Previously, I personally predicted that Bitcoin would reach between 130,000 and 150,000 this time. But with the changes in the environment in the past few months, I have raised this prediction without any specific reason.
Of course, this is purely subjective, without any objective prediction.
Before, I saw someone calculate that less than 100,000 is the top number. He only looks at the K-line and not the environment, which is a blind spot.
I prefer to include all known factors, including but not limited to: K-line, of course, at least in months; external environmental factors; market heat; mainstream market acceptance; possible policy impact in the future, etc., plus these years of observation and experience in the currency circle, I have a rough idea in my mind.
Of course, it is still very subjective. But at least so far my strategy is to start reducing positions at around 130,000, and reduce to one-third of the position at around 150,000. At that time, I will only have Bitcoin in my hand, which is a family heirloom, and I will probably not sell it.
There may be some changes later as various factors continue to change. I will probably sell it at a high probability, but I only make the money I can make, and the rest is beyond my ability, so there is nothing to regret. But after all, I have a bottom position, so it won't be too hard. After all, I have these bitcoins since 2016, so it doesn't matter.
Then I will buy them back in the bear market, and a new round of layout will begin again. Making money in the long cycle of the currency circle may be the easiest way. After all, if you have experienced the rise from 4000 to 600,000, you will not look down on these short-term melons and two dates.