How much will the ZkSync airdrop be worth?$5000? $10,000? 20,000?
The potential is mind blowing. Get ready to dive into the world of ZkSync and discover why it might just surpass the famous Arbitrum airdrop. Let's break it down 👇
In this post, I've carefully estimated the size of the ZkSync airdrop by comparing key metrics with the Arbitrum and Optimism airdrops. Brace yourself for three exciting scenarios that will help you gauge the magnitude of this opportunity.
Pessimistic Scenario:
If market conditions are unfavorable during the airdrop, with a TVL of $500 million and an FDV of $1.5 billion, the airdrop amount could reach a staggering $990 million. On average, each wallet could receive $600 in this scenario.
Middle Scenario:
Assuming the airdrop takes place tomorrow and we use current stats, with a TVL of $667 million and an FDV of $3 billion, the airdrop could amount to a mind-blowing $1.98 billion. That means an average of $1150 per wallet!
Optimistic Scenario:
Picture this: market conditions are exceptional during the airdrop, with a TVL of $1 billion and an FDV of $6 billion. In this scenario, the airdrop could skyrocket to an astonishing $3.96 billion. That's an average of $2300 per wallet!
But wait, there's more!
The actual number of qualifying addresses will be significantly lower than the estimated 1.7 million, thanks to the exclusion of sybil wallets and other criteria. This means fewer addresses, resulting in a higher airdrop per address. The potential is truly limitless!
Now, let's compare it to the Arbitrum airdrop:
With a TVL of $3.9 billion and an FDV of $12 billion, the Arbitrum airdrop amounted to $1.4 billion. On average, each wallet received $2239. Keep in mind, only 600k addresses qualified for the airdrop after filtering.
How I calculated:
By analyzing the TVL and FDV at the time of the airdrops for Arbitrum and Optimism, I determined the ZkSync FDV by taking the average of both. Then, I used 66% of the FDV as the estimated airdrop amount. Please note, these calculations are highly speculative.
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