Translation: Blockchain in Vernacular
BLAST’s token economic model has been released, with an estimated supply of 100 million coins and 10 trillion credits. How much might it be worth?
This article will discuss Blast’s FDV scenarios, coin valuations, and airdrop estimates. Also… why don’t we talk about sybils?
To recap: Blast announced that its total supply is 100 billion. 17% of the supply is for S1 airdrops, 7% for coins, 7% for points, and 3% for Blur farmers.
1. Points and Tokens
So: 7 billion Blast tokens will be awarded for all coins, and 7 billion Blast tokens will be awarded for all points. We don't have an official supply for points and coins, but some estimates are around 8-10 billion coins (taking into account recommendations). As a pessimistic case, let's assume a supply of 100 million coins.
At a total supply of 100 million gold coins, each GOLD is equivalent to 70 $BLAST. (7000000,000 airdrops / 100000,000 total gold supply) = 70 Blast per BOLD.
So what about points?
Blast's official website shows the relationship between coins and points: "20483 coins will receive an airdrop equal to 2224255462 points"
This means 1 coin = 108590 points.
If we base this on a total of 100 million coins, we can estimate the total credit supply to be → 1085900000000 (1080 billion credits)
Remember, points will earn 7 billion tokens, so each point is equivalent to approximately 0.00064463 $BLAST.
100000 points = 64.46 $BLAST.
We now (pessimistically) estimate the following relationship:
1 GOLD = 70 $BLAST
100000 points = 65 $BLAST
So, how much could Blast possibly be worth?
2. BLAST price scenario
Next, looking at the BLAST price scenario, and comparing it to Ethereum’s Layer 2 scaling proposals, we can see that if Blast outperforms them all at 10 billion FDV, the token price will be $0.10.
Arbitrum is the largest layer 2 scaling solution with the highest total locked value (TVL) and the largest FDV. If Blast had the same FDV, the token price would be $0.083.
Optimism is the second largest layer-2 scaling solution, and while its total locked value (TVL) is $678 million, its FDV is $7.6 billion. If Blast had the same FDV as Optimism, the token price would be $0.076.
BLAST Token Airdrop Price Scenario:
Blast → 10 million points = $650
Blast Moderate → 100 coins = $325
Blast Pessimism → 100 coins = 130 USD
Please remember that this is just entertainment and we are basing our scenarios on speculation.
1) We don’t know the total supply of gold coins (the basis of this topic).
2) We don't know how the market will price Blast relative to its competitors.
3) We don’t know if the relationship between coins and points will remain the same.
These are all unknown factors, so the above scenario is just a guess.
3. Summary
Overall (aside from the unfortunate market conditions), I think this airdrop was very well executed. There was no talk of forger attacks. Small wallets and users were able to participate through tokens.
We are not talking about counterfeiter attacks because farmers have to do real work (tokens) or be authentic.
