According to Jin10 data reports, recent spot copper prices have been running weakly, with a downward shift in price focus. As of January 2, the average price of 1# electrolytic copper from SMM was 73,460 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.34% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.30%.
On the macro front, U.S. economic indicators show strong inflation resilience, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, leading to a weakening of short-term macro guidance for copper prices.
Fundamentally, there have been many inventory reduction operations by smelters before the holiday, with traders selling at low prices, while downstream processing enterprises focus on destocking, resulting in limited demand. After the holiday, smelters will resume production, and market supply may shift from tight to loose.
In summary, macro guidance has weakened, and the fundamentals may indicate oversupply, suggesting that copper prices are likely to be under pressure and volatile in the short term, with a risk of downward shift.