Is the total population of the world only 21 million?
海绵宝宝社区
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The price of pancakes is so high that it is a crime of murder.
It's very simple. How many families in China can take out 100,000 US dollars in RMB cash? How many families in the United States can take out 100,000 US dollars in cash?
I asked chatgpt In China, the proportion of families that can take out about 100,000 US dollars (about 700,000 RMB) in cash at one time is very small, about less than 5%. Due to factors such as mortgages and rising living costs, many families face great pressure in saving.
In the United States, about 20% of families can use 100,000 US dollars in cash or equivalent assets, mainly due to higher income and mature savings habits.
According to the basic theory of economics, one person's income is another person's expenditure. Money does not come out of thin air. Such a high market value and such a high price must be paid by a large number of ordinary people.
In other words, a pancake can drain a middle-class family. How many people come to this market with money, and how much money do you withdraw? The money that goes into your bank after leaving the table is your money, and the money on the table is just chips.
Some people always talk about inflation. 2% inflation a year will not make you bankrupt, but buying gold at a high price will.
Gold is a currency by nature. Some people use public opinion to make you believe that it is a currency, but other countries do not buy it. The German government cashed out directly at a high price. Except for some small countries whose GDP cannot catch up with a small county in China, which decent central bank would buy it at any cost?
If you don't understand, don't speak. The United States officially only holds 1% of Bitcoin, and even including the undisclosed amount, it won't exceed 5%. Even if Bitcoin rises to $1 million each, with 1 million per piece × 21 million pieces, the total market value would only be $20 trillion. Even if the U.S. really owns 5% of Bitcoin, the holding market value would only be around $2 trillion, which is less than the $2 trillion of U.S. Treasury bond issuance in a year. Relying on Bitcoin to rise to $1 million each cannot even pay off a little of the U.S. national debt.
Power rate assets, highly rigid protocols, high cyclicality, high certainty, first-class communist assets
看不懂的sol
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Many brothers asked me why BTC will rise and at what price to buy the bottom. To be honest, such questions are essentially trapped in the speculative mindset. In the currency circle, the most certain thing is the uncertainty of the market. To make money is to find profit opportunities with a higher probability in an uncertain market. The market cycle seems chaotic, but if you look at it over a long period of time, the rules are still very obvious
1. Since the birth of Bitcoin, BTC has experienced four halving events, and the market has ushered in a new round of bull market after each halving. According to the model and historical data, Bitcoin's three super bull markets all occurred after the halving, and most of the price highs were also concentrated in the orange period of the model. Of course, this round is no exception.
2. The halving of Bitcoin in 2024 has been completed. The market is currently in the early stage of the bull market. It is expected that 2025 will be the year when Bitcoin performs the best, and it is expected to break through the historical high again (around 180K)
3. Bitcoin must also go through the bull and bear cycle, and every bull market will inevitably usher in a price correction period. According to historical and model calculations, the bottom of this round of Bitcoin prices may appear around 2026.
History will not repeat the details of the past, but it will repeat similar processes. The currency market always rises and falls, which is very similar, but how high it rises and how deep it falls are different each time. This is because of the role of randomness. Therefore, the general trend of the cycle, that is, the general direction, can be predicted, but the specific trend, that is, the rise and fall range, cannot be predicted.
The rich hold core assets, the poor hold counterfeit assets, and society is divided into layers.
炒币发财的美少女
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An interesting phenomenon is that more than 90% of stock investors in the A-shares market have not bought Moutai, and similarly, over 90% of people in the cryptocurrency space have not bought Bitcoin. This data is quite interesting, isn’t it? We all know that there is Moutai in the A-shares market and Bitcoin in the crypto world. Among China's 200 million stock investors, only 150,000 hold Kweichow Moutai. That means only 0.07% of people hold Kweichow Moutai, while 99.93% of stock investors have not bought Kweichow Moutai, but instead bought imitation stocks. Looking at Bitcoin, we can find data on the Bitcoin explorer, where there are over 38 million addresses holding Bitcoin. However, there are only over 800,000 addresses holding more than 1 Bitcoin. This ratio accounts for about 2% of all holding addresses, which means that over 90% of people in the cryptocurrency space have not been able to buy Bitcoin, but have chosen to hold altcoins. Moutai and Bitcoin are similar in that for over a decade, they have never let down any of their holders. So why do most people still not buy them? I think there are a few reasons: the first is feeling it’s too late, the second is feeling it’s too expensive, the third is thinking that Bitcoin has no room for price increase in the future, the fourth is believing that making money is too easy, and the fifth is psychological bias. Everyone in the crypto space already knows about this; Bitcoin is recognized as a valuable currency, which is a consensus shared by everyone in the crypto community. When everyone believes something is good, others must have bought it too, so if I buy it, I surely won’t make money. Regarding feeling it’s too late, early and late are actually relative concepts; there’s no absolute early or late. As long as the investment target is valuable and can grow long-term, it’s somewhat about early or late. Because in our crypto space, such investment targets are very scarce. Regarding feeling it’s too expensive, facts prove that if we look at it from a probability perspective, as long as you don’t buy Bitcoin and instead invest in other coins, compared to Bitcoin, you already have a 90% chance of losing money. You know the saying, 'You get what you pay for,' good things aren’t cheap. This is something we all understand. Good investment targets are very scarce, and this scarcity is not only present in the crypto space; if you look at the entire global investment market, assets worth holding long-term are also very scarce. But once you discover this, don’t easily get off the train. Of course, in the meantime, you can sell some coins and improve your life appropriately.
Don't look up, try to look down, how low can the bottom reach in 20262027? As long as it doesn't fall further, the market's eternal ability to fluctuate will force prices to rise.
CryptoChan
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In 2013, the peak value of this indicator was 5.6 In 2017, the peak value of this indicator was 6.8 In 2021, the peak value of this indicator was 6.2 Currently, this indicator is 4.8
The black line in the chart represents BTC price, while the red bars represent: (On-chain BTC realized profit 365-day MA - On-chain BTC realized loss 365-day MA) / On-chain BTC realized loss 365-day MA
Only selling, not buying has appeared in history. The U.S. legislation stipulates that residents cannot privately store or buy gold, otherwise it is illegal. The government reserves gold, and it is the only legal buyer; individuals are allowed to sell but not to buy. Moreover, the selling price is set by the government at a uniform rate of 35 dollars per ounce, which feels like being robbed by bandits. Today, the price of gold has reached 2,650 dollars per ounce. Furthermore, U.S. laws have long permitted citizens to freely own gold. The wealth of those who bought gold at 35 dollars back then was robbed. What happened with gold will also happen with Bitcoin.
加密城市 Crypto City
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Japan’s most quasi-futuristic person? Rei Kokubu: Bitcoin will soar to this point, and it will only be sold but not bought in the future
A "future man" who claims to be from 2058 speaks out again
Kokubu Rei, who is called "Japan's most promising future person" by netizens, has previously predicted that Japan will win 27 gold medals at the Tokyo Olympics, the Nikkei Index will plummet in March 2020, and Shinzo Abe will resign in September 2020. became famous due to the incident. Because these predictions seemed to match reality, supporters believed her words and believed she held secrets that transcended time and space.
Kokubu Rei claimed to be born in 2034, studied architecture at the Faculty of Engineering at Tokyo National University, and arrived in the society at that time in December 2019 through a time and space transmission device. Although there is no scientific evidence for the possibility of time travel, her series of predictions on X have made her a hot topic on social media.
From this round, Bitcoin belongs to Bitcoin and altcoins belong to altcoins. They will no longer share the Bitcoin cycle. In the future, Bitcoin will continue to follow the halving cycle. However, all altcoins will follow a four-year cycle with a 180-degree phase difference. That is, the 2026-2027 Bitcoin bear market low tide window will become the altcoin bull market high tide window.
CryptoChan
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[BTC core chain data update]
The proportion of long-term Bitcoin holders (excluding those holding more than 7 years) on the Bitcoin chain may fall between 57% and 62% at the peak of this round of bull market, and is currently 69.2% (Figure 2 is an observation of the three Bitcoin halving days in the past decade)
As time goes by, the approximate height of this round of bull market peak is becoming clearer and clearer🧘
Facing the loess with your face and turning your back to the sky, generations will never change. After being a slave to the Federal Reserve for too long, one might forget how to be a person. Instead, one consciously maintains the hegemony of the dollar and opposes Bitcoin.
机灵的杰尼君
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Two of the world's three major powers are supporting BTC.
Meitu's Boss Cai cleared out the BTC and ETH accumulated from the previous cycle in November and December of 2021.
In the last round, he bought 31,000 E and 940 B, with costs of E1629 and B52610, costing 1E.
In the spot bear market, it dropped to a low of 880 and 15600. E was halved at its lowest, and B remained at less than 30%, valued at 31000×880+940×15600=0.42E, and any leverage even by a factor of two would have resulted in a liquidation. For more than half of these four years, the prices were underwater.
This time, he sold them at 1E and 0.8E, with an average selling price of E3225 and B8W5. He gained about double on E and around half on B.
The total profit was 7963W, with a dividend payout of 0.109 HKD per share.
For the next small step, Bitcoin going to 120,000 and Ethereum going to 2,500 is quite surprising, but in fact, it is very realistic.
HN trader
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1. In the last two cycles, the total market value of cryptocurrencies broke through the historical high in the 8th month after the halving, and the altcoins ran wild. The total market value of this round is already the 8th month and the cycle corresponds to January 25. 2. In the next six months, BTC will rise to 150,000-200,000 US dollars at most, ETH will rise to 12,000-15,000 US dollars, and the altcoins will generally rise 5-10 times, welcoming the bubble era 3. ETH officially ushered in a strong return. ETH will be much better than BTC. The leading altcoins will rise to your unbelievable #btc
The supply and demand relationship of specific varieties is different from before.
HN trader
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1. In the last two cycles, the total market value of cryptocurrencies broke through the historical high in the 8th month after the halving, and the altcoins ran wild. The total market value of this round is already the 8th month and the cycle corresponds to January 25. 2. In the next six months, BTC will rise to 150,000-200,000 US dollars at most, ETH will rise to 12,000-15,000 US dollars, and the altcoins will generally rise 5-10 times, welcoming the bubble era 3. ETH officially ushered in a strong return. ETH will be much better than BTC. The leading altcoins will rise to your unbelievable #btc
In fact, the marathon will become a cold climate agricultural company that continuously accumulates Bitcoin in the future. Stock prices will experience a rise in revaluation.
CoinVoice
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CoinVoice has recently learned that, according to CryptoSlate, the American cryptocurrency mining company Mara Holdings (formerly Marathon Digital) announced that it has utilized the waste heat generated from Bitcoin mining to provide heating for 80,000 households in the SataKunta region of Finland. [Original link]
$BTC Some say 98000 is the bottom! I just want to say don't be fooled! Even the Federal Reserve doesn't believe it! Moreover, 98000 US dollars is equivalent to over 700,000 each! In reality, it can't even compare to one gram of gold! Additionally, the total supply is 21 million coins! Remember, it's 21 million coins, not 2,100 coins! Where does the claim of scarcity come from? Those who say it's scarce are just ready to harvest you like wheat! #美联储放鹰
In the future, retail investors will enter the market through large institutional ETFs. Large ETFs only have Bitcoin and Ethereum. Unless hybrid ETFs like 50, 100, and 500 are created, altcoins will have no ETF buyers.
优家纯牛奶-HTAA690
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Have you listened to it 100 times? The era of copycat coins in the crypto market is over, BTC players have changed, ETFs have entered the market, so in the future, there will only be BTC, no other crypto assets or similar talk;
Ridiculous;
Return to common sense, common sense, still damn common sense;
Seeing players change is good, being bullish on BTC is right;
But being bearish on the altcoin season is 100% lacking in common sense;
In the long run, Bitcoin spot ETFs will guide hundreds of millions of people into the crypto market, but how could it be that these people only buy Bitcoin and completely avoid investing in any other assets? This has never happened in any asset class market, so why would it happen in the crypto market?
This kind of rhetoric is simply lacking in common sense;
What consensus exists only in BTC, that only BTC goes up while other assets must fend for themselves, is purely a violation of common sense + a denial of human nature;
Asset rotation is the most widespread phenomenon in behavioral economics; since the professional speculation market of stocks has existed, this has been the most conventional and reasonable model guided by professional players and market makers;
The emergence of positive news + the parabolic rise in asset prices will inevitably lead to some funds immediately selling to realize profits, seeking other similar companies, guessing who the next target is, and reinvesting the profits into these companies;
This is the basic logic of high beta; if the crypto market only has BTC, then the US stock market wouldn’t need IWM, and there would be no GME or AMC;
Consensus only exists in BTC… blablabla… a bunch of arguments and analyses, but unfortunately, the market is irrational, the market is full of speculation and expectations;
After a token rises, funds will quickly flow into similar tokens, hoping to catch the next wave of increases; this is the natural behavioral law of the market, present in both ancient traditional speculative markets and emerging crypto speculative markets;
This is common sense; all professional speculative market cycles are controlled and characterized by this simple logic;
It is this kind of rule that leads to the so-called altcoin season; behind it is human nature. No matter how powerful your ETF is, how can it stop human nature from chasing up and selling down?
In one sentence: The accelerated influx of government, enterprises, and institutional investors into BTC will bring more capital overflow and will lead to a clearer altcoin season;
Hold your PEPE tight, hold your ETH high beta tight;
Seeing clearly this world and oneself is a fundamental skill and a required course for a person. In life, do not seek outward. Otherwise, it will ultimately be a reversal of dreams.
释戒定师父买囤比特币
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Bullish
There is one thing in common between spiritual practice and investment - inaction.
People are active, always unable to control their hands, always want to trade, and feel uncomfortable if they don't trade for a day or make money for a day, their hands itch, and their hearts feel like ants crawling. This is human nature, and everyone is inevitable, but if you want to make money, you must go against human nature, that is, control your hands and don't over-trade, because trading itself has costs, including handling fees, slippage, and impermanent losses. The Buddhist Zen is also wrong as soon as you do it, and as soon as you say it.
But we always want to do something, otherwise we will feel uncomfortable, so what should we do? We should do the preaching of Bitcoin. In other words, use preaching instead of trading, because the trail is a positive return expectation, while trading is a negative return expectation, so using preaching instead of trading can make us get a positive mathematical expected return.
So my trading method is very simple. The passive level is to constantly buy and hoard Bitcoin, and the active level is to preach Bitcoin to investors and promote the correct Bitcoin investment method, so that more people can participate and achieve wealth freedom through Bitcoin investment.
Humans, as a species, are unable to see the world clearly, let alone understand themselves. This species has desires and ambitions, but in the face of the vastness of the universe, the unified answer to human desires and ambitions is 'unattainable'.
释戒定师父买囤比特币
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Bullish
There is one thing in common between spiritual practice and investment - inaction.
People are active, always unable to control their hands, always want to trade, and feel uncomfortable if they don't trade for a day or make money for a day, their hands itch, and their hearts feel like ants crawling. This is human nature, and everyone is inevitable, but if you want to make money, you must go against human nature, that is, control your hands and don't over-trade, because trading itself has costs, including handling fees, slippage, and impermanent losses. The Buddhist Zen is also wrong as soon as you do it, and as soon as you say it.
But we always want to do something, otherwise we will feel uncomfortable, so what should we do? We should do the preaching of Bitcoin. In other words, use preaching instead of trading, because the trail is a positive return expectation, while trading is a negative return expectation, so using preaching instead of trading can make us get a positive mathematical expected return.
So my trading method is very simple. The passive level is to constantly buy and hoard Bitcoin, and the active level is to preach Bitcoin to investors and promote the correct Bitcoin investment method, so that more people can participate and achieve wealth freedom through Bitcoin investment.
Only when a person clearly sees and sincerely agrees that they are a pure fool can they escape the fate of becoming a pure fool. This requires both knowledge and non-action.
释戒定师父买囤比特币
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Bullish
There is one thing in common between spiritual practice and investment - inaction.
People are active, always unable to control their hands, always want to trade, and feel uncomfortable if they don't trade for a day or make money for a day, their hands itch, and their hearts feel like ants crawling. This is human nature, and everyone is inevitable, but if you want to make money, you must go against human nature, that is, control your hands and don't over-trade, because trading itself has costs, including handling fees, slippage, and impermanent losses. The Buddhist Zen is also wrong as soon as you do it, and as soon as you say it.
But we always want to do something, otherwise we will feel uncomfortable, so what should we do? We should do the preaching of Bitcoin. In other words, use preaching instead of trading, because the trail is a positive return expectation, while trading is a negative return expectation, so using preaching instead of trading can make us get a positive mathematical expected return.
So my trading method is very simple. The passive level is to constantly buy and hoard Bitcoin, and the active level is to preach Bitcoin to investors and promote the correct Bitcoin investment method, so that more people can participate and achieve wealth freedom through Bitcoin investment.
Deutsche Bank predicts yen could fall to 157 against the dollar
According to Jinshi Data, Deutsche Bank said that if the Federal Reserve makes hawkish remarks and the Bank of Japan keeps interest rates unchanged this week, the yen may fall to 157 against the US dollar.
Tim Baker, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, noted that accelerating inflation but slow central bank action could push USD/JPY higher. However, the Bank of Japan has the ability to raise interest rates unexpectedly this week, which would boost the yen at least initially.
It is recommended that all patrons set the units here to BTC like a monk, meaning we should measure all our wealth in the crypto world using BTC. We should use a Bitcoin standard to assess all wealth and value, both within and outside the crypto world, including virtual currencies and real-world assets, all of it.
We should also cultivate an awareness of Satoshis, which means that the smallest unit of Bitcoin is one hundred millionth of a Bitcoin, called a Satoshi, named in honor of the great Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto. The monk believes that in the future, one Satoshi will be equivalent to one US dollar.
Just need to sell once in 2014, buy once in 2016 and 2017. Then sell once in 2018 and 2019. Then buy once in 2020 and 2021. Then sell once in 2022 and 2023, then sell once in 2024 and 2025. Then buy once in 2026 and 2027. Then sell once in 2028 and 2029.
释戒定师父买囤比特币
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Bullish
A little tip: Bitcoin Standardism
It is recommended that all patrons set the units here to BTC like a monk, meaning we should measure all our wealth in the crypto world using BTC. We should use a Bitcoin standard to assess all wealth and value, both within and outside the crypto world, including virtual currencies and real-world assets, all of it.
We should also cultivate an awareness of Satoshis, which means that the smallest unit of Bitcoin is one hundred millionth of a Bitcoin, called a Satoshi, named in honor of the great Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto. The monk believes that in the future, one Satoshi will be equivalent to one US dollar.