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The price of Pi Network has come under significant downward pressure throughout January. Volatility across the broader crypto market remains elevated, and unfavorable conditions are weighing on Pi Coin more heavily than on many other projects. This is not just a general risk-off move—it is largely driven by structural supply dynamics that short-term improvements in sentiment have failed to offset.

Supply Outpaces Demand as Token Unlocks Continue
The main source of pressure remains the ongoing daily release of new tokens. More than 4.6 million PI enter circulation each day, systematically reducing scarcity and limiting upside potential. As a result, even brief rebounds tend to run quickly into supply, preventing the price from holding higher levels.
The situation is further complicated by an upcoming larger unlock of roughly 55.8 million PI toward the end of the month. Markets are already pricing this in, dampening buyers’ willingness to step in aggressively. Investors recognize that supply growth is pre-programmed and independent of sentiment or near-term fundamentals.
Recent improvements in payment features and ecosystem utility have yet to translate into a meaningful increase in demand. For now, growing use cases have not been sufficient to absorb the steady flow of newly unlocked tokens.

Large Exchange Balances Amplify Selling Pressure
Another negative factor is the sizeable PI balances held on centralized exchanges, totaling approximately 419 million tokens. These reserves represent readily available supply that can quickly hit the market, acting as a persistent cap on price advances.
Whenever short-term demand appears, part of this exchange-held supply tends to be sold, stalling recovery attempts. The result is a market where supply growth continues to outpace organic demand, leaving the price structure skewed toward distribution.

Technical Picture: Structure Breaks Down as Bears Take Control
From a technical standpoint, conditions deteriorated further after Pi Coin fell below the key $0.20 level, which flipped from support into resistance. This breakdown ended the prior consolidation phase and shifted the market into a continuation of the downtrend.
While a temporary floor has formed near $0.18, buying interest remains defensive rather than proactive. Rallies are shallow and quickly met with renewed selling pressure.
Technical indicators reinforce this bearish outlook:
Price is trading below the parabolic SAR around $0.208The negative directional index significantly outweighs the positiveAn ADX near 26 suggests the trend still has strength and is not yet exhausted
If momentum fails to improve, the next area of market focus lies around $0.15, where a potential stabilization attempt could emerge.

Summary: January as a Stress Test for Pi Network
Pi Network appears to be experiencing one of its most challenging months in recent history. The combination of regular token unlocks, large exchange balances, and a weakened technical structure makes sustained upside difficult.
Until there is clear absorption of supply and a reclaim of prior key levels, the longer-term price outlook remains strained and fragile. January is shaping up as a crucial stress test for the project—and so far, Pi Network is struggling to pass it.

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Pi Network’s Pi Coin (PI) staged a modest rebound on Tuesday after sliding to a new all-time low of $0.150, marking the weakest price level since the token began trading on centralized exchanges. While the recovery offers short-term relief, broader indicators suggest that risks remain elevated.
The sharp decline has become a critical stress test for Pi Coin, as opposing forces continue to shape its near-term outlook. On one side, declining exchange reserves point to reduced immediate selling pressure. On the other, upcoming token unlocks and weak market participation remain potential headwinds.
Market-Wide Risk-Off Sentiment Pressures Pi Coin
The broader crypto market has recently been under pressure following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs targeting eight European Union countries, which triggered heightened volatility across global risk assets.
While safe-haven assets such as gold and silver rallied, equities and crypto-related instruments weakened. Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $95,000, and Ethereum (ETH) also recorded losses. Against this backdrop, Pi Coin did not escape the sell-off.
Market data shows PI briefly fell to $0.150 on OKX, printing a pronounced long lower wick on the daily chart. This price action suggests that sellers attempted to force a deeper decline but were met with strong buying interest at lower levels, resulting in a rejection of further downside.
Such behavior typically reflects heightened volatility rather than sustained bearish control, indicating that demand exists below the current price range, even if confidence remains fragile.
Exchange Data Signals Reduced Immediate Selling Pressure
Supporting this view, exchange balance data from Piscan indicates a decline in Pi Coin holdings on centralized platforms. As of January 20, exchanges collectively held approximately 420 million PI, valued at around $75.6 million.
This figure represents a reduction of nearly 7 million tokens since early January, suggesting that some investors may have bought the dip and moved their holdings off exchanges. At the time of writing, PI was trading near $0.189, posting a modest 1% gain over the past 24 hours.
While falling exchange reserves can reduce short-term selling pressure, this signal alone is not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
Low Volume and Token Unlocks Cloud the Outlook
Despite the rebound, Pi Coin’s recovery remains structurally weak. Weekly trading volume has dropped sharply, falling below $100 million, a dramatic 99% decline from the peak weekly volumes exceeding $10 billion recorded in March 2025.
Low trading volume often reflects limited investor participation, making price rebounds difficult to sustain. This lack of engagement is further confirmed by Google Trends data, which shows search interest for “Pi Network” remaining subdued, registering just 5 at press time.
Looking ahead, supply dynamics may introduce additional pressure. The Pi Network is scheduled to unlock more than 140 million tokens over the next 30 days, increasing the circulating supply.
Token unlocks often act as a short-term headwind, as newly available tokens can prompt holders to realize gains or rebalance positions. If demand does not rise proportionally, the increase in supply may weigh on price stability.
Cautious Balance Between Support and Risk
Taken together, Pi Coin’s recent price action reflects a market caught between dip-buying interest and structural challenges. While reduced exchange balances and downside rejection offer temporary support, weak volume and upcoming token unlocks suggest that volatility is likely to remain elevated.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects personal analysis. It does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any outcomes resulting from actions taken based on this content.
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