Today someone asked me why the cryptocurrency dropped after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?

Why is that? It's actually quite simple, it's all about expectations. The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates was anticipated by the vast majority, which is called meeting expectations. Meeting expectations often doesn't lead to significant fluctuations. The market needs something beyond expectations; for example, if the Federal Reserve said they would hold Bitcoin, you would see it rise to 150,000 the very next day. On the contrary, if the Federal Reserve suddenly states, "We will not hold Bitcoin," this is called falling short of expectations, which is why the market drops.

However, what I want to say is that such questions and their answers don't really matter much for ordinary cryptocurrency traders like us.

Generally, cryptocurrency trading is divided into short-term and long-term. Let's talk about long-term first. For long-term players, what impact do such news have? As a long-term player, I can tell you that it has no impact at all. The degree of influence is just too negligible. After all, it hasn’t brought about a large flow of funds, nor has it significantly changed future policies. So why care about it?

As for short-term trading, it’s actually not useful either because in such situations, you can't react in time, and by the time you do, the drop has already happened. Furthermore, there's a high probability that you would sell at or short at the lowest point, which is worse than being completely unaware. This is the real black swan, an event that is completely unpredictable.

So, don’t ask me such questions anymore; they’re of no use.

As for the recent hot news, Zhang San was caught using a VPN to trade in cryptocurrencies, fined 15,000, confiscated 90,000 in profits, and confiscated several computers and mobile phones.

This matter is so strange, but so many people still believe it. First of all, with so many computers and mobile phones, is this trading in cryptocurrencies? Do you use so many devices to trade in cryptocurrencies?

Moreover, the administrative penalty decision is fake at first glance, but so many people have reposted it. Can you go online and take a look at the real administrative penalty decision?

No one except those in the cryptocurrency circle can see this on the Internet. What, are we trading in cryptocurrencies in a parallel universe?

If it is just trading in cryptocurrencies, Binance does not use VPNs, and if it is used, many operations cannot be used.

As for this matter, if there is such a gang and these devices, it is not just trading in cryptocurrencies, okay? If you say that they are professional wool-pulling, airdrop-pulling, whitelist-pulling, or quantitative trading, I will believe it instead.

Besides, you are underestimating the people in the cryptocurrency circle by saying that you made a profit of 90,000 yuan. I believe the rumor that 10 million yuan was confiscated.

And this happened in August. Isn't it strange that it is being publicized now?

There are always some people with ulterior motives in the cryptocurrency circle. Be careful. Just trade cryptocurrencies normally on Binance, and nothing will happen to you. Just don't lose everything.

In a bull market, when you feel that the atmosphere around you is mostly cautious and there are a lot of disagreements, it often means that the bull market still has a long way to go. When everyone in the bull market, including yourself, thinks the risks are very small and that there will be a lot more gains, it is often the time of greatest risk.

So just look at the atmosphere in the square now and you'll know that the bull market will last for a while longer.

Something hilarious just happened. Someone on the square posted that their virtual currency was confiscated because they used a VPN. I said it was made up, and he replied that it was true. Then he actually blocked me. Is this a whole package deal of deleting comments and blocking? I checked, and I could only find news about someone getting arrested for drug trafficking using virtual currency, with keywords like VPN and virtual currency.
Let’s just point out something unreasonable: you don’t even need a VPN to access Binance. If you say you got caught because of using a VPN, isn’t that just pure comedy? If you used a VPN for trading virtual currency, I can understand if you used it for other things, like drug trafficking. I can only say that you people understand journalism. There are still some sycophants below, I can't stop laughing.

Some friends look at K-lines and read news every day, then panic and feel anxious. Aren't you just making things difficult for yourself?

There must be a reason for a drop, and a rise can't just happen for no reason, asking everywhere why? If your curiosity was really that high, you wouldn't be getting harvested all day.

Working hard in the wrong place can backfire.

Humans cannot accept that something happens without a reason, so they will always find a reason for themselves to feel at ease, regardless of whether that reason is true.

If you want to watch news and information to speculate on coins, I advise you to wake up. The vast majority of news is lagging; even if it has an impact, the coin price moves first, and you find out later, then you act. Doesn't that mean you're always one step behind?

All kinds of information and news need long-term comprehensive analysis. But people often focus on the short-term impact of information, neglecting the long-term effects.

Of course, these speculators love to trade short-term. That's why they end up losing a lot.

In 2016, all exchanges had direct deposit and withdrawal. Can you guess why Binance doesn't use this method?

The simplest way to make money is to invest in mainstream coins after the market fluctuates at a low point during a bear market. It's really hard to lose money if you truly want to.

Watching the various fancy performances of the charlatans in the square is a great pleasure for me. A group of charlatans danced and told you clearly how the short-term decline, the medium-term trend, and the long-term situation will be. There are also various candlesticks that draw K-line charts, which reminds me of the uncles who stare at the lottery trend chart every day at the lottery station.

I just want to say that if they are really so accurate, they will not publish it.

There are mostly two ways to make money. One is the method or information that only a few people master. The operation is not complicated. You can learn it if you know it. Those who master it will definitely avoid letting more people know it. For example, I learned to move bricks by myself in 2017, from Yunbi to the foreign B station, with an average of more than 10,000 per day. Of course, I am telling you this now to say that this method is no longer useful.

The second method is a method that everyone knows, but it is difficult to do.
For example, buying at a low price in a bear market and selling at a high price in a bull market is almost risk-free, but how many people can do it?

The methods that ordinary people look for are mostly the first total, so many people disguise themselves as the first type to attract you and then find ways to harvest you later.

People always say that Bitcoin is in a high position fluctuation, do you have any misunderstanding about fluctuation?

Since entering the cryptocurrency world, I have maintained a principle: Bitcoin should account for more than half of my holdings.

Bitcoin is the core of the cryptocurrency world; it is the foundation of the crypto space. Without Bitcoin, there would be no cryptocurrency world. I can still recall the excitement I felt when I first started learning about Bitcoin.

Due to Bitcoin's continuous rise, my holdings have increased from 50% to 70%. Compared to the lamentations in the market, I am quite pleased.

There will likely be a season of altcoins, but I wouldn’t dare to say for sure. After all, seeking a sword on a boat is futile. However, regardless of whether it happens or not, please do not bet on it happening immediately. A large-scale altcoin season often begins after the mainstream coins have risen, such as ETH, SOL, etc., and it typically presents as a rotation, where one rises just as another has finished its run. Therefore, there is no need to rush.

The market does not change overnight; just because you are a bit slow does not mean you will miss the opportunity. Often, the biggest reason for losses is actually being too quick—wanting to operate quickly, make money quickly, and achieve financial freedom quickly. As a result, many in the crypto space choose high-leverage futures, short-term trades, and focus on candlestick charts rather than the overall market trends. Then they end up losing everything. It’s common to see accounts with only tens of thousands or even thousands of dollars, yet they are frantically increasing their leverage. Then they are on the verge of liquidation, shouting, 'What should I do?!'

The so-called slowness is actually speed. Understanding this principle is essential to steadily making money in the cryptocurrency world.

Previously, I personally predicted that Bitcoin would reach between 130,000 and 150,000 this time. But with the changes in the environment in the past few months, I have raised this prediction without any specific reason.

Of course, this is purely subjective, without any objective prediction.

Before, I saw someone calculate that less than 100,000 is the top number. He only looks at the K-line and not the environment, which is a blind spot.

I prefer to include all known factors, including but not limited to: K-line, of course, at least in months; external environmental factors; market heat; mainstream market acceptance; possible policy impact in the future, etc., plus these years of observation and experience in the currency circle, I have a rough idea in my mind.

Of course, it is still very subjective. But at least so far my strategy is to start reducing positions at around 130,000, and reduce to one-third of the position at around 150,000. At that time, I will only have Bitcoin in my hand, which is a family heirloom, and I will probably not sell it.

There may be some changes later as various factors continue to change. I will probably sell it at a high probability, but I only make the money I can make, and the rest is beyond my ability, so there is nothing to regret. But after all, I have a bottom position, so it won't be too hard. After all, I have these bitcoins since 2016, so it doesn't matter.

Then I will buy them back in the bear market, and a new round of layout will begin again. Making money in the long cycle of the currency circle may be the easiest way. After all, if you have experienced the rise from 4000 to 600,000, you will not look down on these short-term melons and two dates.

If you dare to draw a line just because someone gives you a strategy or a point, I suggest you don't play contracts.
There are all kinds of charlatans in the square, and they are mixed.
There are those who are trapped and want others to help them; there are those who are stubborn and become two-faced; there are those who pull you into the group and want to suck your blood for a long time; there are also a group of people who are just conspicuous and are just jumping around.
In such a complex social environment, if you don't have any judgment ability, you are just wasting your money.

I usually don't look at technical indicators. You can actually see a lot of similar words in the square.
For example, "I didn't expect it", "This time it exceeded expectations", "The technical indicators are useless now", "It's different from before", etc.
If the technical indicators are so useful, this situation should not always occur. After all, even one "technical indicator is useless" may be fatal.
In this round of bull market, how many people sold out and missed the opportunity because of technical indicators. It can only be a reference. Don't be too superstitious about it. Especially when the big bull market and the big bear market come.

Many people say that Trump's inauguration = good news materializing, so it has peaked. I will mention three points for you to judge yourself.
First, Trump has not yet taken office, and all policies have not been released. You wouldn't naively believe that what a president says before taking office can definitely be achieved, right? So this is called good news not yet materialized.
Second, Trump's cabinet members have not been finalized. If the cabinet members are particularly favorable to Bitcoin, for example, if the appointed treasury secretary has a preference for Bitcoin, then that would still be a round of good news.
Finally, after Trump takes office, in the short term, it is very favorable for the U.S. stock market, and the U.S. stock market has spillover effects on the cryptocurrency market.
Judge for yourself.

I've wanted to complain about this for a long time; a whole bunch of people are talking about black swans. Over 95% of people have no idea what a black swan is.
The most important concept of a black swan is that it is an event that no one can predict. If someone can predict it, then it's not a black swan; it's a gray rhino.
There are always people saying that the crash of Bitcoin is a black swan; there's a term in Northeast China that fits you perfectly, called 'abuse of the term'.

You might not believe it, but I still have Bitcoin from 2016. Back then it was over 4000 each. Did you really earn more by going back and forth than by doing nothing?

Here’s a hint: there’s no reason in the square, or it’s just like drawing a random picture to start predicting the market, the more certain and confident they appear, the more nonsense it is. Essentially, it’s just that your backside decides your mind.
It’s highly likely they are about to face a liquidation and are panicking without a plan, or they are perfectly missing the opportunity to get on the boat. Don’t believe it, just treat it as entertainment.

Since 2016, experienced players who have been buying coins are really used to this one-sided rising market.

This kind of market is where most spot holders are collectively bullish, lacking liquidity, and a slight purchase of spot will drive the price up.

Have there been few liquidations in the square these days? If you want to short, you might as well wait for the big trend to short; doing it now can't even be called gambling, it's just giving away money. What’s the difference between shorting now and guessing the peak? The trend is bullish, and if you can guess the peak so accurately, shouldn’t you be going long?