What is a "black swan" in the market and can it be curbed

A "black swan" is a hard to predict and a rare event that nevertheless has significant consequences. The theory was invented by American mathematician and economist Nassim Taleb in 2004. Almost all significant scientific discoveries, historical and political events, art and cultural achievements, such as the development and introduction of the Internet, World War I, the stock market crash in the United States in 1929, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the global economic #crisis of 2008 are "black swan" type events.

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) declared bankruptcy.

Against this background, the cryptocurrency market also collapsed. #USDC #Stablecoin has been detached from the dollar after the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, where Circle held $3.3 billion in collateral. Bloomberg writes that this is the largest bank collapse in the U.S. since the 2008 crisis. The reason was the withdrawal by the technological startups of their funds from the bank accounts. The financial regulator in California said that the bank will get a temporary administration and insured depositors will get their money no later than Monday morning. According to Bloomberg, SVB had about $209 billion in total assets and $175 billion in deposits as of December 2022.

In the screenshot you can see the U.S. bank situation now. (March 11, 2023)

How do investors prepare for black swans?

#BlackSwans can affect almost all areas. Sometimes events occur almost instantaneously. So how do you protect yourself from their influence?

In his book, Taleb wrote that the best way to mitigate the negative influence of black swans is not to try to predict them. According to the author, it is instead necessary to develop a stable and sustainable plan that will help reduce the probability of such an event or mitigate its consequences.

Diversify capital by asset type and location

Accept that the next black swan is bound to happen

Take advantage of the opportunities that black swans provide

In 2017-2019, the economist spoke positively about #bitcoin , calling it the first organic currency. He saw the strength of digital money in the fact that it could not be controlled by central banks.

However, Taleb later changed his mind. The economist said that we can't rely on bitcoin - it won't save money from inflation. According to Taleb, cryptocurrency is not a hedging tool and does not protect against geopolitical risks. "Bitcoin is not an insurance against geopolitical events, but just the opposite."

Black Swans and other threats really do come down to risk management and its basic applications. A good formula to apply is RISK = THREAT X VULNERABILITY X CONSEQUENCE. We can use this formula combined with new advanced computing to better predict, synthesize data, and mitigate extreme events. It is never too late to start planning.

In a recent statement, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, confidently declared that the U.S. banking crisis is finally over. Dimon's optimistic outlook on the banking sector comes as a result of the industry's resilience in the face of the economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, despite Dimon's reassurances, many experts remain cautious, pointing out the lingering vulnerabilities within the financial sector.

Dimon's Perspective: Dimon's declaration of the end of the banking crisis is based on the remarkable recovery observed in the banking industry over the past year. He highlights the successful implementation of financial stimulus measures, effective risk management practices, and the adaptability of banks in navigating the pandemic-induced uncertainties. Dimon emphasizes that the sector's robust capitalization, improved balance sheets, and the support provided by government policies have positioned banks to withstand future shocks.

Expert Opinions: Contrary to Dimon's optimism, experts argue that the financial sector is not entirely out of the woods yet. They stress that the recovery is fragile and vulnerabilities persist. One concern is the mounting levels of corporate and government debt, which could pose significant risks in the event of a sudden economic downturn. Additionally, experts highlight potential challenges arising from low interest rates, the impact of inflation, and the need for continued regulatory oversight to prevent excessive risk-taking.

The Financial Sector's Vulnerabilities: Experts caution that despite the apparent recovery, certain vulnerabilities within the financial sector remain a cause for concern. One key issue is the uneven distribution of economic recovery, with some sectors and demographics still struggling. This disparity can affect loan repayments and lead to potential defaults, impacting the stability of financial institutions. Furthermore, the ongoing technological advancements and the rise of fintech pose both opportunities and risks, necessitating enhanced cybersecurity measures and regulatory adaptation.

Balancing Confidence and Caution: While Dimon's declaration brings optimism, it is crucial to maintain a balanced perspective on the state of the financial sector. The industry has undoubtedly made significant strides in recovering from the recent crisis, but the long-term effects and potential future challenges cannot be overlooked. It is essential for policymakers, regulators, and financial institutions to remain vigilant, address existing vulnerabilities, and adapt to a rapidly changing landscape to ensure a resilient and sustainable banking system.

Conclusion: Jamie Dimon's confident assertion that the U.S. banking crisis is over reflects the industry's remarkable resilience during challenging times. However, experts argue that caution is still warranted, emphasizing the need to address the remaining vulnerabilities within the financial sector. Achieving a robust and sustainable banking system requires ongoing monitoring, adaptive strategies, and collaboration between industry stakeholders. Striking a balance between optimism and preparedness will be crucial in navigating the future of the financial sector.

#US #crisis #BTC #dyor #bankruptcy

Inflation is defined as a continuous rise in prices, affecting economic stability and making it difficult for countries to achieve their growth targets. Central banks and governments play a crucial role in combating inflation. High inflation can increase income inequality, affect investments, and lead to social discontent. Controlling inflation is vital for economic stability. Let's take a look at four examples of the highest inflation waves in history and their economic backgrounds. #inflation

Hungary's 1946 Inflation Crisis:

In 1946, Hungary struggled with one of the highest inflation waves in history. During this period, the country had to cope with the devastating effects of World War II. Hungary, under the influence of the Communist regime of the Soviet Union, experienced economic and financial difficulties.

One of the main causes of inflation was the policy of printing money to cover war expenses. However, the political instability and puppet regime created under the influence of the Soviet Union made it difficult to combat inflation. The country constantly increased the money supply, but production couldn't keep up. This led to rapid price increases and uncontrollable inflation.

The Hungarian government continued the policy of printing money to solve its financial problems. However, this policy resulted in accelerating inflation and devaluation of the currency. In 1946, the monthly inflation rate exceeded 1,500%. This led to a decrease in people's purchasing power and a decline in living standards.

The inflation crisis worsened when combined with food and material shortages. Prices rose so rapidly that even essential goods became unaffordable. The daily inflation rate reached astronomical levels, such as 207%. This meant that the prices of goods and services doubled on average every 15 hours. Savings rapidly lost value, and people had to shop on a daily basis.

This inflation crisis created significant discontent and economic instability among the population. The government implemented reforms to balance the economy and control inflation. A new currency called the Hungarian Forint was introduced, and efforts were made to combat inflation. However, the effects of inflation persisted for a long time, and it took years for the country to recover economically.

Zimbabwe's 2008 Inflation Crisis:

In 2008, Zimbabwe faced one of the highest inflation rates in history. Internal and external factors such as Robert Mugabe's agricultural reforms and money printing policies caused a major economic crisis. The collapse of the agricultural sector, seizure of land from white farmers, and disruptions in production by inexperienced black farmers resulted in a decrease in food production and restrictions on imports.

At the same time, the Mugabe government started printing large amounts of money to finance public spending. This led to a rapid increase in the money supply and uncontrollable inflation. Borrowing from the central bank to finance budget deficits further exacerbated inflation.

In 2008, the inflation rate in Zimbabwe reached extraordinary levels, estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands or even millions of percent. This meant that people had to constantly spend more money. The daily inflation rate was approximately 95%, which meant that people had to purchase goods and services at twice the price they paid earlier.

Inflation, along with the devaluation of the currency, resulted in constantly rising prices for essential goods. People had to wait in line for hours to get basic necessities such as food, water, and medicine. Famine occurred, the unemployment rate rose to 80%, and overall living conditions deteriorated significantly.

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe ceased money printing and restricted access to foreign currencies to intervene in the inflation crisis. In 2009, the use of the Zimbabwean dollar was discontinued, and foreign currencies such as the US dollar and the South African rand were accepted. This change resulted in 1 US dollar being equivalent to 2,621,984,228 Zimbabwean dollars.

Yugoslavia's 1994 Inflation Crisis:

After the dissolution of Yugoslavia, a major economic crisis erupted in 1994. The instability and conflicts during the dissolution process left the country facing one of the longest hyperinflation periods in history. Newly independent states started creating their own currencies and struggled to maintain stability and implement consistent economic policies. Political and ethnic conflicts, civil wars, and economic collapse resulted in rapid price increases. The cessation of production and trade, disruptions in supply chains, and hyperinflation led to incredibly high inflation rates.

Regions of Yugoslavia such as Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina experienced monthly inflation rates in the thousands or even millions of percent. This made it difficult for people to meet their basic needs, increased poverty, and spread social unrest. The economic crisis was a result of incorrect economic policies, corruption, and structural problems in the economy.

The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) experienced the second-longest hyperinflation period in world economic history, lasting for 22 months, with monthly inflation reaching over 313 million percent in January 1994. This crisis was recorded as one of the largest hyperinflation periods in history, creating significant challenges for the country and its people. Economic recovery took many years.

Germany's 1923 Inflation Crisis:

The year 1923 is remembered as one of the most devastating inflation periods in German history. The rapid depreciation of Germany's currency, the Reichsmark, led to an incredible surge in prices. The main causes of inflation were the heavy economic burdens imposed by the Treaty of Versailles and the German government printing money to finance war debts.

The inflation process began in 1921 but reached its peak in 1923. People, forced to spend their rapidly depreciating money, further fueled inflation by purchasing goods and services. Inflation increased so rapidly that people believed saving money was meaningless and started buying goods immediately.

Inflation ended in 1923, and people started using a different currency called the "papiermark" or "inflation mark." Eventually, in 1924, a new currency called the Rentenmark was introduced, successfully bringing inflation under control.

The 1923 German inflation is considered one of the most dramatic inflation events in history. The economic crisis and social unrest during this period undermined the credibility of the Weimar Republic, leading to political instability and the rise of far-right political groups.

In Summary:

The highest inflation waves in history, experienced by countries like Hungary, Zimbabwe, Yugoslavia, and Germany, caused significant economic and social problems. These crises were a result of incorrect economic policies, political instability, wars, and other factors. Hyperinflation represents the most extreme cases where inflation becomes uncontrollable and poses a serious threat to a country's economic stability. These historical events underline the importance of controlling inflation and ensuring economic stability. #economics #economy #crisis #bitcoin $BTC