The non-farm data on Monday was bad for the financial market, and the market also plunged downward. Of course, it was just a plunge.
But the bad news plus the plunge were enough to panic retail investors.
When retail investors in the market were completely convinced that there would be a big drop next, yesterday's CPI met expectations, but it did not fall, but rose instead.
This is the financial market. The financial market is like a battlefield, full of various strategies and tactics.
If you just wander around various social groups all day to listen to news, check the information in various apps to listen to news, you will be suppressed by the main strategies and tactics.
Just like the non-farm data on Monday, many people think that this is bad news, which will affect the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts, and even lead to interest rate hikes instead of interest rate cuts.
But what is the basis for this conclusion? Just because the non-farm data is bad, the number of employed people has increased, and the market has fallen at the same time?
Why did I remind in the article a few days ago that although the non-farm data showed bad news, it did not affect the general direction?
Because this is the "law", everything has a law.
Non-agricultural data is just a small data on the road of interest rate hikes and cuts. This is a "disguised" form.
We must first look at the "essence". The essence is that interest rate cuts have just begun. Since interest rate cuts have just begun, they will not stop if the interest rate cut target is not reached.
In the process of interest rate cuts, just like the market, the rise will not continue to rise, there will be a correction, and interest rate cuts will not continue to fall. There may be a pause in the middle, but it does not affect the general direction.
In addition, in the process of interest rate cuts, various news will appear to guide market sentiment and make people feel that there will be no interest rate cuts, just like the non-agricultural data a few days ago.
However, these data do not affect the trend. Just like the market, once it is in a bull market, there will be news that triggers a correction during the rise, but it does not mean that the bull market is over, and it does not mean that it will continue to fall.
At present, the market sentiment is low and the price is falling. You can open the daily level of the exchange and see that the trading volume and volume of all currencies in the market have all fallen sharply, and the liquidity is very poor. It seems that the main force does not protect the market at all, and allows retail investors to buy and sell freely, which will lead to the current situation. According to the past situation, there are only two possible situations: ① This is a relatively bad plan. The market has not increased in volume for the time being and has been falling. If there is a sudden downward needle or a large-volume drop in the end, it will be quickly recovered, indicating that funds have intervened to activate the market and start a rebound in the future. ② It is that the emotional market is suppressed to the extreme. Severe short squeeze, this period of negative decline forces spot players to cut their losses without seeing hope. In the future, they will directly reactivate the market with a large-volume positive line and start a rebound. In general, it is best to be patient and wait. This kind of market operation is equivalent to losing money. It will be much better to wait for the market to activate or reverse before intervening, otherwise it is easy to get into trouble. Don't do contracts! $BNB #还有山寨季?
This week, the CPI data is about to be released, and this is the last major test before the old man's regime transition. According to his style, the data is likely to look good, adding luster to his achievements. In this case, the impact of the CPI data on the market is expected to be minimal. However, if the data is unfavorable, then all previous analyses could be in vain. Speaking of the wise king, once he takes office on the 20th, there will definitely be a lot going on; it's hard to say whether the crypto market can immediately find reassurance. If the good news doesn't meet expectations, market turmoil is inevitable, and the risk of a correction will increase. However, before the wise king arrives, the possibility of a significant market drop is low. But if he doesn't give the crypto market a strong start, those who are bullish at high positions may panic, increasing the likelihood of market adjustments in late January. In summary, in these two weeks, we need to closely monitor the CPI data and the wise king's attitude towards crypto!
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade: Towards a More Efficient and Greener Future
In the field of cryptocurrency, Ethereum is undoubtedly an entity that cannot be ignored. As a leading platform for decentralized applications (dapps) and smart contracts, Ethereum has been pushing the boundaries of blockchain technology. The upcoming Pectra upgrade is seen as another significant milestone in Ethereum's development journey. This upgrade not only focuses on multiple technical improvements and optimizations but will also have a profound impact on the Ethereum ecosystem. The core of the Pectra upgrade lies in a series of technical improvements and optimizations aimed at enhancing Ethereum's scalability, security, stability, and user experience. These improvements encompass multiple Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), each carrying the Ethereum team's beautiful vision for the future.
Next week's CPI will allow the market to further confirm whether the previous CPI was just a short-term fluctuation or there is a real trend of sustained rebound. If it is confirmed to be a short-term fluctuation, the market may be relieved. If it is confirmed to be a sustained rebound, then the market may speculate on future interest rate hike expectations. If there is a clear opportunity next, it may depend on the situation after CPI:
(1) Will the continued surge in US debt trigger the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department to stabilize the market;
(2) Whether the implementation of the policy sequence after Trump takes office can reverse the market's overly pessimistic expectations;
(3) Whether liquidity can be boosted in the window period after the debt ceiling is reached.
This weekend, many altcoins started to rebound again; some altcoins began to rally in advance. Currently, the overall trend of altcoins is still not unified, but they are gradually completing bottom repairs. It is currently early January. In my personal opinion, there will be another fluctuation, and then from mid to late January to the end of January, a second wave of main upward momentum will begin. Some later altcoins may reach early February.
As for the extent of the bearish trend before the next upward wave, it will depend on the strength of each altcoin and the extent of the BTC fluctuation and correction. Weaker altcoins may experience a harsher drop back to previous lows, while stronger altcoins may only experience a relatively deep correction.
Currently, many altcoins are still in the bottom range. For spot trading, there has been sufficient time since December 20 for everyone to average down and buy the dip. Therefore, if a correction occurs again in the near future, it may be the last good entry opportunity.
RSS3 announced that it is building the ultimate A-data framework to support functional A-agent innovation in the crypto space, and is delving into DeSci with on-chain applications to advance research and tools, accelerate collaboration, and stimulate innovation. BIO, which was launched today, is this sector, and its popularity is unprecedented. RSS3 is also currently developing towards decentralized science. The current price is relatively low, and it is expected to usher in an explosion in the future. Looking forward to the performance of RSS3!
Currently, the AI concept is very popular, and there are not many altcoins in the secondary market that can rise. After some research, it seems that $AR can be focused on, with specific reasons as follows: 1. Technical limitations of the Sol chain: Due to the technical limitations of the Sol chain, the current compression technology can only be applied to compress NFT and other image data to reduce on-chain costs, and cannot effectively solve the problem of on-chain full AI data. 2. Advantages of AR's AO chain: Currently, the only solution that seems to support the on-chain full AI data is AR's AO chain. The AO chain plans to launch its mainnet in February, supporting storage of up to tens of GB of data. 3. Advantages compared to the Sol chain: Compared to chains like Sol, AR's AO chain shows greater advantages in processing large-scale AI data and can support more complex application scenarios.
In the next phase of the cryptocurrency market, VC tokens will struggle to gain momentum, and MEME tokens will lose interest. The concentration of wealth in the first quarter of 2025: AI AGENT. 1. The AI AGENT ecosystem is just getting started. The AI AGENT sector has only just begun, with various VCs, major players, and developers still entering the market. Binance will launch AGENT-type tokens (this is inevitable, but the timing is uncertain). 2. Those who haven't joined yet must focus on major projects and leaders. If you still haven't jumped into any AGENT projects, you can only focus on major projects and leaders. The leading assets are VIRTUAL and AI16Z, which have strong capabilities and a large ecosystem, making it difficult to surpass them! The second leaders are GAME and ELIZA. 3. There's no need to worry about new projects continuously replacing old projects in the AI AGENT sector. The network effects of VIRTUAL and AI16Z will ensure that the strong get stronger, and many high-quality projects will continuously emerge. Hundredfold tokens will appear in these two sectors, and soon Binance, COINBASE, and UPBIT will launch multiple top-tier projects, with top-tier projects exceeding 10 billion in value being a certainty. 4. AI AGENT offers hundredfold opportunities. Recently, small positions in tokens like VADER, VAPOR, and LAUNCH have seen several times their value or doubled in an extremely short time.
Several important predictions for this wave of altcoin season: 1. The performance of altcoin season may exceed more than 90% of the market. 2. The total market capitalization of altcoins may grow by 3 to 5 times. 3. The market capitalization share of Bitcoin is expected to fall below 40%. 4. It is important to remember that the ultimate goal of major investors is to drive the price up and sell for profit. Do not be disturbed by market noise, and do not easily exit at the last moment. The upcoming phase will be a period of rapid increase.
Musk's actions on platform X have once again caused a huge shock in the cryptocurrency world!
On December 31, 2024, local time, the world's richest person and Tesla CEO Musk changed his nickname on his social platform X to "Kekius Maximus". As a result, a meme coin named after Musk's new nickname, Kekius Maximus, skyrocketed. According to CoinGecko data, before Musk changed his nickname, the price of Kekius Maximus was around $0.0112. After the nickname change, the price of Kekius Maximus soared, increasing over nine times on the same day, December 31, 2024. On January 1, 2025, the price of Kekius Maximus continued to rise, peaking at $0.40. Currently, the price of Kekius Maximus is fluctuating around $0.3495, with a total market capitalization exceeding $330 million, an increase of over 3000% compared to before Musk updated his nickname. However, it is important to note that meme coin prices are highly volatile and carry significant risks; investors should proceed with caution.
The first round of Bitcoin's rise has been completed, and the market is entering the second stage - a correction or sideways consolidation period. At this time, funds began to flow to Ethereum and various altcoins, pushing them into a stage of general rise and sector rotation. This trend has already begun to emerge. In this process, we need to pay attention to the performance of each market correction, identify which currencies show strong rebound signals, which currencies show stability in the sideways consolidation stage, and even which currencies may surpass Ethereum's performance. These strong currencies often rebound first after the market sentiment recovers and usher in a wave of gains. For investors, now is the time to lay out those currencies that are optimistic and have rebound potential. For those currencies that have slow growth and have not yet started (such as pnut, act, neiro, etc.), although they may need more time to stabilize their trend, once they start, their potential for growth will not be ignored. In short, when facing market fluctuations, we need to remain calm, analyze market trends, and patiently wait for clear signals to appear. Remember, there is limited room for decline, but unlimited potential for rise. In the long run of investment, a stable strategy and patience are often more important than short-term fluctuations.
The recent volatility in Bitcoin prices has caused market observers to discuss future trends, and this downturn has also affected the trend of other major cryptocurrencies.
What does Matrixport expect from Bitcoin?
Matrixport, a well-known research institution in the cryptocurrency field, predicts that Bitcoin may rebound in the coming year. They mentioned in the recent statement of the X platform that Bitcoin has seen considerable growth in the past few months before entering a stable period.
Are experts optimistic about the future of the market?
Some analysts are cautious about the current decline, which may mean that cryptocurrencies may have a good development in the long run. For example, Peter Brandt said that Bitcoin may soar to $108,000 again in the future.
Matrixport emphasizes the positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin based on rising interest and adoption. The market situation is seen as a natural cycle, which may recover in the new year. The recent volatility may provide participants with an opportunity to re-evaluate trading strategies. The development of Bitcoin pricing is crucial to market dynamics. The growth of futures trading volume shows a general optimism. As 2025 approaches, people believe that market activity will resume, which may make Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies full of vitality.
With 2025 approaching, the first quarter may welcome a significant leap, and 3 potential coins are expected to explode by 20-50 times
Last night’s market fluctuations were a real roller coaster! The recent movements of Bitcoin have been a bit perplexing, so let me clarify. Basically, the trend is still hovering around the range I mentioned yesterday, with prices slowly climbing. First, Bitcoin may rise again, but it needs an influx of funds and good news to push it further up. Additionally, the performance of US stocks is also worth paying attention to; if US stocks experience volatility, Bitcoin may also follow suit and could see significant fluctuations. If you have some spare money, consider adding to your position when the price of Bitcoin drops below $92,000, but also be prepared to have enough funds left for averaging down if the price falls to $80,000. The current decline does not mean there won't be a rebound; funds and positive news are still on the way, so it is not advisable to go fully short, in order to avoid missing future upward opportunities.
Recently, two significant signals in the cryptocurrency space cannot be ignored:
1. Ethereum spot ETFs have maintained net inflows for five consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of $349 million last week, while Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $388 million last week. Ethereum is beginning to demonstrate a stronger ability to attract capital than Bitcoin. 2. During the correction phase of Bitcoin (in the range of 99000—90000), Ethereum has shown a stronger performance compared to Bitcoin, forming a clear upward trend. The strengthening of ETH indicates that the cryptocurrency space is entering the preliminary stage of altcoin season.
From August to September, everyone was speculating on inscriptions, and as a result, most who chased high on ORDI and SATS got trapped at the peak. From October to November, it was the phase of speculating on meme coins, such as ACT, PNUT, and BAN, with those chasing high continuing to get trapped. From December to January, everyone started speculating in the AI direction, like AGENT, and those who chased high got trapped again. From January to March 2025, AIXBT predicts that speculation will begin on the big cake ecosystem. In fact, very few people had positioned themselves early; most entered by chasing high. The best strategy is to diversify investments, allocating some to ETH staking, L2, AI direction, and the big cake ecosystem. After all, a bull market cannot focus on just one track. Recently, the coins launched on BITGET have been quite good, which may also represent the direction of capital allocation, so it's worth paying more attention to.
Opportunities and Potential: Changes in the Market Environment: With the increasing popularity and deepening application of blockchain technology, the cryptocurrency market is expected to experience unprecedented maturity in the coming years. Although there is still uncertainty regarding policy regulation, it is gradually improving, which may mean a more standardized and stable development environment for SHIB. Moreover, institutional investors are flooding into the cryptocurrency market, and they tend to pay more attention to and favor promising projects. If SHIB can seize this opportunity, showcase its advantages and value, it might attract more funding and resources from institutional investors, injecting strong momentum into its development.
The Prosperity of the DeFi Ecosystem: The DeFi sector is expected to reach unprecedented scale in 2025, and SHIB has already taken solid steps in this area, beginning to explore diversified application scenarios such as lending and staking. If SHIB can find its position in the DeFi wave, further deepen its layout and innovation in this field, such as launching more attractive financial products and services, and optimizing user experience, then its influence and value in the DeFi ecosystem will continue to rise, driving its price increase and market share expansion.
The Continuous Fermentation of Community Power: SHIB has a large and active community of supporters, which is one of its great assets! In 2025, the power of the community is likely to become even more prominent. Community members may help SHIB expand its influence and attract new users through spontaneous promotion, innovative collaborations, and other means. For example, the community can organize some online and offline promotional activities or collaborate with other projects and brands to launch interesting activities and products, allowing more people to learn about and recognize SHIB. A strong community consensus will provide strong support for SHIB's price and make SHIB more competitive in the market.
Ai16z's Market Capitalization Surpasses $1.6 Billion, Analysts Warn of a 20% Rise in AI16Z
Ai16z is a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) led by artificial intelligence (AI) agents, and its market capitalization has surpassed $1.6 billion after the release of new Launchpad proposals. According to its updated tokenomics, the project plans to create a Launchpad for its AI projects inspired by the open-source Pump.fun.
Fees generated by the platform will be used to repurchase AI16Z tokens from the market and create liquidity mining pools. The project also plans to utilize the token as the base currency within its ecosystem operated by agents. The updated tokenomics and the increase in the utility of the AI16Z token seem to have attracted investor interest. After the project shared plans to update its tokenomics to add more utility to its native token, AI16Z deviated from the broader cryptocurrency market downturn.
Cryptocurrency and mainstream hotspots are increasingly resembling each other. Global financial hotspots and technological innovations can influence market sentiment here, as well as the trends of various cryptocurrencies. This year has already shown numerous examples where suddenly emerging hotspots directly disrupted the trends of certain coins, accelerating everything. We must remain vigilant and not be misled by these hotspots.
The correlation between Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market may be weakening. They might start to move independently, no longer rising and falling together as before. This poses both risks and opportunities for us; we need to learn to diversify our investments and not put all our eggs in one basket. Next year, Americans and South Koreans are likely to remain the main forces in the cryptocurrency market. However, if the Bank of Japan really starts to flood the market, unexpected funds may pour in, and we need to be prepared.
When there is a lot of hot money, we can speculate on concepts and chase hotspots, but when hot money is scarce, we need to be more pragmatic and focus on projects with strong fundamentals, stable growth, and high profits. By the end of the year, let's see which projects have exaggerated stories; we might find treasures. After the SEC replaces ZX, the reform and opening up of cryptocurrencies may accelerate. We need to pay attention after February to see if cryptocurrency projects will make any significant moves. They might be holding back a bunch of 'good news that would originally be classified as securities.'