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Positive news about the IOTA ecosystem has investors excited about the token's future potential, which has caused IOTA's ($IOTA) price to soar. Over the past seven days, our desk has seen a spike in IOTA trading volume on our Convert Portal.
The sudden surge in the price of the token is the result of IOTA establishing a new $100 million company located in Abu Dhabi to accelerate the Middle East's adoption of its distributed ledger technology (DLT). With more than $100 million in IOTA tokens as seed capital, the IOTA Ecosystem DLT Foundation is the first blockchain-focused organization in the area to receive regulatory approval. Its main objectives will be onboarding organizations to operate on-chain and converting real-world assets into digital tokens.
This week, the market capitalization of the Bitcoin Ordinals token ORDI ($ORDI) surpassed $1 billion, having increased by more than 650% in the past thirty days. The buzz around BSC-20 and Ordinals in the cryptocurrency world was what caused the spike. But after a Bitcoin Core developer said that Inscription was exploiting a vulnerability in Bitcoin Core and suggested a fix that would eliminate Ordinals and BRC-20, the ORDI price saw a 30%+ retreat. While sparking discussion within the Bitcoin community, ORDI recovered and reached a new all-time high of $70 on Wednesday.
Overall Market
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202312/e148663d884fed3ed0155b6f91390f34.png)
The above chart shows the BTC price from 2022 to 2023.
As was discussed in the last post, there was no further resistance level for the BTC price until $45,000 once it broke the upper blue line.
As projected by our desk, the price of BTC successfully crossed above the upper blue trend line and soared toward $45,000 in just 4 days. In the coming days, our desk predicts that the price of bitcoin could move sideways as it approaches the resistance level of $45,000.
Our desk has observed a strong demand for Bitcoin over the past week, given the high likelihood that the SEC will approve a Bitcoin spot ETF in the first quarter of 2024.
In addition, the demand for tokens featuring BRC-20 and Ordinals increased due to their recent surge in popularity. The price of Bitcoin then continued to rise as a result of the increasing usage of BRC-20 tokens.
Options Market
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202312/aacb6d6aad629246e3657df71227e483.png)
The above chart is the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC options
The above chart illustrates a vertical shift in the implied volatility of Bitcoin options with a 7-day expiry, corresponding with the price of BTC starting to rise on December 1. The implied volatility increased from roughly 40% to over 50% as the price of bitcoin moved in only one direction in the past few days.
Holding all other factors the same, higher implied volatility corresponds to a higher option premium. This means that an options trader can profit from the implied volatility move by holding a straddle strategy (longing both calls and puts).
As shown in the chart, the implied volatility of the near-term options has dropped below 50%. It indicates that options traders are selling options to capture the high volatility premium. It also suggests that the price of Bitcoin may move sideways in the near future.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202312/ff2c39f3287a067bd8a86a1c78eca85a.png)
The above table shows the 25-delta skewness of BTC and ETH options.
In the 7-day expiry options for both BTC and ETH, the 25-delta skewness is close to 0. One of the reasons could be that options traders are actively selling options and the premium difference between calls and puts is narrowing.
Additionally, the above table is also a proxy to measure market sentiment. With a close-to-0 skewness for short-tenor options, it signals that BTC and ETH might have less likelihood to continue the rise in that period.
Macro at a glance
Last Wednesday (2023-11-29)
The German CPI for November was 3.2%, down from last month's 3.8% and below the predicted 3.5%. The ECB's perspective was reinforced by the better-than-expected CPI figure, which also lessened the ECB's pressure to raise interest rates.
After growing by 2.1% in the previous quarter, the US GDP grew by 5.2% in the third quarter, exceeding the forecast growth of 4.9%. The US economy is robust and expected to grow strongly after the Fed paused the rate hike, as indicated by the robust growth of the US GDP. The strong economy further supports the idea that the Fed should keep the current interest rate in place rather than raise it.
November's China Manufacturing PMI was 49.4, which was marginally less than 49.5 last month. Chinese manufacturing activity is still in a contractionary phase, according to the manufacturing PMI for November, despite the country having implemented several market-stimulating policies. To spur economic growth in China, the Chinese government must regain market confidence in the manufacturing sector. The market anticipates further stimulus from the Chinese government.
Last Thursday (2023-11-30)
November's Eurozone CPI was 2.4%, down from 2.9% the previous month and less than the 2.7% predicted. The CPI reading reveals a similar outcome to the German CPI reading that we previously discussed. It increases the possibility of an earlier pivot from the ECB as the likelihood of additional rate hikes from the bank declines.
October's US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was 3.0%, down from 3.4% the previous month. The core PCE price index fell from 3.7% in September to 3.5% in October. This index is closely watched by the Federal Reserve as a proxy for the inflation rate. The PCE price index is trending downward, indicating a low likelihood of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December.
Last Friday (2023-12-01)
Canada, the US's northern neighbour, reported a 5.8% unemployment rate in November, which was marginally higher than the 5.7% rate from October.
November's US ISM Manufacturing PMI was 46.7, below the predicted 47.6. According to the data, the US manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for the past 12 months.
On Monday (2023-12-04)
In line with expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate at 4.35% during its final monetary policy meeting in 2023. Despite the positive economic data, RBA Governor Michele Bullock left the door open for additional tightening of monetary policy in the press.
On Tuesday (2023-12-05)
US JOLTs job openings were 8.733 million in October, down from 9.350 million the previous month. The fact that there are the fewest JOLTs job openings in the last 2.5 years indicates that the US labor market is becoming more balanced. With the US labor market softening and inflation slowing, the market expects the Federal Reserve to pivot sooner in 2024.
On Wednesday (2023-12-06)
November's US ADP nonfarm employment change was 103k, which was less than the predicted 130k. The market's optimism for rate cuts was strengthened by the slowing job market.
As expected by the market, the Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 5.00%. The Bank of Canada's policy statement emphasizes the easing market demand and cooling inflation. The BoC has decided to keep its interest rate at its current level for the third time in a row.
In the coming week, we have
US unemployment rate in November this Friday
US CPI reading next Tuesday
The FOMC December meeting next Wednesday
Convert Portal Volume Change![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202312/25cd0327e29f99ec03d28abeb0221429.png)
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.
In the past seven days, our desk has noticed a significant volume change in the above zones.
On Convert, the most notable volume change is the Meme zone. ORDI and PEPE are the main contributors to the spike in trading volume in this zone. Over the last seven days, both tokens have performed well, gaining 225.5% and 46.1%, respectively. The volume changes for ORDI and PEPE are +426.70% and +171.76%, respectively.
The high demand for HOOK was the primary reason for the Launchpad zone volume's 96.96% increase last week. The volume change for HOOK is +230.10%.
Filecoin ($FIL) and Arweave ($AR) are the two largest contributors to the 60.74% volume growth in Storage zone. The volume changes for FIL and AR are +73.55% and +14.64%, respectively.
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To access manual price quotations, you may visit our Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/spot), where you can RFQ (request-for-quote) and trade directly with our OTC trading team via a live chat.
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For any other inquiries on OTC trading, please reach out to us via our email at trading@binance.com for our trading desk to get in touch with you and get started.
OTC trades may also be automatically quoted on Binance Convert and via API, offering users a quick and simple way to execute trades across 60,000+ pairs with one simple click. Binance Convert supports over 350 tokens listed on the exchange including fiat pairs. Begin trading from as little as 1 USD. To start, simply navigate to the Binance Convert & Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert), select the coins you wish to trade, preview and confirm the quote with settlement reflecting almost instantly in your wallet balance. For details and access to Binance Convert OTC API, please refer to our Convert Endpoints (https://binance-docs.github.io/apidocs/spot/en/#convert-endpoints) and reach out to us at trading@binance.com if you have any questions or require assistance.
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