#stablecoin#USDT#USDC #BUSD
Data meaning:
1. Histogram value <0: represents that the MACD line is less than the signal line, indicating a long-term bearish trend
2. Histogram value > 0: It means that the MACD line is greater than the signal line, which is a long-term positive trend.
3. Dark color of histogram: represents month-on-month acceleration, red represents short-term bearish trend
4. Light color of histogram: represents month-on-month deceleration, pink represents short-term positive trend
Last week's data:
Figure 1: USDT supply histogram, long-term neutral + short-term positive trend
Figure 2 below: BUSD supply histogram, long-term bearish + short-term bullish trend
Figure 3 below: The total supply histogram of USDT+BUSD can represent the momentum of the main trading funds in the market. The sum of the two can also avoid the influence of the rise and fall of a single stablecoin on the judgment of the trend. This chart is currently in a long-term negative + short-term positive trend
Mcap/TVL
Mcap/TVL is the ratio of the total market value of stablecoins to TVL, which reflects the utilization rate of funds of stablecoins on the chain.
The higher the utilization rate, the smaller the Mcap/TVL ratio, which means that the market sentiment tends to be optimistic.
The lower the utilization rate, the larger the Mcap/TVL ratio, which means that market sentiment tends to be pessimistic.
Mcap/TVL current value (February 6): 1.87, panic zone, week-on-week increase: -5%
Summarize:
From the supply point of view, USDT maintains a rapid increase in both supply and momentum. From the absolute value of supply, it has increased from 65.3 billion at the end of last year to the current 68 billion, an increase of 2.7 billion. The histogram is also close to 0, indicating that the long-term trend is gradually improving. The supply of BUSD has also increased from 15.4 billion at the bottom to 16.3 billion, an increase of 900 million. Although the histogram is still far from 0, it also has a clear upward trend.
From the perspective of on-chain fund utilization, Mcap has basically not changed, while TVL has increased by 2 billion funds, which has improved the overall utilization rate. It can be seen that there is also a clear positive trend in sentiment.
With both the capital and sentiment improving, can we say that the bear market has come out? Or is this round of rise just a secondary correction? What should we do if we miss out? Should we chase the rise?
My idea is that current data cannot predict the future, but can only serve as a signpost. If you look back, you will find that the signposts have changed at each stage.
When the road sign is "extreme panic", do you have the courage to continue to invest? When the road sign is "extreme greed", can you insist on selling?
The most important thing in investing is to stand on the opposite side of group sentiment, look at the market without emotions, and you will naturally come up with your own answers.
