Black Swan❗️ Black Swan❗️ Black Swan❗️

April 29 Huaxia issued Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs;
April 30 Zhao Changpeng sentencing hearing
May 2 Federal Reserve announced interest rate decision;
May 2 Powell held a monetary policy press conference;
May 3 US released non-agricultural data;

SEC is very likely to temporarily reject Ethereum ETF
Fed postponed interest rate cuts
Plus the turbulent international situation on May 6 There is a high probability of a black swan event in the month (5/19)

This is very similar to the bad news in September last year
The market will take off directly afterwards
No opportunity for those who miss out, no callback in the middle (this is the purpose of bottom position)
The bull market will not only rise but not fall, and the decline and retracement are inevitable. Institutions will not carry all the sedan chairs, and will continue to wash out the suspected chips in the middle (the black swan is the opportunity we are waiting for, and we will strike hard)

The overall cyclical trend has not changed, and the story of the bull market continues

Bullish events in the second half of the year:
Ether ETF approval (copycat take-off)
Ether Dencun upgrade
Interest rate cut and large-scale water release
US presidential election

Getting cheap chips is only the first step, and those who are not washed out can enjoy the crazy bull feast patiently. How much carnival there is depends on how many chips you have#大盘走势 #黑天鹅事件

Shocking! The black swan in the history of the cryptocurrency circle, 90% of people went bankrupt on that day! !

March 2020: The "crazy roller coaster" of the cryptocurrency circle
In March of that year, the cryptocurrency circle was like riding a "crazy roller coaster". At the beginning, ETH and BTC were still rebounding slightly, and everyone felt that spring was coming. Who knew that suddenly, the market was like being thrown into an ice cellar, and the temperature dropped sharply!

March 8 & 9: The first taste of the plunge
ETH and BTC plummeted for two consecutive days, and the air force was happy and closed their positions one after another. I still had a glimmer of hope in my heart at that time, thinking that this was just a short-term adjustment.

March 10-11: A short period of calm
The market seems to have entered a sideways consolidation phase. Everyone feels that the risk has passed, and even begins to be eager to open more. I, as an old leek, can't help but be moved.

March 12: The big plunge is coming!
That day, I still remember it vividly. ETH dropped from $1,500 to $150. I went all-in and opened long positions. As a result... That night, the U.S. stock market had its second circuit breaker, and ETH and BTC plummeted by more than 30%! I was liquidated. At that moment, I felt as if I had fallen from the top of the mountain into the abyss.
However, when I saw those comrades who were still struggling, I suddenly felt that I was quite "lucky". At least, I don't have to worry about this crazy market anymore.

March 13: Another critical hit!
Do you think this is over? NO! The next day, the market plummeted by nearly 50% again! Those who were still buying the bottom yesterday are probably cursing now. I looked at the numbers on the screen and secretly rejoiced in my heart: Fortunately, I was liquidated early...

Looking back now, those days were painful, but also quite interesting. At least, I became one of the "lucky" liquidators in the history of the currency circle. So, friends, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market! However, even if you are liquidated, don't forget to smile at life! 😄
#黑天鹅事件 #美国4月CPI数据回落 #机构积极投资比特币ETF #NOT开盘预测

Which black swan event was the most painful?

Mentougou incident in February 2014: Bitcoin plummeted 80%

September 4, 2017: Market value evaporated 80%

March 12, 2020: Ethereum plummeted to $80

May 19, 2021: 600,000 contract dogs were liquidated

Luna black swan event in 2022: DFI field crisis

FTX explosion in 2022: market trust crisis #黑天鹅事件

What did I say? My feeling is really good. Let me predict the next trend. Don't worry about this callback. It fell for two days and then went up again. But when it goes back up, if you have multiple orders, unwind them. Don't open multiple orders anymore. Or set a stop loss, because the real darkness is coming. #黑天鹅事件

What is a Bitcoin Black Swan Event?

Bitcoin Black Swan Events refer to unexpected, significant, and completely unpredictable events that occur in the Bitcoin field. Although these events are unexpected, human nature prompts us to make up reasons for their occurrence after the fact, and more or less believe that it is explainable and predictable. The impact of Bitcoin Black Swan Events is mainly limited to the field of cryptography, but it is still catastrophic.

For example, the Mentougou Incident, the 94 Incident, the 312 Incident, the 519 Incident, the Luna Black Swan Incident, etc. are all major black swan events in the Bitcoin field, which have had a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. These events include not only technical failures and policy and regulatory changes, but also the loss of confidence of market participants, etc., which together constitute the diversity of Bitcoin Black Swan Events. #黑天鹅事件 #BTC

$ETH $ETH

August 5 Today's Views in Brief

Originally, it was suggested to try to rebound from oversold prices, which was a routine operation before.

But this short position repeatedly bottomed out overnight, which was indeed beyond expectations.

Under normal circumstances, the main players do not take action on weekends, and retail investors spend the weekends by themselves, and the market slowly recovers.

I didn't expect that the war now doesn't care whether it is the weekend or not.

It is really difficult for players in the currency circle. It is a 24-hour transaction. Before, they could take a breath and rest on weekends, but now they can't even rest on weekends.

The previous bulls took advantage of the weekend to pull up and liquidate the shorts when the US stock market was not open, and finally suffered retaliation. Once the rules are broken, no one knows where the collapse will be in the future. Can we still spend the holidays steadily in the future?

I think it is difficult. In the main force confrontation, the most miserable are us retail investors. Facing the power of this trend, there is absolutely no way.

Those who are lightly trapped can still change their camps, but those who are severely trapped can't move at all.

Here we will not analyze the market, but only find the possible causes.

It was said before that the US stock market has continued to open low and close low, open high and close low, and the Nasdaq closed negative every day, which is suspected to have entered the summer correction of the US stock market.

Last night's news about Buffett basically confirmed that the US stock market has begun to correct.

He reduced his holdings of Apple's shares by 50%, cashing out 70 billion in cash. In May this year, Buffett also publicly praised Apple's business performance everywhere.

This 180-degree turn in attitude does not seem to be for tax avoidance, but more like risk aversion.

It is very similar to the protective stop loss position we made, when the profit decline is triggered, the action of reducing positions.

Rather than saying that Buffett is not optimistic about Apple, it is better to say that Buffett is not optimistic about the US stock market in the short term.

It is like this every time. When the main force is long, it can resist a lot of bad news and the US stock market falls to pull the market against the trend.

When the main force is shorting, any good news can't move the market, but bad news is everywhere, and any one of them can multiply the panic.

Finally, according to the time calculation, we need about 8-10 days to get out of the correction.

Bullish friends, hold on, don't fall in the darkness before dawn, we are almost on the other side
#热门话题
#黑天鹅事件

#黑天鹅事件
$BTC $LUNA $ETH

Black swan events in the history of the currency circle, each one swept in like a storm, catching people off guard. The following is an overview of these events:

1. Mentougou incident in 2014
Event description: Mt.Gox (Mentougou), the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, collapsed due to a hacker attack, and nearly 850,000 Bitcoins disappeared out of thin air, accounting for 7% of the total number of Bitcoins in the world. Impact: Bitcoin prices plummeted 80%, countless investors lost their money, and the currency circle instantly fell into a wailing.

2. September 4, 2017 incident
Event description: The Chinese government suddenly took action and completely banned ICO (initial coin offering) and Bitcoin transactions. Impact: The entire currency circle's market value evaporated by 80% in an instant, countless investors were forced to leave, and the currency circle was bleak.

3. The plunge on March 12, 2020
Description of the event: The price of Bitcoin plummeted like a roller coaster on this day, from nearly $8,000 to $3,800, and Ethereum fell to $80. Impact: Panic spread in the market, and countless investors suffered heavy losses.

4. Liquidation on May 19, 2021
Description of the event: The cryptocurrency market suffered an unprecedented blow on this day, and more than 600,000 contracts were liquidated instantly. Impact: Countless people lost their fortunes overnight, and the cruel reality of the currency circle was once again bloody and exposed to the world.

5. The Luna Black Swan Event and FTX Thunderbolt Event in 2022
Description of the event: The price of Luna tokens fell from the peak to the bottom and eventually returned to zero; and the thunderbolt of the FTX exchange triggered a crisis of trust in the entire industry. Impact: Countless investors suffered heavy losses in this storm, and the currency circle fell into chaos again.

These black swan events not only brought huge losses to investors, but also exposed the fragility and uncertainty of the cryptocurrency market. However, it is these experiences that make us more aware of the risks and importance of investment. On the road of future investment, we must always be vigilant and act cautiously.

Recently, I am studying a relatively good track.
It is expected to increase by more than 30% in the short term and 5 to 10 times in the long term. The more funds the bull market funds have, the more considerable the income will be!
If you want to get to the root of it, follow me. In front of fans, my bull market strategy layout will be shared for free. I will be a free blogger just to increase my fans.If you come to me, I can take you ashore. I won’t let my fans miss out in this bull market! Just lie down!

Brothers, enter the short position with a light position. You can enter near 2330. I have already entered. The price is relatively low now. We must be prepared for reversal at any time. Therefore, when you enter the short position now, you must set a stop loss. You must treat each short position as the last short position in this cycle. If you lose money, don't sell it. Just wait for the reversal. Open long $ETH
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #黑天鹅事件

Inventory of the six major black swan events in the cryptocurrency circle
1. Mentougou incident in February 2014.
The world's largest Bitcoin exchange MTGOX was hacked and lost nearly 850,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 7% of the total number of Bitcoins in the world. This incident caused Bitcoin to plummet by 80%, triggering a crisis of trust in the cryptocurrency market.
2. The September 4th incident in 2017.
The cryptocurrency market fluctuated greatly, and the market value evaporated by 80% in just a few days. Investors suffered heavy losses, and people also had a deeper understanding of the complexity of the cryptocurrency market.
3. The March 12th incident in 2020.
The price of Ethereum plummeted to below $80, which made people see the impermanence and uncertainty of the cryptocurrency market, but the belief in its potential and value remained firm.
4. The May 19th incident in 2021.
600,000 contract dogs were liquidated overnight, and many investors suffered huge losses, once again reminding that the risks and uncertainties in the cryptocurrency market are extremely high.
5. The Luna black swan incident in 2022.
It triggered a major crisis in the field of decentralized finance (DFI), becoming a major turning point in the cryptocurrency market with far-reaching impact.
6. The FTX explosion in 2022.
It triggered a crisis of trust in the entire cryptocurrency market, and the market suffered a serious blow.
Which black swan events have you experienced in the cryptocurrency circle? ? ? #加密市场回调 #黑天鹅事件

$BTC

If there is another wave at night, the big one will start. Don't do anything else in the second half of the month. Add short positions every day when you wake up.
#黑天鹅事件 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美国7月PPI低于预期

How many black swan events have you experienced?
The first was the Mentougou incident in February 2014, when BTC suffered a sharp drop of 80%. Another major event occurred on September 4, 2017, when the entire crypto market value dropped sharply by 80% due to China's regulatory measures. March 12, 2020 was also unforgettable. The price of ETH fell to $80 and the global market fell into great turmoil. On May 19, 2021, the market crash caused 600,000 contracts to be forced to close, causing heavy losses. The Luna incident in 2022 brought a crisis to the DeFi field, and the collapse of Luna triggered a major crisis in the field of decentralized finance. Also in 2022, the FTX explosion incident severely frustrated the market's trust in cryptocurrencies.
So, what other black swan events do you think may occur next? #黑天鹅事件 #BTC #ETH #sol板块

Long and short again, the idea is disclosed in advance, is anyone following?

50700 long, although I didn't see 53500, I also took profit at 52900

53100 short, 51600 exit, another 1500 points of space, who would have thought that some time ago, I worked hard to watch the market all day and only got a few hundred points.
$BTC $ETH #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #BTC☀ #黑天鹅事件