According to CoinDesk: Users of Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, are placing high stakes on the launch of one or more bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. by mid-January.
At present, the prediction contract shares for "Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15" are trading at 89 cents, indicating an 89% likelihood of such an approval becoming a reality before the second half of the month. This is a significant increase from the nearly 50% prediction recorded a month ago.
The speculation around the approval of a U.S-based spot ETF sparked off in October and has since seen a surge in bitcoin price over 55% to trade above $45,000. The optimism stemming from the potential influx of investor funds into the bitcoin market via these imminent ETFs is considered the prime driver for this surge.
Since its establishment in 2020, Polymarket has grown to be a leading prediction market, allowing investors to place bets on various events. Traders have so far wagered $437,394 on an ETF-dedicated prediction contract that will be settled in favor of "Yes" if the SEC approves any ETF by January 15.
According to Reuters, the SEC may inform the 14 spot ETF applicants about their approval to launch ETFs in the upcoming weeks as early as Tuesday or Wednesday.
Meanwhile, some traders have chosen to buy shares on the “No” side of the contract as a hedge against bullish exposure in the spot/futures market. This strategy is to protect against price drops if the SEC delays the anticipated ETF launch.
