Let's go in order
On September 11, the cue ball puts 24900
On September 19, it barely rises to 27500, closing at 27200, and begins to roll back to 25990 on September 25
Techies, short traders, etc. call the movement from the 11th to the 19th a decline correction, the movement after the 19th the beginning of a movement to update the low (below 24900)
But - we get a sharp, impulsive reversal and a movement of +2600 points, breaking the local short structure
Yes, the shorts even had an obvious fundamental brought under the shorts - a “transfer” of the next spot ETF, which they wanted to safely short
But. During this entire movement, only 77 million were liquidated. 77 million, Karl! Not enough
Now I see four options with a probability of 45/30/20/5
1) Either from the current ones, or through a gap at CME (26900, squeezes are allowed), exit to the 28600-29600 block and a further decrease to the 20000-22000 block (which, by the way, we expect in the medium term, as we expected 30K when everyone were planning to go from 16500 to 12000) - 45%
2) Either from the current ones, or through a gap on CME, exit to 32000+ and a further decrease of 20000-22000 - 30%
3) Exit to 28580 - this was a LP, return to the downward channel and a decrease straight from the current ones to 20000-22000 - 20%
4) Either from the current ones, or through a gap on CME - exit with a fix at 32000 and then 36000-40000 - 5%
In the first scenario, we will simply and logically destroy the shorts that opened during the current movement, a purely local technical development
In the second scenario, we will destroy large liquidity, plant longs at the very least, and we can aggressively fall down so that not a single long can come to its senses
In the third scenario - everything has already been stolen before us, demolished, which means the repeated decline will occur with rebounds and it will obviously be possible to safely continue the rebounds from the first support
At the fourth, there will be a bacchanalia in the market :)
Pay attention to the first two paragraphs of the current review. The key word was techies
The techies think we're in for a short. Whether from the current ones, or through a minor update of the local high (28600+). But - there is no alternative - short
That’s exactly why sometimes when they ask the question “What kind of money will we grow with,” the answer is none 🤷♂️
Well, either - on the money of the shortlists
To summarize, let’s fix:
- I still think 20000-22000 is extremely likely (though not necessarily, at 24000 block 20-22 will become too “obvious” and new variables may change the equation)
- I give a high probability to a small local overshoot
- I fully admit the possibility of going above 30K in order to slightly disturb the ranks of experts :)
Peace, profit and green PnL to everyone
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rDsAq4iy/
#review
#BTC
Let's go in order
On September 11, the cue ball puts 24900
On September 19, it barely rises to 27500, closing at 27200, and begins to roll back to 25990 on September 25
Techies, short traders, etc. call the movement from the 11th to the 19th a decline correction, the movement after the 19th the beginning of a movement to update the low (below 24900)
But - we get a sharp, impulsive reversal and a movement of +2600 points, breaking the local short structure
Yes, the shorts even had an obvious fundamental brought under the shorts - a “transfer” of the next spot ETF, which they wanted to safely short
But. During this entire movement, only 77 million were liquidated. 77 million, Karl! Not enough
Now I see four options with a probability of 45/30/20/5
1) Either from the current ones, or through a gap at CME (26900, squeezes are allowed), exit to the 28600-29600 block and a further decrease to the 20000-22000 block (which, by the way, we expect in the medium term, as we expected 30K when everyone were planning to go from 16500 to 12000) - 45%
2) Either from the current ones, or through a gap on CME, exit to 32000+ and a further decrease of 20000-22000 - 30%
3) Exit to 28580 - this was a LP, return to the downward channel and a decrease straight from the current ones to 20000-22000 - 20%
4) Either from the current ones, or through a gap on CME - exit with a fix at 32000 and then 36000-40000 - 5%
In the first scenario, we will simply and logically destroy the shorts that opened during the current movement, a purely local technical development
In the second scenario, we will destroy large liquidity, plant longs at the very least, and we can aggressively fall down so that not a single long can come to its senses
In the third scenario - everything has already been stolen before us, demolished, which means the repeated decline will occur with rebounds and it will obviously be possible to safely continue the rebounds from the first support
At the fourth, there will be a bacchanalia in the market :)
Pay attention to the first two paragraphs of the current review. The key word was techies
The techies think we're in for a short. Whether from the current ones, or through a minor update of the local high (28600+). But - there is no alternative - short
That’s exactly why sometimes when they ask the question “What kind of money will we grow with,” the answer is none 🤷♂️
Well, either - on the money of the shortlists
To summarize, let’s fix:
- I still think 20000-22000 is extremely likely (though not necessarily, at 24000 block 20-22 will become too “obvious” and new variables may change the equation)
- I give a high probability to a small local overshoot
- I fully admit the possibility of going above 30K in order to slightly disturb the ranks of experts :)
Peace, profit and green PnL to everyone
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rDsAq4iy/
