西铭
@sailming
炒币即赌博，概率贯始终；决定胜败的是岀场与风控，入场最次要。欢迎币友交流，\/: MACDE8
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Contract opposite direction conditional order, a way to prevent wrong exchange losses:
No matter how much analysis we do, the probability of making mistakes remains high, especially in technical analysis, which is often incorrect; this is the norm. Don't talk about your accuracy rate being 80% or 90%; that's just because you don't have enough trades.
A way to reduce losses is to place a reverse order a little further out from the initial stop-loss point. For example, I just entered a long position with a 2% risk at $BNB on a 1-hour timeframe, with a stop-loss at 689.5. I might be wrong, just like yesterday when I entered a long position at 725.5 with a stop-loss at 719.5, but I wanted to take a break. To prevent mistakes, I placed a reverse order at the 2% position below (since the distance from entry to stop-loss is about 1%, I set the reverse order at 710.95, which is double the stop-loss distance). I woke up in the middle of the night to see that it had dropped to around 702, the original order was triggered and stopped out, resulting in a loss, but the reverse order was executed, making a profit of 1.213%, while the original loss was just about 0.008%.
Do you understand what I mean? Remember, the reverse order should be placed a bit further out to avoid being hit from both sides by false breakouts. As soon as the reverse order is triggered, close the original losing position immediately, because this order is meant to mitigate losses. You shouldn’t hold onto it just because it’s showing a profit. Of course, if you encounter a spike in the market, there’s nothing you can do; it’s impossible to be foolproof. The solution is to avoid cryptocurrencies that have a lot of historical spikes.
No matter how much analysis we do, the probability of making mistakes remains high, especially in technical analysis, which is often incorrect; this is the norm. Don't talk about your accuracy rate being 80% or 90%; that's just because you don't have enough trades.
A way to reduce losses is to place a reverse order a little further out from the initial stop-loss point. For example, I just entered a long position with a 2% risk at $BNB on a 1-hour timeframe, with a stop-loss at 689.5. I might be wrong, just like yesterday when I entered a long position at 725.5 with a stop-loss at 719.5, but I wanted to take a break. To prevent mistakes, I placed a reverse order at the 2% position below (since the distance from entry to stop-loss is about 1%, I set the reverse order at 710.95, which is double the stop-loss distance). I woke up in the middle of the night to see that it had dropped to around 702, the original order was triggered and stopped out, resulting in a loss, but the reverse order was executed, making a profit of 1.213%, while the original loss was just about 0.008%.
Do you understand what I mean? Remember, the reverse order should be placed a bit further out to avoid being hit from both sides by false breakouts. As soon as the reverse order is triggered, close the original losing position immediately, because this order is meant to mitigate losses. You shouldn’t hold onto it just because it’s showing a profit. Of course, if you encounter a spike in the market, there’s nothing you can do; it’s impossible to be foolproof. The solution is to avoid cryptocurrencies that have a lot of historical spikes.
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What do I want to say today? Let's talk about operating systems, cryptocurrencies, futures, and stocks; they are all similar. The simpler the profit model, the easier it is to use. In the cryptocurrency market, I currently use only two lines: EMA13 and EMA26, with no other indicators. My profit model is very simple; of course, I often make mistakes, which is unavoidable and a necessary cost to bear. However, when successful, measured by straight-line distance, the stop loss is at the entry price, and from entry to exit, it is at least 1:3 to 4-5. After accounting for the necessary tolerance of floating profit loss, the profit and loss ratio is roughly 2.6:1.
What does that mean? You can understand the odds as 1 to 2.6, meaning that a 30% success rate breaks even (after deducting fund fees and closing costs). Currently, my success rate is about 40%, of course, the more data, the more accurate it becomes. According to historical assessments, it is roughly around 38%. Quite low, right? This is the essence of DU BO; the probability cannot be broken through, so we find ways to think about it from the odds perspective. In traditional games, the amount won or lost each time is fixed, while in financial speculation, theoretically, the odds have no upper limit. This is what makes it more attractive than traditional gambling.
What does that mean? You can understand the odds as 1 to 2.6, meaning that a 30% success rate breaks even (after deducting fund fees and closing costs). Currently, my success rate is about 40%, of course, the more data, the more accurate it becomes. According to historical assessments, it is roughly around 38%. Quite low, right? This is the essence of DU BO; the probability cannot be broken through, so we find ways to think about it from the odds perspective. In traditional games, the amount won or lost each time is fixed, while in financial speculation, theoretically, the odds have no upper limit. This is what makes it more attractive than traditional gambling.
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Testing a one-hour cycle trading system for chasing gains and cutting losses. Since it is not possible to use programming methods for statistics, I can only observe for two weeks. Today officially starts testing with a small amount of capital. The test data includes 100 operations for chasing gains and 100 operations for cutting losses. Then, I will statistically analyze the number of profitable trades, the number of losing trades, the average profit per trade, the average loss per trade, and the overall profit and loss situation. Based on the observations and simple statistics from the past two weeks, the profit-loss ratio looks good. Of course, it needs to be verified and adjusted in real trading. Everyone is welcome to watch. If the results are ideal, I will announce the model.
$1000CAT $DEXE $BTC
$1000CAT $DEXE $BTC
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Cryptocurrency Trading Techniques Discussion - Triple Filter System
Using Elder's triple filter system concept, the reason I can never shape my system is that I haven't clearly considered the exit issue.
In actual validation, it may be a parameter adjustment issue. After determining the long-term trend, the use of the KDJ indicator in the operation period is not ideal. If the slope of the MACD bars is also used as the entry basis, one must wait until the current red bar turns to a green bar and contracts before entering. During this process, a significant portion of the rise would be lost, possibly entering at the last segment of the rise, which is not satisfactory in terms of odds.
In actual validation, it may be a parameter adjustment issue. After determining the long-term trend, the use of the KDJ indicator in the operation period is not ideal. If the slope of the MACD bars is also used as the entry basis, one must wait until the current red bar turns to a green bar and contracts before entering. During this process, a significant portion of the rise would be lost, possibly entering at the last segment of the rise, which is not satisfactory in terms of odds.
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Cryptocurrency trading is gambling. If you lose, you lose. If you refuse to stop loss, you will definitely die miserably. The day before yesterday, I saw a post in the square. It seemed to be a girl. She said that if you are wrong, you should open a position in the opposite direction. It can be regarded as a little essence of gambling. Haha, there was a futures trader before, also a lady. She opened a position every day according to her mood, or decided by flipping a coin. When the stop loss was triggered, she immediately opened a reverse order. If it was triggered again, she would rest and make a lot of money. Note that her big money is cumulative, unlike you who think you are awesome after winning a single bet.
In fact, this is also a profit model. What does she only do? If she bets in the right direction for the first time, she will make money. If she bets in the wrong direction, she will lose money. She will bet in the opposite direction and make money if she is right. If she is wrong, it means that the trend does not conform to her profit model, so she will rest. Of course, she must have done probability statistics and corresponding fund management, such as how much profit is the average for a successful one, how much loss is the loss for a failed one, and how much profit is the profit under the statistical results of a larger sample. As long as the expected value is positive, the longer you play, the more you earn. Probability requires a lot of repetitions to approach the average value. Therefore, she doesn't care whether she makes a profit or a loss this time. Losing is normal. As long as she continues to operate consistently, probability will make her make money in the end.
What do I want to say? The entry skills that you have exhausted your brains to study are the least important to others.
$BTC $DOGE $ACA
#ATA涨势分析
In fact, this is also a profit model. What does she only do? If she bets in the right direction for the first time, she will make money. If she bets in the wrong direction, she will lose money. She will bet in the opposite direction and make money if she is right. If she is wrong, it means that the trend does not conform to her profit model, so she will rest. Of course, she must have done probability statistics and corresponding fund management, such as how much profit is the average for a successful one, how much loss is the loss for a failed one, and how much profit is the profit under the statistical results of a larger sample. As long as the expected value is positive, the longer you play, the more you earn. Probability requires a lot of repetitions to approach the average value. Therefore, she doesn't care whether she makes a profit or a loss this time. Losing is normal. As long as she continues to operate consistently, probability will make her make money in the end.
What do I want to say? The entry skills that you have exhausted your brains to study are the least important to others.
$BTC $DOGE $ACA
#ATA涨势分析
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The $BTC weekly line and the daily line have a large gap between the main moving averages, and there is no support formed between them. Generally speaking, the price range between two main moving averages is a consensus area for bullish and bearish sentiments. Therefore, even if it retraces to 1/3 of the consensus area, it will still be below 88000, possibly even dropping below 85000. I maintain my original viewpoint of being bearish on Bitcoin to the 88000-85000 range, and this will happen within this week.
At the same time, I am bearish on $AI , at least below 0.51.
At the same time, I am bearish on $AI , at least below 0.51.
88900
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I said $ACA is a doubling coin, I forgot to mention that I trade on a daily basis. Many people panic at the first pullback. How many coins have you seen that rise straight up? Including $BTC , I judged based on technical analysis that it would pull back to the 88000-85000 range. Yesterday it surged to 95000 and got quite pleased. Sigh, I also judged $KMD earlier to be a doubling coin and maintain my original judgment. Of course, I'm not a god, so I can't be right about everything. We're playing probabilities; I also said that if four out of twelve coins prove correct, then it’s a big profit.
For those playing with leverage, don't start too high, 2x is good, and you can increase it when the price rises. 50% space is enough. You have to know that coins that surge violently have significant volatility. Those with high leverage are just asking for trouble; you can use low leverage and then increase your position when you're in profit.
#2025比特币价格预测
For those playing with leverage, don't start too high, 2x is good, and you can increase it when the price rises. 50% space is enough. You have to know that coins that surge violently have significant volatility. Those with high leverage are just asking for trouble; you can use low leverage and then increase your position when you're in profit.
#2025比特币价格预测
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$BTC From a technical point of view, this callback is likely to fall below 90,000 to the range of 88,000-85,000. Friends who have made profits in the early stage are advised to close their positions and not hold them tightly. For example, when it is around 88,000, buy a batch of 2,000 points at intervals, and buy a batch of 10 batches for every 2,000 points increase or decrease. This means that if you expect it to fall to 70,000, it is safe enough.
#比特币走势分析 #BTC走势分析
#比特币走势分析 #BTC走势分析
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$KMD is also in my observation pool of 12 doubling coins, today it rose by 8%. From a technical perspective, the weekly price has stayed above the MA26 line for seven consecutive weeks, and the moving averages are turning upward. If nothing unexpected happens, this week could close with a piercing line or engulfing line. The daily moving averages are also about to form a golden cross. Based on my previous analysis, this coin has reached an entry point. The suggestion for leverage is not to exceed three times, leaving a 33% room for retracement to prevent pin bars. Based on experience, the common range for pin bars is primarily above five times leverage, with a common range of 20%-25%. Of course, since most of my funds are concentrated in $ACA , friends tracking this coin should not miss out.
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$DOGE From a technical perspective, both the weekly and daily charts are declining, so I do not recommend entering the spot market now. Of course, shorting is also not very clear. If there are better opportunities, why hang on one tree? Look for coins with a market value around 50 million, observe using the weekly chart, and find coins whose prices are still within 50% of the opening price during the first week at the upper line, especially those where the MA99 has flattened from a downward trend. A threefold increase is a starting point, but it won't increase linearly; there will definitely be large fluctuations. Therefore, for spot trading, hold on. If using contracts, start with 1-2 times leverage and then increase it when the price rises.
The previous AVA, UTK, and the newly launched ACA, etc., I forgot some, I selected 12 of them, three or four of which experienced a surge with these characteristics, including the now launched ACA, which I just added 10,000 USDT to. BTC is currently in a pullback, but the overall trend in the next four years will inevitably be upward, indicating that the cryptocurrency market has actually entered a longer bull market. Against this backdrop, those coins that surged sharply after launching and then fell to the opening price of the first week, oscillating within a 50% range for one to two years, will definitely take advantage of the situation and push the prices higher, making it easier to harvest profits later.
The previous AVA, UTK, and the newly launched ACA, etc., I forgot some, I selected 12 of them, three or four of which experienced a surge with these characteristics, including the now launched ACA, which I just added 10,000 USDT to. BTC is currently in a pullback, but the overall trend in the next four years will inevitably be upward, indicating that the cryptocurrency market has actually entered a longer bull market. Against this backdrop, those coins that surged sharply after launching and then fell to the opening price of the first week, oscillating within a 50% range for one to two years, will definitely take advantage of the situation and push the prices higher, making it easier to harvest profits later.
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The currency that multiplies N times is about to appear, adding 10,000 U to $ACA. I have previously analyzed its "fundamentals", of course, my concept of fundamentals is different from that of others. For details, refer to the information I posted earlier. The judgment of 12 doubling coins has already proven 4.
#2025加密趋势预测 #GMT热度飙升 #币安Alpha公布第8批项目 #FlokiETP流动性提案通过 #加密市场调整
#2025加密趋势预测 #GMT热度飙升 #币安Alpha公布第8批项目 #FlokiETP流动性提案通过 #加密市场调整
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$ACA The technical side is very strong, the weekly moving average is golden cross, the price has been standing on the MA26 line of last week for several weeks, showing a piercing pattern, and the daily line is a big positive. Combined with my previous judgment, this coin is likely to double N times in the near future (within half a year).
#2025加密趋势预测 #GMT热度飙升 #
#2025加密趋势预测 #GMT热度飙升 #
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Many people estimate that they want to take Powell down, hehe, a single sentence, three hundred million explosive orders (is it really that many?), this is the reason why I do not support contract leverage exceeding three times. Of course, if you are doing intraday short trades, just ignore what I said. My original judgment remains: KMD, AST, WING, ACA, TKO, FUN, OG, FIS, ALCX have a high probability of surging several times in the near future. Please refer to my previous short messages for the logic behind my judgment.
$KMD $ALCX $ACA
#美联储放鹰 #加密市场回调 #圣诞行情预测 #加密用户突破1800万 #币安Alpha项目公布
$KMD $ALCX $ACA
#美联储放鹰 #加密市场回调 #圣诞行情预测 #加密用户突破1800万 #币安Alpha项目公布
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Short-term Trading Techniques for Cryptocurrency Contracts: How to Grasp Market Bullish and Bearish Sentiment?
As shown, Binance's big data statistics are very useful and serve as a window to observe the current market's bullish and bearish sentiment. Based on experience, if the number of rising coins exceeds 900, look for opportunities to go long, not short; conversely, if the number of declining coins exceeds 900, look for opportunities to go short, not long.
Short-term trading is about sentiment, while medium to long-term trading follows the trend. Using this big data, there is a simple and straightforward operational plan. I originally made a short video to share, but I don't know if it was Binance's fault for not being complete or if I couldn't find the video publishing outlet, or if my low level restricted access, so I couldn't upload it. I'll make a post next time when I find the time.
It's best to check this big data daily to grasp the rhythm of turning from bearish to bullish or from bullish to bearish; otherwise, if the market is bearish like now, you might enter and immediately switch to bullish, timing is also very important.
#币安Alpha项目公布 #市场调整後的机会？ #USUAL现货上线币安 #炒币心得 #炒币技巧 $BTC $SOL $ACA
As shown, Binance's big data statistics are very useful and serve as a window to observe the current market's bullish and bearish sentiment. Based on experience, if the number of rising coins exceeds 900, look for opportunities to go long, not short; conversely, if the number of declining coins exceeds 900, look for opportunities to go short, not long.
Short-term trading is about sentiment, while medium to long-term trading follows the trend. Using this big data, there is a simple and straightforward operational plan. I originally made a short video to share, but I don't know if it was Binance's fault for not being complete or if I couldn't find the video publishing outlet, or if my low level restricted access, so I couldn't upload it. I'll make a post next time when I find the time.
It's best to check this big data daily to grasp the rhythm of turning from bearish to bullish or from bullish to bearish; otherwise, if the market is bearish like now, you might enter and immediately switch to bullish, timing is also very important.
#币安Alpha项目公布 #市场调整後的机会？ #USUAL现货上线币安 #炒币心得 #炒币技巧 $BTC $SOL $ACA
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KMD has been priced lower than the listing price on Binance since 2022, and various conditions meet those previously observed for the same batch of ACA.UTK (refer to my last two messages for specifics). There is hope for a recent surge, potentially increasing several times. It is recommended to use a leverage of up to three times, as caution is advised against price spikes.
$KMD $ACA $UTK
$KMD $ACA $UTK
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In the recent short message, I listed several coins that are highly likely to double in the near future, the logic is as follows: BTC is about to break 110,000, and the driving reason is well known - Trump's election. For the next four years, as long as Trump is in power, the crypto market will be in a bull market. In this context, those coins that have been hovering around their listing price for over a year, with a market cap of less than 100 million and currently over 40 million, will definitely take advantage of this situation to boost their prices. Regardless of whether the market goes up or down later, they can still profit from retail investors. Will they give up this tool for harvesting profits? Will they not utilize this background to reap a wave or even several waves? What is fundamental analysis? This is it! $ETH $UTK $ALCX #比特币冲向11万？ #加密用户突破1800万 #USUAL现货开盘预测
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AVA, UTK surged sharply, these two coins validated my speculation, the next batch likely to rise several times is KMD, AST, WING, ACA, TKO, FUN, OG, FIS, ALCX and let's see the results, this batch has four that proved to be very profitable. $UTK $AVA #BTC重回关键位置后走势