Cardano (ADAUSD) just gave the strongest long-term buy signal possible on the 1W time-frame as the 1W LMACD is forming a Bullish Cross. That is the first such formation in almost 1 year (since October 09 2023), indicating that we have the most powerful buy signal at hand.
The 1W RSI has been ranging since May, practically for the majority of the time that ADA has been trading below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Basically as you can see all the above conditions are identical to the previous Bull Cycle, where a Bullish Megaphone emerged on a 1W LMACD Bullish Cross and after a 1W MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross, the bottom was formed, while the 1W RSI was consolidating.
This time we have all these formations emerged again, so any week now, Cardano could start its new Parabolic Rally. With a Higher Highs trend-line setting a clear Resistance, we see a $5.00 price as a strong Target for the Cycle Top.
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More than a year ago (July 24 2023, see chart below), we published our long-term expectations and pattern for Dogecoin's (DOGEUSD) Bull Cycle:

As you can see, it filled our projection quite effectively as it extended the Accumulation Phase (blue). That was a phase which, as you can see, was present during both of its previous Cycles and after a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross and a subsequent hold of the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), it came out of a (dotted) Channel Down/ Bull Flag and entered its Parabolic Rally phase (green).
As far as timing of the Cycle Top is concerned, we have a very consistent pattern which suggests that it is priced just after the 3.0 Fibonacci Time extension from the bottom of the Bear Cycle. That was accurate for both of the January 01 2018 and April 26 2021 Cycle Tops. As a result, the Top of the current Cycle should be expected a little after August 04 2025, assuming the true bottom of the last Bear Cycle was on the week of October 03 2022 (just before the FTX crash).
But what about the actual Top in price terms, you might be wondering? Well the first two Cycle Highs (January 20 2014 and January 01 2018) were priced just below the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level. The next one (April 26 2021) was priced higher on the 1.0 Fib on a technical overextension as it was the Cycle where DOGE experienced its strongest adoption and awareness.
It would be difficult to repeat this feat this time, unless some news/ fundamentals introduce new uses/ adoption and the market reacts with very aggressive capital inflows. In this new overextension case, we may see $6.00.
But our proper Target for this Cycle always was and remains $2.00, which falls marginally below the 0.786 Fib, just like the Tops of the first two Cycles.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is only 10 days before the month of September closes its 1M candle and not only has it rebounded aggressively on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) but is also holding the Symmetrical Pivot Zone for the 7th straight month.
This Zone is critical because during the previous Cycle in late 2021 it served as Resistance and since the recent March 2024 break-out, it has been acting as Support.
The Bullish Legs on the 2-year Channel Up indicate that if this month closes above the Symmetrical Pivot Zone and inside the Channel Up, $100000 is well within reach, even by the end of the year. Especially after the market got what it wanted from the Fed yesterday (-0.50% Rate Cut).
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POPCATUSD has been trading within a Rising Wedge pattern and is currently on a new Bullish Leg (green). With the Internal Higher Highs trend-line just above, we expect a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which will present a buy opportunity at the bottom of the pattern. Our Target is 1.2500 short-term.
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A month ago (August 13, see chart below) we gave the first bullish break-out signal on Sui (SUIUSD), as the price broke above its Lower Highs trend-line:

As you can see, it re-tested the trend-line to confirm it as a Support and, as expected, it held giving way to a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on Sunday. That is the second and final bullish break-out signal.
As per our original analysis, our Target remains $2.700, marginally below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, as it happened with the March 27 2024 High. A Channel Up to guide the price there is the most likely pattern to emerge. Watch also for a potential 1D Golden Cross by the first week of October.
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Ethereum (ETHUSD) may have completed three straight red months (1M candles) but despite the recent correction, managed to close August above the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), in spite of touching it earlier within the month.
This is a key Support level as it also held during the August - October 2023 bottom formation, initiating the multi-month rally up until March 2024. This makes it a long-term Support and as long as it is holding, it is keeping ETH within bullish territory.
At the same time, the price also held the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the Cycle bottom. The last time that happened was during the previous Cycle in September - October 2020. After it held, this kick-started the Cycle's Parabolic Rally to just above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level.
As a result, as long as the 1M MA50 is holding, we can expect the next High to be as high as 11500, even though 8k would seem more reasonable in terms of market cap and thus feasible as a long-term Target.
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XRP saw a jump of around +9% last Thursday after Grayscale announced the launch of a new trust that gives accredited investors direct exposure to the cryptocurrency. Unlike an exchange-traded fund, the trust will primarily trade over the counter. Trusts are also more susceptible to trading at a price that does not line up with the underlying value of the portfolio.
Could this pave way for a potential ETF? Possibly, and that would certainly put XRPUSD in the same league as the market leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum that are already drawing massive capital inflows following their ETF launch, ushering a new era for cryptocurrency.
But what we can do for the time being, is focus on the short-term technical price action alone and as you can on the 1D time-frame XRP's trend has been bearish since July 13 2023, within a Channel Down pattern.
Currently the price is past the new High, having formed a series of Lower Highs, which have emerged every time after a top. This trend-line didn't break in the past and pushed the price Lower to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel level.
As a result, we can't turn bullish short-term as long as the Lower Highs hold. The action remains bearish, targeting 0.4000 (Fib 0.618). The moment however the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, we will take the short's loss and turn bullish, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.1275.
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Yes. Green Day's famous song suits Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just find under these circumstances. What are they?
Well, it is pure seasonality along its Cycles. This chart is simple. After every Halving since July 2016, Bitcoin enters a phase of choppy trade, with high volatility but it manages to keep the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) intact and support.
Then on the first week of October, it starts the Cycle's most aggressive phase, the Parabolic Rally. This has been confirmed on the past two Cycles and so far on this one, we have already got the Post Halving Chop, while the 1W MA50 was tested and held twice. With October only 3 weeks away, it appears that (if this model keeps repeating itself) we are preparing for a very strong rally that will be difficult to catch if you don't position yourself now.
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