risk assets such as Bitcoin.
US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for May will be released at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time on Friday (June 28), with a forecast of 2.6% and a previous value of 2.8%.
Since the beginning of this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and his officials have stated that high interest rates will have to be maintained for a period of time because inflation has not yet reached the target. PCE, the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to, has remained at 2.8% for three consecutive months. The Federal Reserve believes that this is a signal that inflation has not yet cooled down. Therefore, if personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in May decreases from the previous value, it is expected to increase expectations for interest rate cuts, driving up risk assets such as Bitcoin.
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