• Avalanche ($AVAX), a layer-0 network, has gained 132.8% in the last 30 days, and its market cap is now over $14 billion, ranking 10th in terms of market cap.

  • The recent increase in AVAX could be attributed to traditional financial giants JPMorgan and Citi collaborating with the Avalanche Foundation on real-world asset tokenization initiatives.

  • Furthermore, the Avalanche network's total value locked (TVL) has increased 82% in the last three months, from $490 million to $894 million. According to the valuation matrix, Avalanche may have been undervalued previously, and the recent surge is more about bringing AVAX up to fair market value.

  • Last week, four of the top five coins in terms of interest were in the Layer1/Layer2 zone, indicating a high demand for the infrastructure level in the blockchain space. This could indicate that investors are pouring money into infrastructure blockchains in order to improve the underlying network performance. It may provide some direction for future investments.

Overall Market  

  • The above chart shows the BTC price in 2023.

  • As previously discussed, $45,000 will be a significant resistance level for Bitcoin, and our desk predicted that the price of Bitcoin would move sideways as it approached the resistance level.

  • BTC hit a two-year high of $44,700 on December 8 before plummeting in Asia Monday morning. The US market session on the same day saw the lowest price of Bitcoin recorded at $40,222.

  • Following the release of the US CPI and PPI figures, which aligned with expectations, the Bitcoin price recovered to the $42,000 level. 

  • At today's FOMC meeting, the Fed decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at 5.50%, with Fed Chairman Powell taking a softer tone, saying the Fed is just getting started talking about cuts. According to the updated dot plot, the Fed anticipates a 75 basis point rate cut in 2024. The upbeat outlook drives risky assets higher, with Bitcoin reaching an intraday high of $43,475 during the US session.

  • With the heavy resistance level at $45,000, our desk believes the Bitcoin price will trade sideways between $40k and $45k through the holidays.



Options Market

  • The above table is the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC and ETH options. 

  • Following the recent price correction in BTC and ETH, the near-term options (the 7-day expiries) are priced with implied volatility less than 50%. Meanwhile, the implied volatility of 30-day expiry options on BTC and ETH remains above 50%. 

  • ETH options have higher implied volatility than BTC options across all tenors, according to our research. It is the first time since May 2023 when ETH successfully transitioned from PoW to PoS.

  • According to the above table, ETH could see significant movement in the near term, whereas BTC could be struggling to break through the $45k resistance level.

  • BTC has a year-to-date return of 157%, while ETH has a year-to-date return of only 87%. Given our observations in the current options market, our desk predicts that the performance difference between BTC and ETH will narrow during the holiday season.

Macro at a glance 

  • Last Thursday (2023-12-07)

    • The US Initial jobless claims were 220k, slightly less than the 222k predicted. The labour market in the United States remained tight.

    • Japan's GDP fell by 0.7% quarter on quarter in 2023 Q3, following a 0.9% increase in the previous quarter. GDP growth year over year was -2.9%, down from +3.6% in the previous quarter. 

    • The German CPI change was +3.2% year over year in November, down from 3.8% the previous month. The decline in CPI in Germany, Europe's largest economy, indicates that Europe's disinflationary environment is supporting the rate hike pause decision from the ECB.

  • Last Friday (2023-12-08)

    • US nonfarm payroll rose by 199k in November, exceeding expectations of 180k and representing a significant increase over the previous month's 150k.

    • The US unemployment rate was at 3.7% in November, a decline from 3.9% last month.

    • The increase in nonfarm payrolls in November, combined with a decrease in the unemployment rate, indicates that the mismatch between demand and supply in the US labour market is improving.

  • On Tuesday (2023-12-12)

    • US CPI increased by 3.1% year-over-year in November, dropping from last month’s 3.2%. The core CPI increased by 4.0% year over year, the same as the previous month's figure. Both sets of data met expectations. The declining CPI trend indicates that the US inflation rate is moving in the Fed's favour, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate pause decision by the FOMC on Wednesday. 

  • On Wednesday (2023-12-13)

    • US Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose 0.9% year-over-year in November, lower than the estimated 1.0% and down from the 1.2% increase recorded in October.

    • The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.50% for the third consecutive meeting. The dot plot indicates that there will be three rate cuts in 2024, with the market expecting the first cut as early as June. Fed Chairman Powell softened his tone when speaking to the media, stating that the Fed is just starting to talk about easing policy. While he emphasised that the Fed would continue to roll off its balance sheet, he also mentioned a discussion among FOMC members about lower borrowing costs. The Fed's revised dot plot indicates that, contrary to their September forecast of 5.1%, officials now believe the fed funds rate will peak in 2024 at 4.6%. 

    • Following the Fed's interest rate decision, risk assets gained significantly for the day,

      • Dow Jones Index was up 1.4%, closed at a new all-time high at 37,090.24

      • S&P 500 Index was up 1.37%, closed at 4,707.09

      • Nasdaq Index was up 1.38%, closed at 14,733.96,

      • Russell 2000 Index was up 3.52%, closed at 1,947.51

      • Bitcoin was up 3.32% and reached $43,400, the intraday high

      • Ethereum was up 2.57% and reached $2,285, the intraday high

      • US dollar index (DXY) was down 0.88%, closed at 102.905

Convert Portal Volume Change

  • The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. 

  • Our desk has noticed a significant volume change in the above zones in the past seven days.

  • On Convert, the most notable volume change is the BNB Chain zone. A variety of projects in the BNB ecosystem have seen a large increase in trading volume on Convert.

  • The high demand for BitTorrent ($BTTC) was the primary reason for the Storage zone volume's +121% increase last week. Our desk saw a +272% increase in BTTC trading volume on Convert.

  • OG Fan Token ($OG) and FC Porto Fan Token ($PORTO) are the two largest contributors to the +117% volume growth in the Fan Token zone. The volume changes for OG and PORTO are +403% and +378%, respectively.

  • Recently, the Metaverse zone saw a high trading volume on Convert, posting +76.2% growth week over week. The Sandbox ($SAND) contributed a +147% volume increase in the Metaverse zone.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

To access manual price quotations, you may visit our Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/spot), where you can RFQ (request-for-quote) and trade directly with our OTC trading team via a live chat.

To utilise our Algo orders features, you may visit our BinanceAlgo Orders platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/AlgoTrading). 

For any other inquiries on OTC trading, please reach out to us via our email at trading@binance.com for our trading desk to get in touch with you and get started. 

OTC trades may also be automatically quoted on Binance Convert and via API, offering users a quick and simple way to execute trades across 60,000+ pairs with one simple click. Binance Convert supports over 350 tokens listed on the exchange including fiat pairs. Begin trading from as little as 1 USD. To start, simply navigate to the Binance Convert & Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert), select the coins you wish to trade, preview and confirm the quote with settlement reflecting almost instantly in your wallet balance. For details and access to Binance Convert OTC API, please refer to our Convert Endpoints (https://binance-docs.github.io/apidocs/spot/en/#convert-endpoints) and reach out to us at trading@binance.com if you have any questions or require assistance.

Visit Binance OTC (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for more information on our OTC products and solutions. 

Experience the main benefits of Binance Convert and OTC Trading: 

  • Fast & Competitive Pricing 

  • Instant settlement 

  • Widest availability of coins 

  • Bespoke service with unique market insights 

  • Zero fees and slippage 

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