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This week, Terra ecosystem tokens USTC and LUNC took the spotlight.
A series of positive developments for the Terra Luna Classic community caused TerraClassicUSD ($USTC) and Terra Luna Classic ($LUNC) to soar, rising 350% and 60%, respectively, in just two days.
As a successor to TerraClassicUSD ($USTC), Mint Cash, a permissionless and price-stable payments and savings currency system based on Bitcoin, was introduced in October. The Terra Luna Classic community and the Mint Cash team share the same vision, but their approaches are entirely different.
In order to improve liquidity on Terra for popular cryptocurrency assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, Terraform Labs (TFL) announced on November 22 that it had invested $15 million in the Astroport and Ura, parts of the Terra ecosystem. USTC and LUNC began to rise as a result.
A further rally was triggered after Binance Futures' announcement on Monday that the USD-M USTC Perpetual Contract would be launched with up to 50x leverage.
But after Terra Money announced that Terraform Labs has no involvement in any way with Mint Cash, the tide turned and the Terra Classic ecosystem tokens, USTC and LUNC, were abandoned. Additionally, Mint Cash refuted any affiliation with Luna Classic Labs partner Trader QT.
Despite the immediate decline brought on by Mint Cash's denial, USTC and LUNC showed gains of 238.3% and 64.6% over the previous seven days, respectively.
Overall Market
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202311/15f01b9b53ce8df043b27a9bf3579cc1.png)
The above chart shows the BTC price from 2022 to 2023.
As was mentioned in the last post, the BTC price is facing some resistance at the $38,000 level. This resistance level was formed back in May 2022, after the Terra-LUNA crash, which sent the BTC price below $30k in a few trading days.
Currently, the BTC price is forming an upper wedge with decreasing volume. With this easing upward momentum, the BTC price has a higher chance of a correction and retesting the lower blue line as support.
If the BTC price breaks below the blue support line, we could see a rapid decline, and the BTC price will find support around the $32k level (the green horizon line).
If the BTC price gains strength and passes the upper blue resistance line, there is no further resistance level until $45,000. A deteriorating USD and strong market risk sentiment in December could lead to a BTC breakout. The potential pivot from the Federal Reserve in the upcoming December FOMC meeting could be the catalyst for this path.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202311/6f85517d12691af582171ae26e679c84.png)
The above chart shows the ETH price in 2023.
Differing from the BTC chart above, the ETH price chart shows a stronger upward signal.
As mentioned in last week’s post, ETH successfully broke the bearish flag formed starting in May this year. On November 9, BlackRock registered to create an Ethereum trust, a potential first step toward asking regulators to approve an exchange-traded fund tied to Ethereum. The ETH price posted a 12.5% gain after the news and touched $2,130 with massive short position liquidation. The correction after the big green candle confirmed the break of the bearish flag.
Currently, the ETH price is facing a resistance level right above $2,130. If ETH can break and hold above that level, we will see more capital flow in the second-largest digital token. there is no further resistance level until $2,500.
Options Market
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202311/87c7e658a97da9f72ab8fd240acaec1c.png)
The above chart shows the 25-delta skewness for BTC mid- and long-term options
Although the skewness in the long-term (180-day expiry) BTC options is relatively stable and positive, the skewness in the near-term (30-day expiry) BTC options shows weakness.
The skewness above 0 means a bullish sentiment for the underlying asset, but the downward movement on skewness signals the momentum is easing away.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202311/2f3e78375189db492976a26ab84c9b35.png)
The above chart shows the 25-delta skewness of ETH mind- and long-term options.
The skewness of ETH options has a similar pattern to that of BTC options. Our desk expects to see a higher correlation between ETH and BTC in the next 30 to 60 days.
However, as discussed in the Overall Market section, ETH has stronger upward momentum than BTC does, and it could signal a potential ETH move in the near future.
Macro at a glance
Last Thursday (2023-11-23)
US markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday
Germany’s economy shrank as GDP growth dropped by 0.1% in Q3, as the market had anticipated. The adjusted Q3 GDP contracted by 0.4% year-over-year.
On Monday (2023-11-27)
Japan’s core CPI came in at 3.0% year-over-year, lower than last month’s 3.4%. The Bank of Japan remains at a negative interest rate of -0.1% with the yield curve control policy in place. With the current inflation rate at 3%, higher than the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%, the pressure on the Bank of Japan to move to a positive interest rate is getting higher.
On Tuesday (2023-11-28)
The US Conference Board's consumer confidence in November was at 102.0, higher than the estimated 101.0 and last month’s 99.1. According to Adobe, US consumers spent $9.8 billion in US online sales on Black Friday, up 7.5% from 2022. Strong consumer confidence and higher retail sales suggest the US economy is resilient after the Fed paused the rate hike in the last FOMC meeting.
In the coming week, we have
US GDP on Wednesday, with an estimated growth at 4.9%, while last quarter's growth was 2.1%.
China’s manufacturing PMI in November, the estimate is 49.6, and the last month’s number was 49.5
Eurozone CPI reading projection in November on Thursday, the estimate is 2.8%
US PCE price index on Thursday, the estimate is 3.1%
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision next Monday
The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision next Wednesday
Convert Portal Volume Breakdown![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202311/5b05dedb415c87572d21e2e0e08be7cb.png)
The above table shows the volume breakdown of our Convert Portal.
Our volume of cryptocurrency to cryptocurrency transactions rose to 18.39% from 16.95%, suggesting a crypto asset rotation by crypto investors. The recent rise of the Terra Classic ecosystem contributed to this sector's weight change.
The volume of cryptocurrency to stablecoin transactions declined from 39.75% to 36.64%, a 3.11% drop in the last seven days. The change implies that investors are holding on to their crypto assets rather than converting back to stablecoins.
Binance Annoucements:
OTC VIP Program
Binance is launching the OTC VIP Program at 2023-11-30 00:00 (UTC). This allows users to qualify for upgrades to VIP 1-4 after they meet 30-day OTC trading volume as well as the minimum daily average BNB holding requirement specified in the table below.
Key Highlights:
OTC trading volume includes the trade volume of Binance OTC Spot Block Trading and Algo Orders.
OTC trading volume will count toward this program starting from 2023-11-30 00:00 (UTC).
The volume from OTC Spot Block Trading will not be included in the calculation of users’ total Binance Spot trading volume. However, the volume generated from Algo Orders will continue to be included in users’ Spot trading volume calculation.
For further information, please refer to the announcement below:
Binance Launches OTC VIP Program
Trade on Binance Algo Orders & Make It to the Top 20 to Win Up to 1,000 USDT!
To celebrate the launch of the Algo Orders platform, Binance OTC is extending a promotion for all eligible users! During the Promotion Period, all eligible users who confirm their participation and trade a total of at least 200,000 USDT equivalent via Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) and Percentage of Volume (POV) Algo Orders, will stand a chance to win 1,000 USDT in token voucher rewards.
For further information, please refer to the announcement below:
Trade on Binance Algo Orders & Make It to the Top 20 to Win Up to 1,000 USDT!
Why trade OTC?
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API.
To access manual price quotations, you may visit our Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/spot), where you can RFQ (request-for-quote) and trade directly with our OTC trading team via a live chat.
To utilise our Algo orders features, you may visit our Binance Algo Orders platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/AlgoTrading).
For any other inquiries on OTC trading, please reach out to us via our email at trading@binance.com for our trading desk to get in touch with you and get started.
OTC trades may also be automatically quoted on Binance Convert and via API, offering users a quick and simple way to execute trades across 60,000+ pairs with one simple click. Binance Convert supports over 350 tokens listed on the exchange including fiat pairs. Begin trading from as little as 1 USD. To start, simply navigate to the Binance Convert & Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert), select the coins you wish to trade, preview and confirm the quote with settlement reflecting almost instantly in your wallet balance. For details and access to Binance Convert OTC API, please refer to our Convert Endpoints (https://binance-docs.github.io/apidocs/spot/en/#convert-endpoints) and reach out to us at trading@binance.com if you have any questions or require assistance.
Visit Binance OTC (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for more information on our OTC products and solutions.
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Email: trading@binance.com
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