Past week has been a wild ride for cryptocurrencies. Prices bounced around significantly, leaving investors unsure of the market's overall direction.
CoinShares reports a $862 million crypto market inflow this week, nearly reversing outflow of $931 million. Bitcoin surged to $70,000, attracting investment and boosting Bitcoin ETF assets.
However, not all cryptocurrencies are sharing Bitcoin's success. Ethereum ($ETH ) and some altcoins bucked the trend, experiencing outflows despite the overall bullish sentiment. Solana ($SOL ), Polkadot, Cardano, Ripple, and Litecoin did see some inflows, but these paled in comparison to Bitcoin's dominance.
This focus on Bitcoin is likely due to the upcoming halving event, scheduled for April 20th. Historically, halvings have been followed by significant price increases for Bitcoin, and investors are hoping for a repeat performance. The halving will cut the mining reward in half, reducing the supply of new Bitcoin and potentially driving prices up.
Will $BTC soar again, or will the altcoins have their day? The answer may lie in how the market reacts to the upcoming halving event.
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Historically, Bitcoin halvings have triggered short-term volatility but long-term bullish trends, characterized by a diminishing percentage increase in price after each halving event.
Published: 11/04/2024
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Author: Leexim

Bitcoin dropped to as low as $67,700 yesterday before rebounding and is currently trading at $70,500. As the cryptocurrency industry anticipates the next halving event, market analysts and investors are closely observing the potential impacts on Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin Remains Bullish Before the Halving
The halving, a reward reduction program for miners, is expected to occur on April 20. It will cut the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, effectively reducing Bitcoin’s inflation rate from 1.7% to 0.85% annually.
Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with short-term volatility but tend to lead to long-term price appreciation. Vincent Maliepaard, Marketing Director at IntoTheBlock, noted that the 2016 and 2020 halving events saw significant price surges followed by short-term corrections, ultimately breaking previous all-time highs within a few months.
Bitcoin Price Performance by Halving. Source: IntoTheBlock
While short-term volatility may occur around halving events, the reduction in supply can positively impact prices over time.
Another notable trend is the diminishing rate of price increases after each halving. For instance, after the first halving, Bitcoin’s value surged by 4,802%, but this rate of growth has decreased with subsequent halvings.
Maliepaard stated, “With Bitcoin’s current market capitalization, achieving similar percentage increases would require significantly larger investments, indicating that future percentage increases may diminish.”
The momentum from Bitcoin ETF
The upcoming halving event also differs in some aspects. Indeed, Bitcoin has surpassed its all-time high, possibly due to significant institutional investment following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. This institutional capital inflow, combined with consistent demand from ETFs and reduced supply, could further drive up Bitcoin’s value.
Furthermore, cryptocurrency “whales” are engaging in higher accumulation strategies and holding positions in anticipation of potential price increases. These actions demonstrate a blend of short-term speculation and long-term strategic moves to preserve Bitcoin as a scarce asset.
Generally, these models demonstrate deeper insights and adaptability to the impact of the halving cycle on Bitcoin’s value over time.
“In my view, there’s a clear trend towards larger transaction volumes, especially transactions worth over $100,000, particularly since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF. In previous halving cycles, these figures mainly started increasing towards the end of bull markets,” Maliepaard shared.
Number of Large Bitcoin Transactions. Source: IntoTheBlock
Another interesting observation by Maliepaard is the increase in the proportion of Mining Flow volume. Over the past year, the percentage of volume has increased from around 4% to over 12%, a 200% rise. This increase in the sharing of Mining Flow volume is crucial as it indicates significant changes in miner behavior, which could impact Bitcoin’s supply dynamics and liquidity.
Related: This Bitcoin Bull Run Is Unlike Previous Cycles
Although the anticipated Bitcoin halving is expected to bring short-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, driven by reduced supply and ongoing institutional interest.
“Reducing emissions as planned is one of the important economic measures to differentiate Bitcoin from fiat currencies. During the periods before and after the Bitcoin halving cycle, market sentiment often shifts from anticipation to optimism as investors speculate on the impact of halving on Bitcoin scarcity and price,” Maliepaard concluded.
Investors should monitor key indicators such as transaction volumes and miner behavior to assess the impact of halving on the market.
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With the imminent halving of Bitcoin on the horizon, it's natural for investors to experience heightened apprehension. However, it's crucial to maintain composure and approach the situation with a clear perspective.

As the halving draws near, the market may undergo increased volatility, potentially leading to a prolonged period of uncertainty. Anticipating a potential long squeeze, my analysis highlights two critical areas of interest: $69,000 and $67,000. The region between these two price points is pivotal, as a breach below $67,000 could signal confirmation of a long squeeze scenario. Furthermore, a dip below $67,000 may indicate a corrective movement towards the liquidity zone at $62,000.

It's important to emphasize that Bitcoin remains fundamentally sound despite market fluctuations. Panic is unwarranted, and investors are urged to remain calm and rational in their decision-making process.

For timely updates and further insights into navigating the evolving cryptocurrency landscape, consider following me. Your support through tipping is greatly appreciated and enables me to continue providing credible analysis and guidance to our community.
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The honeymoon period appears to be over for Bitcoin ETFs, with inflows turning negative to kick off the second quarter of 2024. This comes after a strong showing in Q1, which was fueled by anticipation surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving event.
Analysts are now left wondering if the initial excitement for these financial instruments has waned, or if this is merely a temporary pullback.
Here's a deeper dive into the recent slowdown in Bitcoin ETF inflows and what it might signal for the future of these investment vehicles.
Strong Start, Stuttering Steps
Bitcoin ETFs, which track the price of Bitcoin without the need for investors to directly hold the cryptocurrency, enjoyed a surge in popularity in the early months of 2024. This was largely attributed to the approaching Bitcoin halving, an event that cuts Bitcoin's mining reward in half, historically leading to price increases.
However, as we enter Q2, data suggests that investors are becoming more cautious. Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have dipped into negative territory, indicating that more money is flowing out than in.
Reasons for the Reversal
Several factors could be contributing to this shift in sentiment.
Post-Halving Letdown: With the halving event now behind us, some investors who poured money into Bitcoin ETFs in anticipation of a price surge might be taking profits or moving their holdings elsewhere.Broader Market Jitters: The global stock market has experienced some volatility in recent weeks, which could be leading investors to adopt a more risk-averse approach, impacting Bitcoin ETFs along with other growth-oriented assets.Regulatory Uncertainty: Regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrency remains an overhang for the market. This could be causing some investors to stay on the sidelines until the regulatory landscape becomes clearer.
Is This a Temporary Blip?
It's still early to say definitively whether the slowdown in Bitcoin ETF inflows is a cause for concern. The cryptocurrency market is known for its high volatility, and investor sentiment can shift quickly.
However, this development is worth watching closely. If the negative inflows persist, it could be a sign that the initial hype surrounding Bitcoin ETFs has begun to fade.
The Future of Bitcoin ETFs
Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin ETFs are still a relatively new asset class with significant growth potential. The long-term viability of these instruments will likely depend on several factors, including:
The overall performance of Bitcoin: If Bitcoin's price continues to rise over the long term, Bitcoin ETFs will become increasingly attractive to investors seeking exposure to this asset class.Regulatory clarity: Clear and consistent regulations from governments around the world would provide much-needed certainty for investors and issuers of Bitcoin ETFs.Innovation in the ETF space: The development of new and innovative Bitcoin ETF products could attract a wider range of investors to this market.
The coming months will be crucial for Bitcoin ETFs. How these instruments perform in the face of a more cautious investment environment will shed light on their future prospects.
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